Polyester Filament Two Quarter Meet 4 Wave Market Rebound, Cloth Boss For Raw Material Price Rise "Pay"

This is a story of love and kill in raw materials and weaving Market.

After last year's massive commodity Daniel market, the price of polyester products this year can be said to have been falling all the way, making the market participants somewhat muddled, but recently, the "weekend quotes" of polyester filament have not been anticipated. In the second quarter, the polyester filament market ushered in the 4 wave of market rebound (the end of April, the end of May, the beginning of June and the middle of June). After experiencing the continuous volume of production and marketing, the stock of polyester enterprises dropped significantly. According to statistics, as of June 19th, POY stocks fell to 4-8 days, FDY stocks fell to 10-15 days, and DTY stocks fell to 18-24 days, the lowest in nearly 2 months.

Market participants seem to have been accustomed to polyester filament every time is "a few days travel" quotes, after all, "gold master dad" is not rich at hand, although the upstream cost side has a positive boost, crude oil rebound, PTA device recently centralized maintenance, the whole polyester raw material market has stopped, for polyester filament long bottomed, but downstream can not buy the raw material market trend has played a larger, or even a key role. According to the author's visit, recently, the mentality of cloth owners is mainly attributed to the following two points:

01

Raw material prices are low, and buying will not lose money.

Compared to last August, the raw material market was "no risk" to pull up. This year's raw material prices appear to be of a low profile. From the chart of polyester filament price chart above, we can see that at present, polyester filament products have been low for nearly a year, which is also causing many problems. Spin The reasons why the boss buys more or less raw materials.

"At present, raw materials are at a low level, even if they are stacked at home at this price, they will not be so devalued as they did last year." Wujiang area textile boss Chen said. According to statistics, at present, the average price of FDY150D is 8100 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the year, it dropped by 850 yuan / ton, and other products also dropped to varying degrees.

02

Raw material inventory is at a low level, and production should be used anyway.

In fact, every time the price of the polyester filament market is rising, the downstream is very cooperative. The main reason is that after the Spring Festival to the Qingming Festival, the market has not released a lot of demand signals, and the purchasers of the lower reaches are cautious about the order of the fabrics, which has led to the fact that the market is not up to date in 3-4 this year. The market is generally in a general mood, and the stock of the factory is beginning to accumulate.

As market performance continued to slack, raw material prices fell and fell again, resulting in weaving factories purchasing on demand, and raw materials were generally purchased on demand. It is reported that in early June, most of the raw materials of weaving factories were stored for 7-10 days. After two rounds of procurement, raw materials inventory rose to 10-15 days, which was low for manufacturers who had been stockpiling for 15-20 days.

In addition, from the start up rate, the current market opening rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is relatively high, especially in the Shengze market, the water jet looms are maintained at 8-9. Under the high load operation, the purchase of raw materials is just needed. This explains that the manufacturers will replenish the goods frequently. But this year, the inventory of the weaving factories is in the same period of high position, and the inventory is difficult to cash in, which results in the prudent use of funds for the enterprises and the purchase of raw materials. So the production and sale of polyester products usually end after two to three days.

Explains why cloth boss has recently been paying for the price of raw materials. Another problem that even bothers you is the following: in the environment of high inventory and low demand, the weaving factory is still working hard behind the production because the order needs to improve.

Last week, in Changshu, Xiaoshao and Shengze, the market issued a "different" voice: the market orders slightly improved, and some of the previous weaving factories that were not able to do it received some small orders last week. Some of the manufacturers who made the weaving have more or less orders. Most of the manufacturers' orders on hand can still be achieved by the end of June, and the better manufacturers can do the work at hand now in July.

During the visit, half of the bosses indicated that the current market situation was poor, and production and marketing were difficult to achieve. However, there were still some enterprises who said that although the conventional products were unsalable, they had to do so. brand There is still a planned distribution of orders for textile products.

It can be seen that the market is not so pessimistic as the rumors are so pessimistic under the weakening of the environment. The trend of products is beginning to polarize. Some of the unsalable products have been in the tired inventory stage, while the marketable products can still be flat in the market. After the first half of this year, "the peak season is not prosperous, the off-season is very light", there are individual bosses: "worse then, that's the case."

At least in the eyes of Xiaobian, the textile market is now releasing some positive signals.

1, part of the product orders began to release, "golden nine silver ten" always have just need.

Regardless of whether the "golden nine silver ten" will continue to "discount" in the second half of this year, but the garment industry's rigid demand for fabrics still exists. Although conventional routinely goods are difficult to "turn around" under overcapacity, other products' share in the market is still improving. It is reported that bags and fabrics, silk fabrics, elastic fabrics and other spanactions have been partially smooth.

2, trade relations between China and the United States will be relaxed, and orders will be released one after another.

The United States tariffs on Chinese products actually troubled textile workers for a year, and the frictions continued to escalate in May. Although the market is temporarily uncertain, China's status as a world's processing plant is not easy to shake. The quality of products and long-term tacit understanding are not so easily replaced by Southeast Asia.

In June 18th, the leaders of China and the United States said in telephone calls that the solution to the current differences could be found as early as possible. Many textile workers believe that after a month of wait-and-see period, the early suppressed orders will eventually be issued.

3, the G20 summit is coming, which is conducive to the release of policy benefits.

Every G20 summit will release some favorable policies to the market economy. This year, the global economic environment is not good enough. It is estimated that "visible hands" and "invisible hands" will continue to bring impetus to the market.

4, the short-term change of the RMB exchange rate deserves our attention, and the trend of trade negotiations is an important variable.

Whether or not these factors are signs of improvement or bubble, at least the current market weaving has made many bosses "used to be". Facing the deep and floating market, most of the cloth owners who are down-to-earth in textile business still choose to stick to the industry.

"The market is bad this year, but we will not get down to work. After this year, there may be a different spring next year." Chen Zong said in Wujiang area. At present, the market participants are quietly waiting for the biggest riddle in the first half of the year to announce the "sweater war" in China and the United States.