Weak Stability Quotations, Cold Market, Bearish Market, Profit Or Loss?

Market brief

Zheng cotton opened up a concussion, bulls and small positions, watching the market with a strong atmosphere and paying close attention to the Sino US trade negotiations held on the 10-11 day. Spot cotton prices continue to be weak and stable, new cotton will be concentrated on the market, cotton supply pressure continues to increase, the terminal consumption is still low, the industry is still not optimistic about future market demand, seed cotton prices are difficult to rise sharply, the downstream cotton demand is not strong, the cotton mill purchase is cautious, the price of cotton seed in the mainland is decreasing, the cotton mill in the mainland is keeping cautious, and the cotton mill in Xinjiang is keeping cautious purchase. The price of seed cotton is generally rising. The main reason is that the cotton seed purchase competition exists with the increase of the cotton mill scale, and the price of pre harvest purchase is low, and the profit margins of the cotton mill are still good, which stimulates the enthusiasm of the purchase. However, the downstream demand is limited, and the purchase and sale of the new cotton market is still not active, paying attention to the changing situation of seed cotton purchase price.

The price of acrylonitrile is warm and volatile, and the trading is scarce. After the festival, the news is coming back. There are many reports on the market. The mood of the wait-and-see market is strong. The intermediate business reports are few, and the spot market is very short. The market is waiting for directions. The retail offer for reference is 12500 yuan / ton. There is no lack of low price in the market. The market is talking about the transaction. In the medium and long term, the supply of acrylonitrile is expected to increase. Acrylic fiber prices remain stable, the market has no new information guidelines, downstream factories look empty mentality, purchasing enthusiasm is not high, maintain just need to buy, the market turnover atmosphere is not good, short term cost support still exists, the industry starts generally, expect acrylic staple fiber quotation to maintain temporary stability.

In October, a large area of cotton fields in Xinjiang gradually spread into the large area of picking. The cotton production rate in Xinjiang is increasing gradually, and this year it is expected to reach 40-50%. This is understood recently by the machinery administration of agriculture and animal husbandry in the autonomous region. Xinjiang is the main cotton producing area in China. In 2018, the sown area of Xinjiang cotton reached 37 million 370 thousand mu. The sowing area this year was basically the same as that of last year. Due to the more rain in August and the lower temperature, the cotton bolting time was postponed this year and the cotton picking period was also delayed about ten days than in previous years. At present, the southern and Northern Xinjiang have entered large-scale picking stage. Data show that last year, Xinjiang new cotton picking machine 650, a total of more than 3600 Taiwan, the fastest growth rate over the years. At the same time, the area of machine picked cotton increased rapidly, and the cotton production rate in Xinjiang increased from 21% in 2016 to 30% in 2018. Conservatively estimated that this year's cotton production rate in Xinjiang is expected to reach 40-50%.

Recently, the fifteenth China International reclaimed polyester conference was held in Shanghai. The conference discussed the latest development of the global recycled polyester industry, and discussed the hot topics of the renewable polyester industry since last year, such as the multiple pressures, the market situation since this year, and the future development prospects. The conference attracted a total of more than 400 participants from overseas, mainland China, Hongkong, China, Taiwan and other countries and regions, including the original polyester plant, recycled fiber factory (general fiber, hollow, filament, etc.), regenerating bottle factory, bottle broken cleaning equipment manufacturer, traders and other industrial chain related enterprises. There were more than 20 exhibitions at the same time. At this conference, Ishikawa Masaki, Professor of economics, Department of economics, Kobe University, introduced the recent changes in the Japanese recycling market and the structural changes brought about by the EPR system. Relevant representatives from British Nexant, Austria rema engineering machinery and Equipment Co., Ltd. and Italy Suma MA (Sorema) company, etc., introduced the marketing strategy of the recycled polyester Market in the sustainable development trend, the utilization of intelligent equipment in the regeneration industry, and the innovative solutions of Italy regeneration device.

