Overall Maintenance Of The Interval Low Oscillation, Short-Term PTA Price Center Steadily Rise.

Recently, PTA period price first suppressed after Yang, overall maintenance interval low oscillation, price center steadily rise. 。 As of August 9th closing, PTA1909 price closed at 5200 yuan / ton, weekly gain of 42 yuan / ton or 0.81%. PTA spot price is 5170 yuan / ton, weekly decline is 125 yuan / ton or 2.36%. The PTA base difference is 43 yuan / ton.

Macro fermentation

Oil prices remain oscillatory

Worries about the international trade situation have affected the prospect of crude oil demand and the spread of risk aversion. 。 EIA (US Energy Information Administration) will reduce the growth rate of global crude oil demand in 2019 by 70 thousand barrels to 1 million barrels per day. It is estimated that US crude oil production will increase by 1 million 280 thousand barrels per day in 2019, compared with the expected increase of 1 million 400 thousand barrels per day. IEA will reduce the growth rate of crude oil demand in 2019 by 100 thousand barrels to 1 million 100 thousand barrels per day. OECD (economic cooperation and Development Organization) crude oil inventories increased by 31 million 800 thousand barrels to 2 billion 961 million barrels in June, representing an average of more than 66 million 900 thousand barrels compared with 5. Saudi Arabia said it would further reduce crude oil production to maintain oil market balance. It is understood that Saudi Arabia plans to export crude oil output in August at less than 7 million barrels / day, the output is below 10 million barrels / day, and its crude oil output in September will be 700 thousand barrels / day lower than that in August.

IEA data show that in July, Iran crude oil exports fell 130 thousand barrels to 400 thousand barrels / day; Russia overfulfilled the target of 16% reduction in production; OPEC overfulfilled the crude oil production reduction task 34%. As of August 2nd, crude oil inventories in the US dropped by 3 million 430 thousand barrels, and expected to be reduced by 3 million 313 thousand barrels for eighth consecutive weeks. Gasoline inventories were reduced by 1 million 100 thousand barrels, and refined oil inventories increased by 1 million 200 thousand barrels. After the macro profits were realized, oil prices showed a recovery rebound, and oil prices were expected to maintain an interval oscillation in the near future.

PX new plant put into operation

Prices continue to bear pressure

On the international side, the 2#90 PX device of S-Oil 2#90 of South Korea has been servicing for 5 months. It has been restarted and the load has been raised. 。 The 700 thousand tonne Total Saudi Arabian plant was overhauled in July 8th and is expected to last until the end of August. South Korea's SK Inchon 1 million 300 thousand tons plant is scheduled to be overhauled for 45 days in September. Vietnam's Yishan refinery 700 thousand ton plant maintenance plan advanced to October, is expected to stop for 45 days. Saudi Amy 1 million 340 thousand tonne plant plans to stop for fourth days in the fourth quarter. Domestically, the Liaoyang Petrochemical 450 thousand ton PX plant was restarted in August 7th and expanded to 750 thousand tons. 。 China's Taiwan 2#57.3 platform is scheduled to be shut down for 2~3 weeks in mid August. In terms of new installations, Sinopec Hongrun Petrochemical 800 thousand ton PX plant officially produced qualified products in August, and its load is now around 9. Hainan refinery 2#100 million tons / year's new PX plant is scheduled to go into operation in September. Hengyi Brunei 1 million 500 thousand ton PX plant has entered the linkage test phase recently. On August 5th ~9, the PX load in China increased by 2.6 percentage points to 84.6% over the previous week. PX price is $792 / ton, equivalent to PTA cost of 4916 yuan / ton. PX and naphtha spreads widened to $341 / ton.

Downstream load lifting

Demand has improved.

In terms of PTA installations, Fujian Jialong 600 thousand ton plant is planned to restart in mid August, and 650 thousand tons of Yangzi Petrochemical plant will be restarted in mid 8. 。 Yisheng Ningbo 650 thousand tons plant, Wanli polyester 700 thousand ton plant shutdown maintenance, restart to be determined. Yizheng chemical fiber 350 thousand ton plant has been servicing for 45 days since August 1st. Hua Bin's 1 million 400 thousand ton plant will stop for 10~15 days from August 7th. Hengli Petrochemical 2 million 200 thousand ton plant was overhauled for 15 days in August. The 1 million 500 thousand ton plant in Taiwan, China, is scheduled to stop for 17~20 days from September 13th.

On August 5th ~9, the load of domestic PTA plants increased by 7.2 percentage points to 92.6%. PTA market supply increased, spot prices continued to fall, and the 09 base deviation was negative. Meanwhile, on the terminal side, the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms increased by 9.5 percentage points to 71.5% over the previous week. Polyester market for low price promotion, inventory will be digested. With the gradual repair of the cash flow of polyester enterprises, the polyester device of the pre maintenance is gradually restarted, and the load of the polyester plant is increased by 1.6 percentage points to 85.5%.

At present, polyester factory load continues to rise, demand side signs of improvement. On the disk, the PTA price stabilized at the top of the 5000 yuan / ton pass, and the reference interval was 5000 yuan / ton ~5400 yuan / ton.