Crude Oil Soared, Polyester Staple Fiber Will Rise In Short Or Short Term

According to the price data of business associations, by August 14th, the average price of 1.4D*38MM polyester staple fibers in the domestic area was 7310 yuan / ton, a decrease of 15.64% yuan, or 1355 yuan / ton, down 28.07%, or 2852 yuan / ton. Compared with the hot summer phenomenon last year, the polyester staple market was slightly cold today, and the price of the factory was maintained at 7100-7350 yuan / ton.

On the evening of August 13th, China and the United States exchanged calls on Sino US trade issues. The US side decided to postpone the Levy of tariffs on some products, and negotiated tariffs on China's exports to the US in September 1st. This has continued to heat up global market movements, especially when oil prices are in the turn of the Sino US trade, and has led to a series of downstream products. WTI crude oil futures rose 2.17 U.S. dollars in September, or 3.95%, at 57.10 U.S. dollars / barrel; Brent crude oil futures rose 2.73 US dollars in October, or 4.7%, at 61.30 US dollars / barrel; the crude oil futures contract SC1909 night plate received 434.4 yuan / barrel, up 3.48%.

It is reported that Saudi Arabia is discussing oil prices with other oil producing countries, and OPEC will further reduce production; API data show that unexpected increases in US crude oil and gasoline stocks have led to a rise in restrictions. As for oil prices, we can draw a conclusion from the previous price trend that the game between China and the United States is the biggest factor, so the recovery of the price of the machine in last night's negotiations is not surprising, but it is difficult to keep the oil price going higher. The temporary price increase is greatly influenced by the emotional factors and is not enough to make up for the US's tariffs on China.

In August 13th, PTA futures rose 1909 at night, or 180, closing at 5412. It is still a sign of relaxation in the Sino US trade negotiations. It was dominated by sentiment. PTA and MEG rose to varying degrees during the night. In recent years, Yangzi Petrochemical's annual capacity of 650 thousand tons was discontinued for 7-10 days in August 12th. At present, the operating rate of PTA is 91.16%, and the operating rate of polyester has not changed by about 86%. However, we can see from the list of the fourth batch of tariffs added by the United States to China that most of the products that were added to the tariffs until mid December were mostly electronic products, toys, game machines and some shoes and hats, while knitted clothing still had 80% and 65% of textile products were taxed after half a month. Pta, as its upstream product, is less likely to continue to rise.

Downstream 32S polyester yarn cut-off yesterday, Shandong factory average price of 15750 yuan / ton, rose 1.22%, or 190 yuan / ton, down 3%, or 487 yuan / ton. The price of the middle end factory is 14000-14500 yuan / ton, and the high-end plant price is 16000-16300 yuan / ton. According to the survey, the production and operation of downstream yarn grey fabric enterprises is basically normal, not as pessimistic as expected, and the rate of start-up is unexpectedly high. Most enterprises start up at 70-80%. According to the current procurement market, enterprises can earn limited profits, because of the high storage in the early stage, some enterprises even lose money or even lose money. The cotton yarn inventory of textile enterprises increased, and maintained for 20 days. The orders for exporting to the US market were reduced, and the market performance of other countries was normal.

To sum up, business analysts believe that the price of upstream crude oil and PTA will still be affected by Sino US trade. However, because of previous regrets, the improvement of Sino US trade relations may only be temporary. It will not have a great impact on the whole process. It may even last for a long period of time. The outbreak of geopolitical problems will become more frequent. This price increase is affected by emotions and the future trend is unknown. If the downstream yarn stock can not be lowered, enterprises will not be able to make profits for a long time. In summary, the short-term price of PET staple has been rising for a long time.