In 2019, the training course for management officials of textile and apparel industrial parks in developing countries was successfully concluded in Beijing from September 9th to September 29th. 24 officials from 11 countries participated in the current seminar. The seminar is based on the management knowledge of textile and garment industrial park and focuses on fieldwork. The purpose is to let officials fully understand the system design, organization and implementation methods and management experience of China in the development of textile and clothing. The combination of teaching, fieldwork and communication can really achieve the effect of combining theory with practice. The focus of this seminar is on field trips. During the course of the inspection and study, students from each city exchange and interact with the inspecting Park and the person in charge of the enterprise. They have an in-depth understanding of the development status of China's textile and clothing and industrial parks, the social and economic situation in China, and the history and culture.

According to the National Bureau of statistics, in September 2019, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 49.8%, up 0.3 percentage points from last month. Although it is still below the ups and downs, the overall boom has improved since last month. According to the classification index, the production index, the new order index and the supplier delivery time index are higher than the critical point in the 5 classification indices of manufacturing PMI, and the raw material inventory index and the employment index are below the critical point. The new orders index has risen for the first time since May. Production activities have been accelerated, including textile, clothing, apparel and other manufacturing industry index in the higher prosperity section of 55%. The new export orders index was 48.2%, a 1 percentage point increase in the ratio. The import index was 47.1%, a 0.4 percentage point increase. With a series of policies and measures to support the development of the real economy one after another, the expected production and business activity index of manufacturing enterprises increased by 1.1 percentage points to 54.4%, the highest in the third quarter.

On the 27 day, Ningbo issued the implementation of the "225 foreign trade double trillion action plan". The plan mentioned that by 2025, Ningbo's imports and exports will reach 1 trillion yuan respectively, including the export of electromechanical and high-tech products, the import of energy and bulk commodities to 500 billion yuan respectively, and cross-border electricity suppliers, digital trade, service trade, import of quality goods and re export trade reached 200 billion yuan respectively. It is reported that Ningbo will implement the "six trillion" special action, namely, build a first-class hub port, open up ten new emerging markets, cultivate hundreds of international brands, gather thousands of foreign trade enterprises headquarters, educate tens of thousands of international operators, and upgrade the trillions of open platforms, so as to realize the "225" foreign trade double trillion goals.

Recently, Xiao Xing group, one of the seven comprehensive Korean companies, held a signing ceremony for the new investment in carbon fiber. It announced that it would invest 1 trillion won (about 5 billion 800 million yuan) as of 2028 to build the world's largest carbon fiber production base. South Korean President Wen Yin attended the ceremony on the same day and said that "carbon fiber will be cultivated as a national strategic industry". By the end of 2018, the world's carbon fiber production capacity was 135 thousand tons in the case of global carbon fiber demand of 93 thousand tons. Japanese enterprises have more than half capacity, with a total capacity of 76 thousand tons, including 49 thousand tons in Dongli, 15 thousand tons in MITSUBISHI and 12 thousand tons in Di people. In 2018, in the field of carbon fiber, Dongli earned $2 billion, Hirsch $1 billion 800 million, and SGI $500 million. The revenue of domestic carbon fiber tap has reached US $200 million.

From the end of September to the beginning of October, the price of cotton yarn in India continued to decline under the impact of export decline, especially on China, and cotton prices were supported by increased imports from Pakistan. At present, the price of cotton yarn in India continues to be under the pressure of weak demand. China's tax exemption for Pakistan has made India mills complain constantly. In fact, the fundamental reason for the decrease of India's cotton yarn exports to China is that the US tariffs on Chinese clothing have led to a decline in demand for China's cotton yarn imports. The rebound in the rupee exchange rate in India has also led to a rise in yarn dollar quotas, and cotton exports have dropped sharply in recent months. Meanwhile, cotton prices in India remained stable. As cotton production in Pakistan is far below expectations, Pakistan's demand for cotton imports to India may increase substantially. Meanwhile, India's Cotton Corp may begin large-scale MSP acquisition after the start of the new year in October 1st.