Speak With Data! In The Two Quarter, What Is The Confidence Of Chinese Textile Enterprises?

Preface

In order to track the prosperity of textile enterprises in China, understand the confidence of the managers in the development of the industry and the enterprises, timely reflect the outstanding problems faced by the business managers and the views on the hot issues in the industry, provide first-hand information for the government to adjust the industrial policies, conduct the organization to take countermeasures, and adjust the production and operation strategies of the enterprises.

The thirty-seventh phase of the questionnaire was completed in July 2019. The current survey period is 2019 04~06 months. The questionnaires were distributed and recovered mainly through various professional associations of China Textile Industry Federation, relevant media and direct reporting online. The questionnaire is filled out by the corporate representative or the principal person in charge of management.

Through the concerted efforts and concerted efforts of relevant departments, professional associations and supporting media of the China Federation of textile industry, the majority of enterprises have actively participated. Up to the date of the issuance of the report, a total of 184 valid questionnaires have been collected. The index analysis report is formed through data collation, statistics and comprehensive analysis. It will provide reference for relevant government departments, trade associations and business operators to grasp the new trend of industry development and adjust production and operation strategies.

1. Overall prosperity of the textile industry

The overall climate index has declined, and the company's confidence in the three quarter is still strong. According to the current questionnaire survey data, in the two quarter of 2019, the textile industry prosperity index was 52, compared with the first quarter of 2019, the industry prosperity index dropped by 3 points. The textile industry boom index is expected to be 57.5 in the three quarter of 2019, which is higher than the current prosperity index.

　　 From the sub index, the following characteristics are presented.

1, textile production index rose, sales index declined.

In the two quarter of 2019, although the macroeconomic situation at home and abroad was becoming more and more serious, the business climate index declined overall, but the enterprises constantly adjusted the production rhythm and production index was higher than the first quarter. The production index in the two quarter was 59.6, up 3.8 points from the first quarter of 2019.

Affected by the complex international economic situation and weak international market demand, the new order index was 49.5 in the two quarter of 2019, a drop of 9.4 points compared with the first quarter of 2019, of which the foreign orders index was 47.4, down 8.2 points compared with the first quarter of 2019.

From the domestic and international market data performance, the two quarter domestic sales growth continued to decline, exports have not yet reversed the negative growth (US dollar) momentum. In 2019 1~6, the retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats and needle textiles increased by 3% over the same period last year, and the growth rate dropped 0.3 percentage points compared with the first quarter of 2019. The total export volume of textiles and clothing was 124 billion 231 million US dollars, down 2.37% compared with the same period last year. In terms of RMB, the export of textiles and garments was 844 billion 10 million yuan, an increase of 3.51% over the same period last year.

2, product sales price and raw material purchase price both slide.

In the two quarter of 2019, both the product sales price index and the purchase price index of raw materials both declined. This is consistent with the National Bureau of statistics statistics of textile raw material producer purchase price and textile industry, clothing industry, chemical fiber industry producer price growth rate than the first quarter decline. The cost of raw materials and textile products in China's textile industry has dropped synchronously.

It is estimated that the purchasing price index of raw materials in China's textile industry is 55.7, down 11.2 points compared with the first quarter of 2019. Over the same period, the price index of product sales was only 41.8, down 10.3 points compared with the first quarter of 2019. According to the National Bureau of statistics, in 2019 1~6, the producer price of textile industry and clothing industry increased by 1.1% and 1.1% compared with the same period last year. The chemical fiber industry decreased by 1.4% compared with the same period last year. The purchasing price of textile raw material industrial producers increased by 1% compared to the same period last year, and the growth rate was lower than that in the first quarter of 2019.

3, raw materials inventory decline, finished goods inventory rise

In the two quarter of 2019, China's textile material inventory index was 47.5, down 2 points compared with the first quarter of 2019. The finished product inventory index was 59.6, an increase of 15.5 points over the first quarter of 2019. It can be seen that, due to the weak market demand at home and abroad, China's textile production enterprises have slowed down their stockings, the pressure on inventories has increased, and the inventory of production enterprises has increased rapidly.

Overall, the overall prosperity index of China's textile industry has declined due to factors such as market slowdown. With the relevant domestic tax reduction and other policies to play an effective role, the three quarter or there will be room for recovery, enterprises optimistic about the three quarter of operation, confidence has been enhanced. Specifically, the change of the main sub indicators in the two quarter of 2019 over the first quarter of 2019 and the expectation for the three quarter are as follows:

　　 Two. Basic situation of sample enterprises

In this period, 184 effective sample enterprises, from the regional distribution structure, the sample enterprises mainly concentrated in the eastern region, accounting for 88%; from the scale of enterprises, the majority of medium-sized enterprises accounted for 44%; from the perspective of enterprise type, private holding enterprises were the majority, accounting for 62.5%, from the industry category, cotton spinning, home textiles, garment industry accounted for a relatively high proportion of enterprises. The distribution of specific samples is as follows:

　　 Three, production and operation of enterprises

For the two quarter of 2019, the overall situation of production and operation of the enterprises in the 36.6% quarter of the year, 36.6% of the enterprises chose "good", which was 5.1 percentage points lower than that in the first quarter of 2019 when the enterprises chose "good" ratio (41.7%), and clearly indicated that the "poor" business was 12%, which was 4.1 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter of 2019. Visible, the two quarter of the sample business overall business pressure is not small.

