Trump Changed His Face Again? When Will The Old Trick Cease? Should Traders Talk About "Special" Or Not?

The Sino US trade negotiations have gone through a twists and turns, especially Trump's "face changing technique", so that investors are at a loss.

Earnestly discuss and maintain communication, and actively promote the thirteenth round of Sino US economic and trade consultations.

According to the information released by the Information Office of the Ministry of Commerce, in from September 19th to 20th, the Sino US economic and trade team held a consultations at the ministerial level in Washington and held a constructive discussion on the economic and trade issues of common concern. The two sides also discussed the concrete arrangements for the thirteenth round of Sino US high-level consultation on economic and trade held in Washington in October. The two sides agreed to continue to communicate on relevant issues.

It is understood that, at the invitation of the United States, Liao Min, deputy director of the office of the central finance and Economic Commission and vice minister of finance, visited the United States on Wednesday, and held consultations with the US side on Sino US economic and trade issues, preparing for the thirteenth round of Sino US economic and trade consultations held in Washington in October.

According to the Reuters news September 20th, the US trade representative office issued a short statement, saying that the from September 19th to 20th talks were "fruitful" and said that according to the original plan, the US China Economic and trade high-level consultations will be held in Washington in October. The report said that the talks at the beginning of October will include the two sides' chief trade negotiators: Vice Premier Liu He of the Chinese State Council, U.S. trade representative lettsie, and finance minister Mnuchin.

Did the negotiations become stable and Trump changed his face?

On the basis of the news from last weekend's market, the information on the ministerial level consultations held by Washington and China's economic and trade teams held in Washington in from September 19th to 20th is complicated and complicated. The most important news is two points: first, President Trump said he hoped to reach a "complete agreement" with China, not just to let China buy more agreements on US agricultural products; the Chinese trade delegation cancelled the visit to the US farm and shortened the visit to the US.

According to foreign media reports, local time on Friday (20), the Trump administration announced that it should apply to the United States, China's 437 products exemption from tariffs. But then, at a joint news conference with Australian Prime Minister Morrison, Trump again said that he was unwilling to sign an incomplete agreement with Beijing.

It was reported that on September 20th, Trump told a joint news conference with Australian Prime Minister J Morrison (Scott Morrison) that his government has made great progress in its trade negotiations with China. Later, he also said he hoped to conclude a complete trade agreement with China, while China's purchase of US agricultural products is far from enough. He added that a comprehensive agreement would take time, but there was no need to reach agreement before the 2020 presidential election. "We are looking for a complete agreement."

Trump said, "if you notice, China has started buying our agricultural products in the past week. In fact, it has been a very large-scale purchase, but this is not what I want. What I want is a big deal. " In addition, Trump's advisers are urging the agreement to be signed and threatening to raise taxes 50% to 100%. In September 19th, Michael Pillsbury, Trump's China policy adviser, said that if the US China trade agreement could not be reached in the short term, Trump would be ready to upgrade the US China trade dispute, or the tariff would be raised by 50%-100%. Bai Bangrui also warned that if the trade agreement could not be reached as soon as possible, the United States would increase its pressure on China.

According to another source, in September 19th, Padu, the US Agriculture Secretary, said that next week the Chinese delegation would visit the US agricultural area with US officials and strive to establish friendly relations for the ongoing economic and trade negotiations. However, after Trump made such remarks, in September 20th, the Chinese trade delegation cancelled its visit to the US farm next week to shorten its visit to the United States.

In view of President Trump's special skills of Sichuan Opera's "changing face" performing arts, the market parties are very concerned about it. First, there is hope that China will make big purchases of US agricultural products, and hopes for a trade agreement between China and the US will become increasingly dim. Two, the US agricultural organization said that Chinese officials were scheduled to visit the US farm next week to show their friendship, but they cancelled their itinerary and returned to China in advance.

The cancellation of the visit in China weakened the optimism of the Sino US trade negotiations. Three, as a result of this, the major stock indexes of the US stock market have fallen into the flat market. Recently, Wall Street is often based on Trump's remarks or Twitter's anticipation of rise and fall. Many investors are becoming accustomed to such a cycle. Four, there are reports that business leaders hope to see progress in the US China talks in the next few weeks. Such progress may prompt Trump to further postpone or cancel the proposed plan to impose high tariffs on Chinese goods.

The goodwill signal effect remains: the situation is eased and confidence is still in existence.

At present, the communication channels between China and the United States are relatively smooth. Although President Trump is good at changing his face at crucial times, both sides are moving towards a good direction.

According to the first financial report, recently, some overseas media speculated about the cancellation of the Chinese delegation's visit to the US agricultural state visit plan. Han Jun, deputy director of the central agricultural office and vice minister of agriculture and rural affairs, responded in Washington on the 21 day that we did discuss the arrangements with the US side, but did not set the agenda. Later, considering various factors, we did not arrange for us to visit the US agricultural state. Han Jun pointed out that the plan adjustment is independent of the economic and trade consultations and is a separate visit plan. The US side said it would invite further arrangements for the visit. Han Jun said that China is willing to further expand the scale of Sino US agricultural trade and deepen bilateral agricultural cooperation on the basis of equality and mutual respect.

It is reported that Han Jun made the above remarks in Washington on the evening when he attended an exchange of activities with more than 50 representatives from US farmers, agricultural associations, agricultural enterprises and research institutes. He stressed that China and the United States are both large agricultural countries, and have broad prospects for trade cooperation. The establishment of mutually beneficial and win-win Sino US agricultural trade relations is in line with the fundamental interests of the two peoples.

Han Jun pointed out that the consultative ministerial consultations on Sino US economic and trade issues just concluded in Washington were constructive and made preparations for the thirteenth round of high-level consultations between the two sides. Han Jun pointed out that "the negotiation in the agricultural field is also very good, and the two sides have conducted a full and frank communication."

Recently, China and the United States released goodwill signals to each other, and the tension eased somewhat. The specific circumstances are as follows:

First, China announced a tariff exclusion list for the United States, and began importing large quantities of agricultural products such as American soybeans and pork, and it did not raise taxes. Only recently, up to 720 thousand tons of American soybeans were purchased.

Two, the United States postponed the date of tax increase to China, while the United States opened 437 ministerial level consultations at the time of the Sino US trade and economic cooperation. The official website of the US trade representative's Office (USTR) has announced three tariff exemption products for 437 tax products which have 3 lists of China's US $250 billion. For the first round of US $seventh excluding Chinese products, 310 products were excluded, 211 US tax regulations were 10 tax numbers, and the first second 16 billion batch of Chinese products were excluded from the second batches, involving 89 commodities, 53 US tax rates 10 position tax numbers, and the list of excluded products for the second rounds of the US $34 billion China commodity. Since December 2018, USTR has published 11 batches of commodity exclusion lists.

At present, there are still many focus issues in the global capital market, such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, the Fed's internal differences, the Federal Reserve's announcement of the re expansion of the table in October, the global macroeconomic pressure and the tension between the US and Iraq.