Caprolactam Market Review In The First Half Of 2019

One , Two thousand and nineteen Review of price trend in the first half of 2014

One point one On the spot:

chart 12019 Market price trend of caprolactam in 2013

Source: lung Chung

According to long Zhong information statistics, Two thousand and nineteen Caprolactam, East China market, liquid spot prices at the beginning of the year 12400-12500 element / Ton, 1-4 Prices rose in July. Four The month rose to the highest level in six months. Fourteen thousand and three hundred element / Tons; Five After the month, the market fell into a downward trend. Six Month fell to the lowest half year Eleven thousand six hundred and fifty element / Tons accepted.

Two thousand and nineteen year 1-4 In September, the market of caprolactam was on the rise. among 1-2 Month due to downstream PA6 Slicing needs a good atmosphere, especially PA6 Most of the factories were sliced up before the Spring Festival, and the polymerization plants started to work before and after the Spring Festival, supporting the formation of caprolactam. also Two thousand and nineteen year PA6 Aggregate new capacity to release centrally. One June Lun plastics industry added capacity Three point five Million tons, new capacity in Haiyang, Jiangsu Seven Million tons, new production capacity Seven Million tons, along with Seventeen point five With the growth of 10000 tons of capacity, the demand for caprolactam increased, and after the Spring Festival, the supply of superior products in Luxi was reduced, baling Heng and baling petro caprolactam parts were stopped for maintenance. Caprolactam entered a tight supply situation, and the price of caprolactam market rose strongly after the Spring Festival. to Two In late April, the liquid spot price in East China market rose to 13800-14000 element / Tons.

3-4 The caprolactam market was slightly deadlocked in April. downstream PA6 The production capacity of the polymerization plant continues to be put into operation, and the operation of Tongling Jiahe Seven 000 tons, Zhejiang Hengyi production total Twenty-one The demand for caprolactam continues to increase as 10000 tons, plus the Shanxi Lu Bao and Yang coal plant are gradually driving. But downstream PA6 The concentrated release of aggregate capacity has intensified the oversupply of slicing, resulting in downstream production. PA6 The slicing market is showing signs of weakness, and the weakness of downstream follow-up has inhibited the rise of caprolactam market. Three Price of caprolactam in April 13800-14000 element / Tons of shock and wandering. Three At the end of the month, Jiangsu sea power Twenty 10 million tons of caprolactam plant due to the Yancheng Chemical Industrial Park safety inspection accidentally stopped, plus Nanjing East. Twenty The inspection and repair of 10000 tons of equipment made the supply of caprolactam short supply in the short run, and the market price rose slightly again. Fourteen thousand and three hundred element / Tons accepted. Since then, the demand for terminal spinning has not been started yet. PA6 The supply of slices is increasing. PA6 The volume and price of the sliced market are falling down, which is a drag on caprolactam formation. Caprolactam in Shen Yuan, Fujian Forty Maintenance of 10000 tons of equipment, Jiangsu Haili Twenty Ten thousand ton plant parking, Nanjing East Twenty The price is deadlocked in the case of more than 10000 tons of plant parking and heavy load reduction and short stop parking of Yangquan coal plant. Fourteen thousand and three hundred element / Near tonnes.

Five After the month, the caprolactam market has entered a downward path. The weakness of the peripheral economic situation and the escalation of trade frictions have impacted on the demand of downstream spinning industry, and the demand for nylon spinning market is depressed. The negative impact of terminal demand is gradually upward. PA6 In the case of a substantial reduction in the production of the polymerization plant, caprolactam is transferred to the situation of supply exceeding demand, and the price center of gravity drops all the way. Six Eastern China's lowest spot in June 11500-11700 element / Tons rose slightly at the end of the month. 11800-12000 element / Tons accepted.

chart 22017-2019 Monthly average price of Caprolactam

Source: lung Chung

surface 12017-2019 Comparison of annual average price

Unit: Yuan / ton

Source: lung Chung

Contrast 2017-2019 The average monthly price of caprolactam is about 200%. Two thousand and nineteen Caprolactam prices were at a low level for three years. Six The average price of the month is up to now. Eleven thousand eight hundred and twenty-three element / Tons, the price is approaching. Two thousand and seventeen Annual minimum price Eleven thousand four hundred and three element / Tons.

