Terminal Demand Is Weak, Cost Side Support Is Insufficient, Polyester Market Wants To Turn Over Is Not Easy.

On the 7 day, the production and sale of polyester filament surged to 220%-230% and reached 500% and 800%. As a result, the stock of polyester filament has decreased, and as of 7 days, the total stock of polyester filament has dropped to 13-22 days. For the specific products, POY stock has been stored for 6-10 days, FDY stock has been stored for 13-19 days, while DTY stock has been around for 21-26 days.

Why does polyester filament produce and sell suddenly?

1. weaving factories drive the buying of raw materials.

2. the promotion of raw materials for chemical fiber enterprises increased.

3., the weaving plant's start-up rate has increased: the high temperature days are gradually receding, and the manufacturers who stop production before starting to resume production need to purchase raw materials.

The 4. part of autumn and winter products are loose.

Then the weaving rate and polyester filament production and sales have picked up. Does this mean that the downstream demand is showing signs of warming, and polyester market will rise?

The answer is: NO!

Through research, although some orders in autumn and winter are slightly moving, the overall order of weaving Market is still not objective. Textile boss reflects: "the market is really lighter than boiled water. We have no list now." In the past month, there were lots of proofing, at least 200 samples, but there was not a single list, and I didn't know what was going on. Many samples, though proving that the market is still in circulation, and at the same time, the proofing cost is low. Traders and clothing dealers can better understand the market trend through proofing. But this kind of situation that only sees the sample does not see the order, the purchase of the terminal clothing market is still hesitating.

At the same time, China's silk net monitoring sample enterprises, the Shengze area billet warehouse has about 42 days, has been refreshed 2 years high, and in the current market, consumption of such a high inventory still needs a certain cycle.

Looking at the recent fashion market situation, it is also a "landscape": New Look and Forever 21 have been closed down one after another, and have completely withdrawn from the Chinese market; Dressbarn has applied for bankruptcy, closing 35 stores before the end of August; La Natsu Bell lost 100 million yuan in the first half of the year, and over 2400 stores under the crazy closing line.

In addition, Trump claims that it will impose tariffs on US $300 billion from September 1st, and the first time China has broken the "7" in 11 years. It also has more bad news recently. It also brings obstacles to the textile market.

In addition to the weakness of terminal demand, the cost end of polyester is also insufficient.

One

PTA stumbled, late rebound space limited

Since July, PTA has been "no stop", the 5 day limit, and continued to decline. After the fundamentals plus the macro face plus the multiple negative margins of the news surface, the PTA price has dropped to a low level for two years, and the price of the futures market is also hovering near the 5000 point. PTA profit is currently 318 yuan / ton, compared with 1759 yuan / ton in July 2nd, a sharp decrease of 1441 yuan / ton.

In addition, PTA's raw material PX will be put into operation in the second half of this year. In the new capacity of China, the PX products of Sinochem Hong run new plant will be listed in August. In September, the 1 million ton / year PX plant of Hainan refining and chemical plant will be put into operation, and the 1 million 500 thousand tons / year PX installation of Hengyi Brunei will be put into operation. In October, the 4 million ton / year PX plant of Zhejiang petrochemical plant will be put into operation, and the new capacity of PX will be huge in the second half of the year.

(figure is 2019 PX new capacity launch plan)

Under the pressure of PX concentration release, PTA will break down and the cost side will collapse.

Two

Ethylene glycol is clear, but profits are still on the edge of losses.

Since the listing of ethylene glycol futures, it has been "no ordinary way", it is difficult to share the same breath with PTA. In the near term, the effect of ethylene glycol deactivation is obvious. According to statistics, the inventory of ethylene glycol in East China's main port has dropped to around 1 million 33 thousand tons, and the price of internal and external plates has also risen slightly, but its profit has been hovering at 0.

It is reported that at present, there are about more than 60 ethylene glycol projects built and planned in China, with a total capacity of nearly 30 million tons, of which about 6 million tons will be added before and after 2020. When the demand side changes little, domestic installations will be put into production, and the import volume will continue to increase. The supply side will increase obviously, which will certainly suppress the price of ethylene glycol.

Generally speaking, at present, from the downstream demand market, the market warming at this stage can not represent the general trend of the market. At the same time, the price of PTA and ethylene glycol is still at a low risk, and the cost support of polyester filament is no longer supported. Therefore, it is not easy to turn over the polyester filament market. In the near future, we need to pay attention to the purchasing power of the terminal garment market, the consumption of weaving enterprises' inventories and the progress of Sino US trade.