2019 In The First Half Of This Year, The Price Trend Of Polyester Bottle Will Be Suppressed. How Can We Deduce It In The Second Half?

Two thousand and nineteen The first half of the year is about to end. The domestic market of polyester bottle chips fluctuated in the first half of the year, and the overall price showed a trend of first and then suppressed.

I. Two thousand and nineteen In the first half of 2014, PET bottles were reviewed. Two thousand and nineteen In the first half of 2014, the price trend of domestic PET bottles showed a trend of rising first and then falling. In the first half of the year, the low price of East China market appeared. Six First week of the month 6900-7000 element / The high price point appears after the Qingming Festival. 8600-8700 element / Tons, high and low spreads in the first half One thousand and seven hundred element / Tons.

Figure 12019 price chart of polyester bottle

Source: lung Chung

chart Two Comparison of polyester bottle flakes in East China market

Source: lung Chung

Market performance: 1-4 Month high price: raw material end PTA Go up, drive bottle piece price rise, trader and terminal group get ready before the festival, the market clinch a deal. Two At the beginning of the Spring Festival, it is a small holiday, so the enterprise offer stability is the main. After the festival, the enthusiasm for entering the market is not high, and it is mostly consumed in the pre consumption inventory, and the market atmosphere is not good. along with The downstream manufacturers' inventory is gradually consumed, the PTA price of the cost side is rising sharply, and the peak season for sales is coming. Polyester bottle prices rose to the highest point this year. Eight thousand and seven hundred element / Tons. Installation: Jiangyin Chenggao One Month parking inspection Two month Eleven Day restart One Number line Sixty Million tons, installation load maintenance Three Three lane road installation load Eight Become the left and right sides.

Four End of month to Five The price began to decline in the middle of the month: the price of polyester bottles dropped all the way from high position in this cycle. PTA The weak and sustained support is weak. On the other hand, the tension of international trade relations has led to the weakness of the downstream polyester industry and the pressure of finished products inventory. Because the sales season is high, manufacturers have maintained a high rate of installation and have not actively stopped or overhauled.

Five From late June to the present, the price of bottle flakes is low. PTA Under the influence of high processing fees, the operating rate of enterprises is stable to a high level, and the contradiction between supply and demand is increasing. PTA Prices have dropped sharply. The cost of PET bottles dropped to the lowest level in nearly three years without support from cost side. Six thousand and nine hundred element / Near tonnes. Some downstream believe that prices have fallen to the bottom and begin to bargain for hoarding. At present, the terminal group consumption peak season, the bottle plate manufacturer's shipment increased, the device load is running high, so as to ensure that the sale contract is fulfilled on schedule.

Two. Two thousand and nineteen Profit analysis of PET bottles in the first half of the year:

Figure 32019 gross profit trend chart of polyester bottle in the first half of the year

Source: lung Chung

According to the cost of raw materials, Two thousand and nineteen Average gross profit of PET bottles in the first half of 2014 Two hundred and fifty-one point three six element / Tons, less gross profit than the same period last year. Seven hundred and eighty-nine point six four element / Tons, decrease 75.85% 。 With the recent decline in PET bottle prices, up to Six month Twenty-four Daily PET bottle gross profit reduced Twenty-six point four five element / Near tonnes. Two thousand and eighteen The year is the most frenzied year in the PET bottle market, and the annual average price is Nine thousand three hundred and sixty-seven element / Three factors of price rise: on the one hand, the raw material end. PTA On the other hand, the growth of downstream demand is increasing: the output of soft drinks in the first half of this year is as high as Eight thousand three hundred and ninety-seven point two 10000 tons, an increase year on year 8.3% Moreover, benefiting from the shutdown and overhauling of overseas devices, the supply gap of overseas PET bottles has been opened, and the export volume of China's pet bottles has increased significantly. One hundred and thirty-five 10000 tons, an increase year on year 38.19% 。 Under the support of multiple benefits, the market supply of PET bottles is too tight to meet the downstream demand. Prices have risen sharply, and manufacturers' profits have reached a historical peak. take the reverse into consideration Two thousand and nineteen In 2014, affected by external factors, the polyester industry is vulnerable to adjustment, raw material ends. PTA The average price increased in the first half of last year compared with the same period last year. Six hundred and seventeen element / The increase is 10.85% The average price of ethylene glycol fell in the first half of last year. Two thousand and eight hundred element / Tons or less 36.97% The cost side is not enough supporting the bottle piece, and the downstream demand has not increased significantly, so the price shock is down, resulting in the reduction of factory profits.