From the point of view of regional distribution, the proportion of enterprises in eastern and central regions to choose "good" is higher than that in the western region. From the point of view of the sub sectors, the proportion of industrial, linen, chemical, textile, printing and dyeing enterprises to choose "good" operation is more than 50%, and the management situation is relatively optimistic. From the perspective of enterprise type, the proportion of enterprises choosing "good" is from large to small in medium, large and small enterprises.

　　 1. the current market demand is weak, and the next market is expected to be cautious.

About 36.4% of the enterprises' orders (demand) increased compared with the previous period, while the proportion in the previous survey was 40.8%. About 26.1% of the enterprises' orders (demand) were unchanged from the previous period. Overall, the volume of enterprise orders declined in the two quarter of 2019 compared with the previous period, reflecting the overall market demand in the two quarter.

　　 The number of foreign orders (demand) increased by 24.3% in the current period, compared with 31.9% in the previous survey. Overall, the demand for foreign orders decreased more than that of the previous period.

　　 For the next order demand, 39.3% of the enterprises are expected to increase over the current period. It can be seen that enterprises are cautious in judging the market demand in the three quarter of 2019. Among them, the industry, clothing, home textile enterprises have relatively positive attitude towards the next order judgment, and the proportion of enterprises expecting the next order increase will be more than 50%.

　　 On the next stage of international market demand, 24.2% of enterprises believe that the next order will increase. Obviously, enterprises are very cautious about the international market demand in the three quarter of 2019. From the point of view of sub sectors, all industry enterprises are very cautious about the expectations of the international market in the next quarter. No enterprises expect the growth of foreign orders in the next period will account for more than 50%. Most industries expect the international market to be flat.

　　 2. the production of this phase is accelerated, and the next period is expected to be judged cautiously.

Judging from the production volume of the main products of this period, 43.4% of enterprises chose to increase production over the previous period, and the proportion in the previous survey was 36.9%. It can be seen that the production of textile enterprises in the two quarter of 2019 accelerated compared with the first quarter of 2019.

From the perspective of enterprise size, the proportion of medium-sized enterprises' production increased more than that of large and small enterprises. From the point of view of industries, the proportion of industrial, woolen, linen and knitting enterprises in selecting products increased by 100%.

　　 For the three quarter of 2019, the proportion of enterprises' main products increased by 36%, which was slightly lower than that of the main products in this period (43.4%).

　　 3. the price of products dropped and stock pressure increased.

The average selling price of the main products of 16.5% of the sample enterprises increased compared with that of the previous period, and 33% of the sample enterprises had a decrease in the price of their main products, indicating that 50.5% of them were flat. Overall, the product sales price index declined compared with the first quarter of 2019.

　　 For the next product sales price judgement, it is estimated that the sales price of the next product will be 70.9% of the sample period, and only 18.1% of the enterprises will expect the sales price to rise. It can be seen that entrepreneurs generally believe that the three quarter of product sales prices to raise space is limited.

In terms of finished goods inventory, the survey results show that the proportion of products in the current period is 39.3% higher than that in the previous period, and the proportion of inventory decline is 20.2%, while the proportion of stock raising in the previous period is 22.5%, and the proportion of inventory decline is 34.3%. Overall, the inventory pressure of finished products in the sample enterprises has increased.

From the point of view of the sub sectors, the number of finished products in the industrial and knitting enterprises is slightly larger than that in the finished products, and the inventory of finished product inventory falls by more than 50%.

For the next stage of finished product inventory, the proportion of sample enterprises with reduced inventory is 24.5%. The sample enterprises are relatively cautious about the inventory of the finished products.

　　 4., the current profit reduction, optimistic about the next stage of expectations.

In terms of corporate earnings, 58.5% of the sample enterprises increased or remained flat during the current period, which is much lower than that of the previous sample enterprises. From the scale of different enterprises, medium-sized enterprises have nearly 40% profit growth, and small and medium-sized enterprises have less profit growth, 25.4% and 14.3% respectively.

For the three quarter of 2019, the proportion of enterprises expected to increase profits is 36.3%, which is 6.8 percentage points higher than that of the current period. It shows that the sample companies are optimistic about the three quarter earnings forecast.

