Polyester Filament Production And Marketing For 2 Consecutive Days Over 100% Kim Gu Peak Season Just A Drop In The Door?

Near the end of the month, the downstream weaving and filling plant again increased the volume of filling, and the production and sale rate of polyester filament continued to exceed 100% for two consecutive days. At present, the "Kim Gu" peak season is just a drop in the balance. Will this demand rebound help the bottom of polyester filament rebound?

The inventory of grey fabric decreased and the nodes at the end of the month led to the phased operation of polyester purchasing.

Judging from the current downstream weaving Market, market orders have increased significantly. Although there is a certain differentiation between different products, overall, downstream orders, proofing and enquiry enthusiasm are better than before. Among them, the most outstanding performance is the amplification of elastic fabric. In addition to the sudden emergence of new T800 in the market, the fabrics such as four rounds, T400 and other fabrics are also in strong demand. In any case, with the gradual improvement of market orders, weaving manufacturers' inventories also declined. According to data monitoring, up to now, Shengze grey fabric weaving inventory has dropped to about 40 days.

In addition, according to a certain proportion, the fabric inventory of weaving factories is high, and the raw materials are more cautious. On the contrary, the fabric inventory of weaving factories is reduced, and there is a certain increase in stocking of raw materials accordingly. In recent days, as the market has been improving, the inventory of the fabric market has declined. Some of the weaving factories naturally have the initiative to purchase raw materials. Plus, near the end of the month, it is in line with the raw material procurement time node. In the short term, the polyester market will usher in a wave of phased procurement operation.

However, Xiaobian believes that replenishment at the end of the month lacks support for raw materials and orders, and there is persistent doubt. Recently, the textile market has entered a more delicate interval. The establishment of the bottom stage of the future market needs to be woven together, resulting in the continuous enlargement of the volume, the continuous promotion of hot spots, and the continuous introduction of the substantive good policies, and so on. These three factors play a common role. Therefore, at present, there is no foundation for systemic rebound, or style conversion is too early.

Frequent delays in overhaul plan, even PTA big factories are not very price!

Near the golden nine silver ten traditional peak season's critical time node, the market generally believed that the textile market will get better, did not think that the PTA futures main contract once reached a minimum of 5014 points, hit a new low, compared with the beginning of the year fell by over 15%. PTA futures main contract frequently "hit the face" of the bulldog, base on the bottom of the shock operation, and the control of quotes "life and death" PTA big factory seems to have no way to take the opportunity to pull up.

Due to the centralized maintenance of Hua Bin Petrochemical 700 thousand tons, Yangzi Petrochemical 650 thousand tons, Yisheng Ningbo 650 thousand tons, Liwan polyester 700 thousand tons installed in the near future has been restarted, resulting in short-term operating rate upward. As of August 27th, the PTA plant operating rate reached 86.5%, triggering market worries about supply.

Moreover, the overhaul plan of the PTA large-scale plant failed to carry out the maintenance as expected. In view of the fact that the short period of small installations increased, the 350 thousand tons of Yizheng Petrochemical Company and the 600 thousand tons of Jialong Petrochemical Company will be restarted in early September to mid September. And this year's three quarter to fourth quarter of the new launch of the new installation of new Feng Ming 2 million 200 thousand tons / year and Hengli Petrochemical 4 phase 2 million 500 thousand tons / year PTA put into operation a lot of news, or will directly offset the previous major factory overhaul plan.

The spot price of PTA has stabilized recently. As of 28 days, the spot price of the East China market is 5150 yuan / ton, the net profit of the industry is only 249 yuan / ton, and the net profit of PTA single ton has been at 250 yuan / ton level in the past 1 months.

From the perspective of processing fees, the current PTA processing fee is relatively large for the factory, so the willingness of the big factory to stop and repair is low. It also confirms that Dachang delays the overhaul plan frequently, resulting in no good news before golden nine silver ten.

Trade frictions also fired a "shot", polyester industry chain "no action".

Influenced by the Sino US economic and trade frictions, the end textile enterprises are cautious in production this year. Polyester, due to poor production and marketing, coupled with the impact of dyeing and printing inspection by annulus, polyester enterprises' enthusiasm for production fell, and began to adopt continuous inventory strategy. Under such circumstances, as the price of PTA in the previous stage continues to fall and the market is not buying enough, enterprises will buy and use, which will continuously reduce the demand for PTA.

In recent days, the Sino US trade war has continued to rekindle, which has a deep impact on the trend of the polyester industry chain in the near future. On the 28 day, Trump's argument about China's return to the negotiating table was rebutted by the Chinese Ministry of foreign affairs, and there was no sign of progress in the Sino US trade consultation. China has embarked on preparations for the worst of the trade negotiations, including the inclusion of US companies in the list of unreliable entities and measures to stimulate economic growth. The pessimism that is difficult to solve quickly in the US and China trade tensions once again plagued the market.

For downstream end weaving, the impact of Sino US trade friction is undoubtedly the biggest "black swan", and textile enterprise orders have been affected to varying degrees. Now, during the peak season, the original textile market is taking advantage of the recent partial improvement in the domestic market. It may be able to move smoothly to the peak season, but this rhythm seems to have been disrupted again. At present, there is a tense atmosphere in the textile market.

"Our customers in the United States are quite numerous, but this year the orders have been significantly reduced. Orders for the US side have resumed since July, but no orders have been made this week. I wonder if it is because Trump is going to toss around again and wait." Chen Chang of Shaoxing said. In the course of the survey, an American customer accounted for 9 of the textile foreign businessmen, said: "Trump is too unreliable. He always goes back on his word, and now he raises 10% to 15%.

Now there is no response from customers, afraid to order, we dare not take orders, I heard that some customers have transferred to Southeast Asia to get goods...... " With the increase of uncertainties in the foreign trade market, the lack of enterprise orders has greatly hindered the demand for polyester. Now the trade frictions have been fired again. The "Kim Gu", which was originally "trembling with fear", is covered with a layer of gray. The whole polyester industry chain is "justified by force".

To sum up: Although the current market negative factors lead to the wait-and-see mentality of polyester filament, the purchasing atmosphere is generally cautious, but under the expectation of Jin nine silver ten, polyester polyester production and sales performance is acceptable, and the current polyester factory product inventory is at a low level of around 10 days. Polyester factory cash flow is also improving, polyester profit of 500 yuan / ton. Polyester filament will still maintain a benign production process. Next, polyester spinning manufacturers are still mainly selling shipments, and the price of polyester filament will be adjusted steadily up this week. (source: futures daily, cloth factory)