Has PTA Finally Taken Off And Extended The Last Year'S Inflation In July?

Since June, PTA has stepped out of the trend of "bottom up, stabilization and recovery". Up to now, PTA has broken through 5500 yuan line, and has continued to rebound in the short term. We believe that PTA will be a driving force for the rebound of PTA trend from the cost, supply and demand, macro and other aspects.

So is July coming, will PTA continue to rise in July?

Upstream brings good east wind.

Thanks to a series of macroeconomic news, such as the easing of trade tensions between China and the United States, the possibility of OPEC prolonging the possibility of a reduction in production and the continuing escalation of the conflict between Iraq and the United States, the crude oil market has risen sharply this week. The rise in crude oil and naphtha has partly prevented the PX market from falling.

In the short term, some PX devices are overhauled, such as Fuhua Southern China's 1 million 600 thousand ton / year PX plant parking inspection, planned maintenance to the end of July, etc., coupled with the strong performance of the crude oil market, PX is expected to go up in the short term.

Device maintenance becomes the focus

In mid June, domestic installations were frequently overhauled, coupled with the devices in the same period and the devices to be stopped at the same time. Recently, a total of 12 sets of equipment were cut down and production plans were cut down, which led to the market's short-term supply worries. But from the overhaul plan, most of the devices will resume production at the end of June, especially when the PTA processing fee is back to 1500 yuan / ton. Driven by high profits, the production enthusiasm of PTA will be relatively high. Today, the news of the new 2 million 200 thousand metre installation of new Feng Ming is planned to go into operation in September.

Therefore, the overhaul of equipment is more profitable. With the increase of processing fees, the production enthusiasm of equipment is restored, and the supply of PTA will increase again. So the recent device overhaul has become the focus of excessive speculation in the market.

Demand side, the recent domestic polyester enterprises cut production and reduce production and CO production behavior coexist, overall, the polyester enterprises will start steadily in the near future. Recently, downstream enterprises actively replenishment and stocking, the market is more active, polyester factory due to the current inventory level is low, the opening will continue to be at a high level, short-term demand for PTA will be improved.

Will July continue to rise last year?

This year, compared with last year, there have been significant changes in many aspects, so it is not likely to repeat the last year's market again. The warehouse receipts are several times higher than the same period last year. The same period last year was the trend of going to the Treasury, but this year is indeed a trend of storehouse. Last year, the spot price was strong, and the spot price led the futures price to rise. The spot price was loose this year, and the futures price led the spot price to fall. So we believe that it is unlikely that the last year's big rally will be replicated.

So we predict the July PTA: the macro environment is temporarily stable, but there are many uncertainties. In addition, the installation does not exclude the fact that PTA devices continue to be overloaded or short stop. Fuhai's 4 million 500 thousand ton plant is facing overhaul in early July, and there are still many uncertainties about the outstanding Hang Li line 1.

However, the overall operation of the downstream polyester plants is relatively optimistic, and rigid demand remains. Therefore, it is estimated that the PTA market will remain in the market in July, and the market price will remain at a high level. We should pay close attention to the macro aspect and the change of crude oil in the future market.