Three market forecast for PET bottles in the second half of.2019:

Supply side: new capacity, Dalian Yisheng Sixty Ten thousand tons plan is put into operation in the four quarter. Hainan Yisheng Fifty Ten thousand ton plan Two thousand and nineteen End of year or Two thousand and twenty Start production early this year. At present, the total capacity is One thousand and seventeen 000 tons, effective capacity is: Eight hundred and eighty-five Ten thousand tons. Parking capacity: Liaoyang petrochemical Ten Million tons; Jiangyin Chenggao Two Number line Sixty Ten thousand tons, plan Seven Restart at the end of the month; Jiangsu three lane Twenty 000 tons; Shanghai far spinning. Fifteen Million tons; Guangzhou Pan Asia Seventeen Ten thousand tons; Wuliangye Three Ten thousand tons; Tuen River in Lanshan Two Million tons; Jiangsu Baosheng Five Ten thousand tons. If Dalian Yisheng can go into production smoothly, then Two thousand and nineteen The total capacity of domestic PET bottles reached the end of the year. One thousand and seventy-seven 000 tons, the growth rate of the ring is 5.90% 。 According to long Zhong statistics 2014-2018 Annual capacity growth is 8.38% annually. Two thousand and eighteen Annual capacity growth rate is 13.38% 。 In contrast, Two thousand and nineteen Annual capacity expansion slowed down.

Demand side: the downstream industry is stable, and the probability of adding more demand is not large. The downstream demand for bottle flakes is showing a weak trend. Terminal group said that last year's raw materials tension and price inflation, resulting in money can not buy goods, many small and medium-sized factories either stop production or reduce, in order to avoid history repeating, most of the goods have been prepared ahead of schedule this year, new demand is limited. Faced with problems such as hard money recovery, reduced profits, environmental protection and so on this year, the bottle blank industry has become more and more difficult to maintain.

Cost end:

Table 12017-2019 PTA/MEG East China market average price comparison table

Unit: Yuan / ton

Source: lung Chung

PTA : Two thousand and nineteen PTA supply growth was limited in the first half of the year, and the PTA price center increased substantially over the same period last year. Due to constant capacity production, PX- naphtha oil price space smaller, PTA profits to better, higher prices. Affected by international trade relations, the boom of polyester industry declined in 2019, and market confidence was severely frustrated. The overall industrial chain price fell sharply, and orders were insufficient, and the fabric of the weaving end was accumulated significantly. Therefore, the probability of PTA price fall will be greater in the second half.

MEG : The risk of external instability is increasing, and with the development of the domestic glycol plant, the competition for market share will gradually become white hot. Although the inventory of ethylene glycol is gradually decreasing, but the stock is still at a high level, while the demand for polyester is less than that of the same period. Under the pressure of high inventory pressure, there is still a downward trend in the second half of 2019.

Import and export:

Table 22016-2019 comparison table for import and export of PET bottles

Unit: 10000 tons

Source: lung Chung

According to the customs data analysis, Two thousand and nineteen year 1-4 Monthly export volume of PET bottle One hundred and eleven point seven five 10000 tons, an increase year on year Twenty 000 tons, an increase of 21.8% 。 Two thousand and nineteen year 1-4 Monthly imports of PET bottles One point five one 10000 tonnes, year-on-year reduction Zero Point Zero Five 10000 tons, decrease 3.21% 。 Two thousand and nineteen year One Month and Two Monthly exports to the United States account for 0.001% and 0.004% ; Two thousand and nineteen year 1-4 Monthly imports from the United States accounted for: 1.42% , 2.60% , 2.5% , 1.82% 。 Due to many uncertainties in international trade relations, the volume of imports and exports involving the United States will inevitably decrease under pessimism. Based on the import and export data of past years, the export volume of PET bottles is stable or the import volume will decrease slightly.

  Through the price trend of PET bottle Market in the past few years, the market of polyester bottle chips or weak finishing in the second half of 2019. It is estimated that the three quarter will be supported by the increase in terminal demand (mid autumn day and national day), and the price center will remain stable and narrow. But in the four quarter, we still need to pay attention to whether the new capacity is put into production on schedule, the condition of factory maintenance, and the price of polyester bottle is weak or weak.