IMF Downgrades India's Economic Growth Forecast In 2019 And 2020
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) updated the global economic forecast report in July (2019) (World Eco). Nomic Outlook Report) lowered the economic growth rate of India in 2019 and 2020 by 30 basic points, estimated that India's economic growth rate in 2019 was 7%, and in 2020 it was slightly increased to 7.2%. Nevertheless, India is still the fastest growing country in the world's economic growth, followed by the mainland of China.
Faced with the pressure of rising tariffs and insufficient external demand and the sustained structural slowdown of the Chinese economy, the mainland of China is faced with these external shocks. The Chinese mainland government has launched a series of incentive policies to promote economic growth. IMF estimated that the economic growth rate of mainland China in 2019 was 6.2%, compared with 6% in 2020, and 10 pairs of basic points in April.
As for the global economic growth, which continues to be depressed, it is mainly affected by the trade friction between the United States and China. IMF estimated that the global economic growth rate in 2019 was 3.2%, compared with 3.5% in 2020, which was 10 lower than that predicted in April. According to the preliminary GDP figures and the slight inflation rate, the global economic activity is weaker than originally expected.
IMF's economic forecast for India is consistent with other international agencies such as Fitch and World Bank, which are estimated to be in the 6.6~7.5% range. Agencies also believe that India's investment and consumption demand is insufficient. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) believes that the India rupee (Rupee) exchange rate is strong plus GDP is low, and the 2019-20 fiscal year inflation rate will remain at a low 4.1%.
It is worth noting that due to India's political stability, high utilization of capacity and confidence in enterprises in the second quarter of this year, the stock market has been active and the financial mobility of the business sector has increased, which is expected to drive investment activities.
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