Is Polyester Filament Market Worth Looking Forward To?

 

With the approaching of the traditional peak season, the downstream demand will also gradually recover. Is the next polyester filament market worth looking forward to?

 

Reasons for weak demand

 

The market price of polyester filament is much lower than that of the same period last year. The main reason is the weak demand in the lower reaches.

 

On the one hand, Sino US trade frictions have led to the fact that foreign trade orders are not ideal, and textile factories have to face more intense international competition.

 

On the other hand, since 2016, under the influence of environmental protection policy, many textile enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces have moved to Anhui and Northern Jiangsu to expand their production and reconstruction. In the second half of this year, the relocation of production capacity has been gradually released, making the total domestic textile production capacity expand rapidly. The pressure of supply is increasing rapidly, and the inventory of textile factories is continuously high, and the profits of the textile industry are decreasing rapidly.

 

At the same time, in 2019, the global economic downturn and the downward pressure on domestic economy were still under way. Under the pressure of domestic commodities, the PTA market of raw materials also maintained more concussion. The cost end had a weakening effect on the polyester filament market.

 

It is precisely because the industry environment is empty, experienced two or two backward polyester filament market prices, but also easily refresh the new low in two years, the polyester filament Market in 2019 is not optimistic. At the beginning of August, the market price of polyester filament approached the new low point in the year. At the same time, the polyester filament Market on the 7 day also ushered in the first volume of market production and sales this month, and then again in August 14th. Can the vitality of polyester filament Market in August gradually improve, can the market price be repaired slowly, which will make a good start for the traditional peak season in September? Or, the next polyester filament market will continue the "peak season is not prosperous, off-season is more light" market?

 

How to interpret the market?

 

Short term look

 

Polyester filament market rebound space is limited. In the near future, the PTA market of raw materials has been running narrowly and narrowly. The cost support has been steady, and the processing error of PTA has been lower than before. At present, the market price of raw material PTA continues to fluctuate, and the decline is relatively limited even at the current level of 800-900 yuan / ton. According to statistics, the current polyester filament industry's profit is 400-700 yuan / ton, which belongs to the high level this year. This week, after the production and sale of polyester filament market continues to spread, the downstream centralized purchase period or after the end of August, the production and sale of polyester filament market will restore light market conditions. Therefore, the stock of polyester filament factory will still increase. In the trend of continuous accumulation of polyester filament industry, post market polyester filament factory or continue to allow the shipment, the market rebound strength is limited.

 

Medium and long term view

 

Whether the downstream demand can grow on schedule will become the key to whether the polyester filament market can continue to rise. At present, the finished product inventory of downstream weaving factories has been accumulated to 43 days, close to the same period in 2016. According to statistics, since May, the inventory of weaving factories has been maintained at a high level for more than 40 days. This year, whether in the off-season or in the peak season, there is no obvious downward trend in the inventory of weaving factories. In addition, the funds of the weaving factories are not abundant enough, and the confidence in the market is not enough. Therefore, the recent enthusiasm of the weaving factories to receive new orders is not high. However, the trade frictions between China and the United States have eased, and the depreciation of the RMB has been favorable for the export market. Coupled with the high temperature weather, the rate of start up of the bomb and weaving factories continued to rise slightly, and the varieties of fabrics in autumn and winter have increased, and the downstream domestic demand is also recovering in an orderly way.

 

Overall view

 

Although Sino US trade friction is still a sharp sword hanging on the top of the downstream market, the downstream demand is slowly improving, and there are signs of stabilizing and rebound in the upstream raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol market.