Trade Deadlock And Devaluation Of RMB, The Staple Of Staple Polyester Staple Is Difficult To Break.

In the past month, the price of direct spun polyester staple fiber has fluctuated within 200 yuan / ton. And for some time to see, the trade deadlock and the depreciation of the renminbi and the policy of falling soon will restrict the market. The contradiction between the downstream demand and the shortage of short staple enterprises and the loss of cash flow will also fill the market. The short term polyester staple market is still hard to break through the stalemate.

In the first week of September, with the arrival of replenishment nodes and the implementation of overhaul news by PTA, the middlemen and downstream businesses replenish their products. Especially on Thursday, oil and raw materials increased and the production and sales of polyester staple fibers improved significantly. The sales rate of some enterprises was as high as 500%-800%. However, only one day, the short fiber market returned to a calm trend due to the lack of other positive incentives, and the atmosphere of production and marketing also returned to a weak trend due to slight overdraft of the market. However, in the later stage, the market may still present a stalemate trend because of the existence of multiple uncertain messages, and the price fluctuation will not be too large. Next, I will briefly analyze several factors that affect the current market volatility.

Tight supply -- more

At present, polyester staple fiber industry inventory is at a low level. Generally speaking, when the inventory is less than a week, the supply is tight, the 7-15 day is relatively controllable, and the supply pressure is more than 15 days. At present, the average stock of polyester staple industry is only about 0-5 days, and some enterprises even owe the goods. So the industry pool is generally low, and it also plays a certain role in supporting the latter price.

Cash flow is low.

The cash flow of recent direct spinning polyester staple fiber enterprises is relatively low, and the average cash flow in the first week of September is only 33.33 yuan / ton. If we consider the raw material monthly closing and the calculation of financial cost and depreciation, almost all enterprises are in a state of loss. If there is no significant drop in the cost side, short fiber prices will have strong support.

From the raw material point of view, PTA has a high operating rate at present, and the processing fee is also near the high level of 1000 yuan / ton. However, there is a maintenance plan for a 2 million 200 thousand ton / year device in the middle of the year, and the rate of polyester operation remains at a relatively high level. There is little room for the subsequent price drop. Ethylene glycol also maintains a warmer level under its own inventory background, and the cost side has a certain overall support.

External news and policy aspects -- interlacing

The worries about trade relations still exist. Although the United States and China agreed to hold the thirteenth round of consultations in Washington at the beginning of October, there are many uncertainties, and many of them have prepared for a protracted war. From the domestic point of view, in the counter cyclical policy adjustment, announced on Friday evening, the people's Bank of China decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points in September 16, 2019. The regulation of monetary policy will also benefit the market to a certain extent. Since August, the depreciation of exchange rate has also increased the import cost of polyester raw materials to a certain extent, and to a certain extent, favorable for the export of terminal textiles and garments. Therefore, overall, the information is often intertwined, and the actual impact on the market is limited.

Demand side - empty

At present, more than 70% of the consumption of polyester staple fiber is applied to spinning enterprises and sewing thread enterprises. Although they are in the traditional peak season, the characteristics of the market are not obvious. At present, the inventory of the grey fabric factory is high, and the spinning enterprises' orders are not good. After this week's centralized stocking, the raw material stock of the mill is mostly on the 10-20 day level. The recent period of continuous replenishment rhythm shows that in the next 10 days, if there is no significant positive boost, the enthusiasm for raw material procurement will not be good.

Based on the above factors, despite the recent market stalemate, the polyester staple market is difficult to improve under terminal constraints. However, in the context of no significant drop in raw materials, the market price is basically "drop or drop". Therefore, the author believes that before the end of September, there will be no significant downside risk in PET staple market.

Late focus:

1, 9 mid month late PTA factory overhaul implementation

2, national day, mid autumn holidays, spinning mills start up

3, the impact of lowering the standard on the commodity market.

4, the progress of Sino US negotiations in early October

5, PX and PTA new plant commissioning process