In The First Half Of The Year, Why Is The Textile Market Still So Poor?

This year's textile market is lighter than the past two years. Polyester can not be sold, grey cloth can not be sold, fabrics can not be sold, and even clothes can not be sold.

No one really buys clothes?

Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that in 2019 1-5, garment enterprises above Designated Size completed 9 billion 667 million garment production, down 0.38% from the same period last year.

And from the specific situation:

Domestic sales: according to the National Bureau of statistics, in 2019 1-5, the total retail sales of consumer goods totaled 161332 billion yuan, an increase of 8.1% over the same period last year. Among them, the retail sales of clothing products above the quota reached 397 billion 400 million yuan, an increase of 2.3% over the same period last year.

According to the National Bureau of statistics, in 2019 1-5, the online retail sales of physical goods in China amounted to 30415 billion yuan, an increase of 21.7% over the same period last year. In online retail sales of physical goods, wear commodities increased by 21.2% over the same period last year.

Export: according to the China Customs express, in 2019 1-5, China's apparel and accessories exports totaled 51 billion 277 million US dollars, down 5.5% from the same period last year.

Clothing sales remained stable in the first half of the year, but why has the textile market been so poor since then? What is the crux of this? Xiaobian thinks that all these sales can not seem to offset the market's "inventory failure".

Downstream domestic sales surge but upstream production blowout!

This year's market is a big surprise. Many people in the market are wondering, maybe under such a market situation, a batch of enterprises with no foundation will fall first, and the market supply and demand will improve. So what is the truth?

Xiaobian visited Langxi Industrial Park in Anhui in May. The size of the local loom loom has reached 15000-18000 units, and it is expected to reach the peak of 30 thousand in the next two years. In addition, according to incomplete statistics, over the past two years, more than 200 thousand loom looms have been transferred to northern Jiangsu, Anhui, Hubei, Henan and other places, far exceeding the number of water jet looms eliminated by the traditional textile cluster in the Yangtze River Delta region.

Not only that, but before the first quarter of 2019, the China Textile Machinery Association released the report of the textile machinery market, which showed that the water jet looms in the weaving machinery maintained a high growth trend last year, the sales of rapier looms continued to decline, the sales of circular knitting machines in steady knitting machines increased steadily, and the overall market situation of the knitting machines dropped; printing and dyeing and finishing machinery maintained the development trend of last year; the sales of chemical fiber machinery decreased slightly; the nonwoven machinery market did not recover significantly.

Overcapacity has always been a problem of recent commonplace, and a big reason is that in recent years, more and more factories have been built on the periphery, and the number of machines has expanded exponentially. The production products are mainly conventional products such as polyester, Taffa, Chun Ya spinning, Oxford cloth, chiffon and other low-end goods, leading to a surplus capacity in the market.

Thus, in the next 1-2 years, the total volume of domestic water looms is still on the rise. The oversupply of conventional products is difficult to improve in the short term.

The slow down of exports under the dramatic changes of Global trade: demand has been severely suppressed and the industrial chain has become more cautious.

The change of market development mode also made it difficult for the market to return to the order of last year or even the year before last.

At present, the world is heading for the era of Internet of things, the rapid response of information, the increase of production efficiency, the reduction of terminal customers' stocking, and the diversification of market also make decision deduction. The habit of ordering trades is changing, so the reduction of single volume is also a trend. In addition, from the seasonal demand rule, the demand for half a year has been suppressed.

Coupled with the current instability in the foreign trade market, many people in the market predicted that the outcome of the Sino US trade negotiations after the G20 summit would be good for the foreign trade market, but the fact is that the good news that the United States no longer imposed new tariffs on Chinese products is expected, but the bulk of the expected orders have yet to fall.

Don't compare with last year! That's not normal.

The mentality is mainly related to people's expectations. If expectations are too high, the difference between the final result and the expectation is too great, so it is easy to lose their mental balance.

In the first half of last year, because of the transformation of water jet looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, the "rotten cloth" like spring Asian spinning and polyester taffeta appeared to be in short supply. The daily profit of a water jet loom exceeded 80 yuan. At the same time, there seems to be endless orders in the market. The list is too small to do. The list is too cumbersome to bother to do. Anyway, there will be no shortage of orders.

But that was a special phenomenon in a special period. When the time came back three years ago, the spring Asian spinning and polyester taffeta were famous for their small profits but quick turnover. The stock of grey cloth was not much better than it is now.

If we take the first half of last year as the benchmark, the current textile market can not be described in a simple word, but two years ahead? This is just an ordinary year with relatively poor market.

The market is booming. It is undeniable that the textile market has entered a relatively stagnant state. The market is developing constantly, and the "big order" has begun to change to the direction of "small batch, multi batch". The proportion of functional and differentiated fabrics in the market is getting higher and higher.

Only when we recognize the objective environment, keep our feet on the ground, strive to improve our technological level and maintain a forever progressive heart, can we remain invincible.