　　 5. the utilization rate of capacity is rising, and the utilization ratio of large enterprises is high.

In terms of capacity utilization level, the utilization ratio of equipment capacity of 71.3% of the sample enterprises remained above 80%, a slight increase of 1.6 percentage points over the previous period. The utilization ratio of equipment in large and medium-sized enterprises is higher than that in small enterprises, and the proportion of enterprises whose equipment utilization rate is above 80% is 83.6% and 75% respectively. From the point of view of industries, more than 80% of the equipment used in cotton spinning, wool spinning, linen spinning, industrial and knitting industries accounted for more than 80%.

　　 6. the stock of raw materials is up this period, which is a little cautious for the next period.

In terms of raw material purchase volume, 32.2% of sample enterprises increased their purchasing volume, up 7.9 percentage points compared with the previous period. On the whole, the enthusiasm of raw materials in this phase is improved.

For the next estimate of raw material purchase, 29.1% sample enterprises choose "increase", which is lower than that of the sample enterprises. Therefore, the sample enterprises are cautious about the preparation of raw materials.

　　 Four, enterprise management decision making situation

Insufficient market demand is the first concern of enterprises.

For the main problems encountered in the production and operation of enterprises at this stage, "insufficient market demand" has become the most concerned issue of enterprises, especially the lack of domestic market demand has become the focus of enterprises. The problem of excessive cost rise is still a concern for business operators. However, the proportion of the first choice has dropped to 18% (the previous period is 31.5%). With the further development of supply side structural reform, enterprises' attention to the domestic market has been increasing. According to this issue, the proportion of enterprises with "insufficient domestic market demand" is the first problem, accounting for 26.8%, which is 7.4 percentage points higher than that of the previous period (19.4%). It is considered that the proportion of enterprises with insufficient international market demand is 24.6%, which is 9.3 percentage points lower than that of the previous period (15.3%).

　　 Five, macroeconomic conditions

Judging by the current industry situation, the attitude of the managers is lower than that of the previous period. 18% of the sample enterprises believe that the overall operation of the textile industry is optimistic (up to 29.5%), and 55.2% of the enterprises believe that the operation is in general (up to 55.3%), and the proportion of not optimistic judgement is 11.6 percentage higher than that of the previous period.

Judging from sub sectors, the proportion of enterprises with optimistic judgement in wool spinning, industrial and linen textile industry is relatively high.

　　 For the expectation of the overall operation of the next textile industry, the proportion of enterprises who choose optimism is 24.7%, which is higher than the actual proportion of enterprises chosen optimistically. It shows that enterprises are cautiously optimistic about the overall operation of the next macro-economy.

　　 For the judgment of the next domestic and foreign markets, the sample enterprises are more cautious in judging the expected increase of the two markets. The expected market demand for textile and apparel market in the next period is only 20.3% higher than that in the current period. It is expected that the demand for foreign textile and garment market in the next period will only account for 21% of the increase in sample size.

　　 Six, business operators' views on hot issues

1. industry's future investment trend

In the survey of the future investment trend of the industry in the sample enterprises, 9.4% of the enterprises indicated that the future investment increased by 0.3 percentage points compared with the previous survey data. 42.2% of the enterprises indicated that the industry investment in the future will decline, which is 18.2 percentage points higher than the previous period. From a sub regional perspective, the eastern region believes that the proportion of investment will increase slightly, while western enterprises believe that the proportion of future investment will decline. Judging from the distribution of the industry, home textile enterprises believe that the proportion of future investment increase is slightly higher, which is 16.7%.

　　 2. enterprise asset liability ratio level

In the survey of the assets and liabilities ratio of the sample enterprises in the current stage, the total proportion of assets and liabilities ratio below 50% accounted for 51.1%, up 1.6 percentage points over the previous period (49.5%), and the assets and liabilities ratio of more than 60% accounted for 22.2% of the sample enterprises, 3.7 percentage points higher than that of the previous period (18.5%). The overall debt ratio of enterprises has increased. According to the type of enterprises, 26.5% of small businesses have a debt to equity ratio of more than 60%. 43.5% of state holding enterprises have less than 50% asset liability ratio. According to different industries, the ratio of assets and liabilities of silk industry is relatively high, and the proportion of assets and liabilities ratio exceeds 60% is 66.7%.

　　 3. enterprise tax burden

According to the proportion of tax burden increase or decrease, nearly 40% enterprises have reduced the tax burden, and only 9% of enterprises feel the burden of tax increases. Judging from the type of enterprises, more large textile enterprises feel that reducing taxes and lowering fees will bring benefits to enterprises. According to the industry, more than 60% of the cotton spinning, dyeing, silk and knitting industries feel that the tax burden has been lightened.