One point two Contractual aspects:

surface 22019 Sinopec's caprolactam listing price statistics

Unit: Yuan / ton

Source: lung Chung

Sinopec Six In August, the price of caprolactam was lowered three times in a row. Eleven thousand and nine hundred element / Ton, for Two thousand and nineteen In the first half of the year, the listing price was low. Six Monthly settlement price Eleven thousand seven hundred and fifty element / Tons.

Two , Two thousand and nineteen Analysis of caprolactam supply in the first half of 2014

Two point one Device placement statistics

Table 32019 new production capacity of caprolactam in China Statistics

Unit: 10000 tons

Source: lung Chung

Two thousand and nineteen In the first half of the year, caprolactam added less capacity, but only Yong Rong. Twenty Million tons of equipment put into operation, Cangzhou Sun Yang expansion Five 10000 tons, total domestic capacity Three hundred and eighty-nine Ten thousand tons (of which stone refining) Ten Million tons of old line, giant Five Million tons of old line for a long time, Fang Ming Ten More than 10000 tons per line for more than one year. Zhejiang Hengyi is still in the second half of the year. Ten Million tons expansion plan, Inner Mongolia Qinghua Twenty Million tons of cyclohexanone and Twenty The 10000 tons caprolactam plant is scheduled to go into operation in the second half of the year.

Two point two Yield analysis

chart 32018-2019 Analysis of caprolactam yield in 2003

Source: lung Chung

According to long Zhong information statistics, Two thousand and nineteen Production of caprolactam in China in the first half of the year is about One hundred and fifty-seven point eight Million tons, an increase over the same period last year. Eighteen point eight one Million tons, an increase 13.53% 。

Two point three Import volume analysis

chart 42018-2019 Analysis of caprolactam import in 2003

Source: Customs Data

According to customs data, Two thousand and nineteen year 1-4 Total import of Caprolactam Six point seven eight 000 tons, less than last year's imports Zero point nine eight 10000 tons, decrease 12.63% 。 Estimate 5-6 Monthly caprolactam import volume Three Near 10000 tons, estimated Two thousand and nineteen In the first half of the year, caprolactam imports were about Nine point seven eight Ten thousand tons.

Three , Two thousand and nineteen Analysis of caprolactam demand in the first half of 2014

The downstream demand for caprolactam is mainly PA6 Slicing and solid caprolactam are two aspects, of which the consumption of solid caprolactam is about 6000-7000 Tons, solid sources of raw materials are mainly giant, Nanjing Oriental, orchid, Shenma, Shijiazhuang and other factories, and some Luxi liquid caprolactam packaging solid, and some imported solid materials. Used for production PA6 Slice consumption accounts for 98% Nearby.

chart 52018-2019 year PA6 Slicing yield statistics

Source: lung Chung

According to long Zhong information statistics, Two thousand and nineteen year 1-6 Month domestic PA6 Slicing yield One hundred and fifty-nine point nine one Million tons, an increase over the same period last year. Fourteen point nine three 10000 tons, growth rate 10.30% 。 among 1-3 The downstream demand is better. PA6 The polymerization plant maintained a relatively high level of start-up. 4-6 The demand for downstream spinning did not start in June. PA6 Output is decreasing gradually.

Two thousand and nineteen year 1-4 Monthly caprolactam export volume is only Forty-seven point six seven Tons, exports are very few.

Four , Two thousand and nineteen Analysis of caprolactam profit in the first half of 2014

chart 62019 Analysis of caprolactam gross profit in the first half of the year

Source: lung Chung

According to long Zhong information statistics, Two thousand and nineteen The average gross profit of caprolactam in the first half of the year One thousand nine hundred and forty-nine point eight element / Tons, compared with the same period last year Three thousand and nine point seven Gross margin reduction One thousand and fifty-nine point nine element / Tons, decrease 35.22% 。 With the recent decline in the price of caprolactam, up to Six month Thirty Daily caprolactam gross profit dropped Three hundred and eighty element / Tons.

