Supply And Demand Forecast Or Out Of The Air Cotton Market Or Will Continue To Be Short Control.

The US Department of agriculture will release global supply and demand forecast in July this Thursday. Analysts believe that the USDA may increase global cotton production, and the cotton market will continue to be tightly controlled.

In July 9th, ICE cotton futures fell to a three year low. Cotton's expected high yield and declining consumer growth as well as the setback of US cotton exports were all the fundamentals. Traders also predicted that the US Department of agriculture would increase the end of the U.S. stock market to a 12 year high. Under such circumstances, speculative short bet on cotton prices will continue to fall, and the number of short sellers has reached a new high.

According to Bloomberg commodity index, cotton prices fell 26% in the past year, the worst performing among all 22 commodities. In recent weeks, the pessimism of the market has been further aggravated because the new cotton growth in the United States is ideal, while Sino US trade negotiations are progressed slowly. The US futures brokerage company believes that the current general direction is short selling.

Bloomberg survey shows that analysts generally expect the US Department of agriculture to increase global cotton production next year and reduce global consumption and US cotton exports forecast. In the near future, the new cotton growth in the United States is becoming more and more ideal, and the negative impact on the fundamentals of the new year has increased. Over the past few trading days, ICE futures continued to fall, and the number of funds (futures + options) reached 37665, a record high. Traders believe that the growth of global cotton consumption has slowed down significantly, and there is no optimistic expectation in the Sino US trade negotiations.