Expansion Of Acrylonitrile Industry Accelerates Demand Growth Relatively Slowly.

In recent years, the expansion of acrylonitrile industry in China has been gradually increasing. Due to the supply gap and the production efficiency, the investment enthusiasm of enterprises is still high. It is estimated that by 2025, the domestic acrylonitrile industry will have about 2 million 110 thousand tons of new capacity plan to be put into operation, and it will mainly focus on private refining and chemical enterprises.

China acrylonitrile ready for construction capacity statistics

Unit: 10000 tons / year

With the expansion of acrylonitrile production, downstream demand is also increasing, but the overall growth rate is relatively slow. In the past 2010-2015 years, the average growth rate of acrylonitrile capacity in China has reached 10.5%, while the average growth rate of apparent consumption has been 6.9%. The growth rate of 2016-2018 years' capacity and apparent consumption has slowed down, and the performance has basically been synchronous, which is 3.1% and 3.2% respectively. It is estimated that the average annual growth rate will exceed 20% in 2020-2030 years, and the growth rate of demand is expected to remain below 10%.

Fig. 1 changes in supply and demand data of acrylonitrile in China

Source: lung Chung

At present, the three traditional industries of acrylonitrile downstream are still concentrated in the fields of ABS, acrylic and acrylamide, and consumption accounts for nearly 90% of the total consumption. The most prominent consumer growth is the ABS industry. Thanks to the development of the automotive industry, China's ABS/SAN resin production capacity increased rapidly before 2015, but its operating rate was below 80%. In recent years, the growth rate of ABS capacity has slowed down, and the operating rate has gradually increased to around 90%. In 2018, the total output of ABS in China was about 3 million 500 thousand tons, and the consumption of acrylonitrile was about 875 thousand tons, accounting for 43% of the apparent consumption of acrylonitrile.

Fig. 2 changes in downstream consumption of acrylonitrile

Source: lung Chung

In addition, the acrylamide industry has benefited from the rapid development of the domestic sewage treatment industry, and the consumption of acrylonitrile has also increased year by year. In 2018, the demand for acrylonitrile was about 400 thousand tons, accounting for about 20% of the acrylonitrile consumption structure. The shrinkage of the acrylic fiber industry is constrained by the high cost of technology and raw materials, and its consumption is declining. Since the acrylic fiber industry dropped to second place from the first largest consumption of acrylonitrile in 2015, it will also surpass the acrylamide industry in the future, and the consumption will drop to third place.

The consumption of acrylonitrile in other downstream areas is also not prominent. The NBR and polyether polyols industry is also expanding production. However, due to the small volume and small consumption ratio, the demand for acrylonitrile is limited. Carbon fiber and adiponectin are subject to technical reasons, and the development is still relatively slow. The consumption of acrylonitrile in domestic adiponitrile is still zero at present. The only plant in Shandong, run Xing, was shut down due to a device accident in the commissioning phase in August 2015. The way of localization of adiponectin has stopped abruptly. Recently, Qi Xiang Tengda and China Chemical Co Construction of 200 thousand tons of adiponectin plant information announced, but it is initially understood that the butadiene method will be used to produce adiponectin.

In the future, the capacity growth rate of acrylonitrile industry is obviously larger than that of demand growth. By the end of 2019, the total effective capacity of acrylonitrile in China will reach 2 million 509 thousand tons / year, while the apparent consumption is expected to reach 2 million 310 thousand tons, and the domestic acrylonitrile industry will gradually enter the surplus state.