Five , Two thousand and nineteen Analysis on Influencing Factors of caprolactam industry in the first half of 2014

from Two thousand and nineteen In the first half of 2014, the overall operation of caprolactam industry, the supply and demand side is the main factor affecting the market. Caprolactam production capacity Three hundred and eighty-nine Ten thousand tons, PA6 Aggregate capacity Two thousand and nineteen Total growth in the first half of the year Seventy Million tons, capacity has reached Four hundred and seventy-eight Million tons, caprolactam theoretical supply gap Eighty-nine 10 000 tons caprolactam -PA6 The matching ratio of polymerization is about 41.5% 。 1-4 Month PA6 Aggregate start-up 70%-80% In the case of caprolactam, the supply of caprolactam is obviously tight. Caprolactam manufacturers have higher bargaining power and can maintain considerable profits. And downstream PA6 After entering into a loss and negative situation, caprolactam is hard to be independent, and the volume and price decrease. After nearly two months of decline, caprolactam also fell to the cost line.

Terminal: as trade friction escalated from last year's Five hundred Increase of 100 million tariff to additional Two thousand Billion tariff, then later Three thousand 100 million tariff list announced, the United States on Chinese enterprises products in the original 10% Increase in tariff base 15% The tariff basically covers most products of textile and clothing, which results in Two thousand and nineteen The demand for textile industry entered the "cold winter" in the second half of the year. Three Demand decreased after the month, and the overall profitability of the nylon industry was difficult.

Two thousand and nineteen In the first half of the year, the cost pressure of caprolactam came mainly from cyclohexanone, and the pressure of pure benzene was relatively small. Pure benzene price 4400-4500 element / Tons of interval operation, although crude oil has risen to 60-70 dollar / But the price of benzene has not risen sharply due to the ease of supply. Moreover, the price difference between pure benzene and caprolactam is large. The price fluctuation of benzene in the first half of the year has little direct effect on the price fluctuation of caprolactam. Cyclohexanone is responsible for the production of ketones. Two thousand and nineteen The price of cyclohexanone in the first half of the year 8000-11000 element / When the interval is running, the profit of the factory with low self sufficiency of cyclohexanone is too small. This also leads to a decline in the production enthusiasm of the external cyclohexanone plant. The factory with larger gaps, such as Nanjing Dongfang and Shenyuan device, has a longer maintenance time.

Six Prediction of caprolactam market development in the late stage

Two thousand and nineteen In the first half of the year, due to the large external margins and the increased risk, the factory's ability to resist risks has a clear advantage. This will drive the factories with upstream and downstream supporting plans to speed up the completion and commissioning of the supporting devices. The production plan of caprolactam in the second half of the year is as follows:

surface 42019 Caprolactam related products expansion plan

Unit: 10000 tons

Source: lung Chung

It is expected that the caprolactam expansion plan will be carried out on schedule as scheduled. PA6 Slicing is already in excess, behind. PA6 The expansion plan may be partially postponed.

Looking at the price trend of caprolactam market in the past few years, Two thousand and seventeen Annual maximum monthly average price Eighteen thousand eight hundred and sixty-seven element / Ton ( Two Monthly minimum monthly average price Eleven thousand four hundred and three element / Ton ( Five Month); Two thousand and eighteen Annual maximum monthly average price Seventeen thousand nine hundred and nineteen element / Ton ( Nine Month, minimum monthly average price Thirteen thousand and thirty-eight element / Ton ( Twelve Month). 2017-2018 Caprolactam in the second half of the year 7-9 The month is basically on the rise.

Two thousand and nineteen year Seven Month, due to G20 Summit releases good news. Three thousand The abolition of tariffs and the resumption of negotiations helped boost commodity markets. Seven Since January, domestic benzene prices have risen all the way, along with the gradual digestion of downstream industry inventory. Six End of month -7 At the beginning of the month, the downstream products were mostly stocked. Seven Prices rose gradually in August.

surface Five Recent price changes of caprolactam related products

Unit: Yuan / ton

Source: lung Chung

Whether the caprolactam market can continue to rise in the late stage still needs to wait for the terminal demand to follow up. if Eight After the month, spinning demand can continue to improve, and the nylon industry is expected to run steadily upward. If demand can not be effectively improved, caprolactam is expected. PA6 Slicing will still oscillate near the break even line in the second half of the year. On the whole, Two thousand and nineteen Because of the weak demand of terminal market, it is difficult to support the high profit situation in the upstream market. Two thousand and nineteen The total profit of cyclohexanone and caprolactam will be narrowed substantially compared with last year.

According to long Zhong information statistics, 2020-2021 The caprolactam project has a new capacity of up to Two hundred and fifty The capacity concentration of caprolactam industry will continue to increase by 10000 tons. Two thousand and twenty The caprolactam market will enter a new competition pattern after the year.