Double 11, Double 12 Most Orders Completed Polyester Market, "Silver Ten" Production And Marketing Is Light.

Last Saturday, good news came from the Sino US trade. A new round of Sino US economic and trade consultations made substantial progress in agriculture, intellectual property protection, exchange rate and financial services. Some traders said that the first stage agreement on Sino US trade negotiations is a great benefit to cotton, cotton textile and garment industry.

According to the results of last week's negotiations, China agreed to purchase 400-500 billion US dollars of agricultural products from the United States (equivalent to China's total imports of US agricultural products for about two years, including the probability of 2019/20 cotton in the United States). In October 14th, when the domestic commodity futures market opened, Zheng cotton's main contract rose by more than 3%, and cotton contracts rose.

At the same time, other positive factors are also more recent. Iran oil tanker explosion, Europe and the United States crude oil futures rose more than 2%; PTA this month, more maintenance news, Hengli device in the post holidays as scheduled to enter the repair, Yanda grand 2 million 250 thousand tons PTA device in October 10th to reduce load to 50%.

But this series did not shake the footsteps of polyester filament. During the national day, the polyester enterprises had different levels of storage. On average, about 3 days, POY stocks were mostly around 7-12 days; FDY stocks were mostly near 10-15 days; DTY stocks were mostly near 20-25 days. When the inventory moves upward, polyester enterprises choose more price promotions to relieve pressure, but the overall effect is very small. At the same time, pet factories lost their profits and some cash flow of polyester products had fallen into losses.

What happened to the polyester market recently?

PTA production capacity worries, the whole industry chain is yes.

As of late September, the PTA social inventory was 1 million 422 thousand tons, an increase of 277 thousand tons compared to the beginning of August, and also significantly higher than the same period in 2018. The core event of the follow-up supply side is the commissioning of the first phase production capacity of new Feng Ming 2 million 200 thousand tons / year and Hengli petrochemical production capacity of 2 million 500 thousand tons / year. If these two sets of devices can produce smoothly, they will bring nearly 10% of the PTA supply increment to the domestic market. The above devices will produce more than 400 thousand tons per month if they are loaded at full capacity, which undoubtedly puts pressure on PTA market.

In terms of maintenance, the overhaul plan for October includes Hengli, Honggang and Hon Bang petrochemical units, involving capacity of 4 million 300 thousand tons / year. If the above maintenance is implemented, then the PTA supply will shrink in October, and the market may be transferred to the inventory.

On the whole, the maintenance of the PTA device is beneficial to increase profits, but with the suppression of new installations, the market will not be greatly boosted by the overhaul.

Terminal orders are not optimistic, to suppress polyester prices.

At present, the terminal orders are not optimistic, and the price of polyester is suppressed. This week, China's main weaving production base has a comprehensive starting rate of 65%, down 8% from the previous cycle. At present, most of the "double 11" and "double 12" orders have been completed, and a small number of orders still need. The procurement of polyester enterprises is more cautious, especially in the face of the increasingly deteriorating market situation, and many wait-and-see attitude.

This year's traditional peak season appears to be "gentle". The profits of the downstream sectors of the textile industry chain are poor, and the risk aversion is aggravated. In addition, data show that from 1 to August, textile yarns, fabrics and products were exported to US $79 billion 400 million, an increase of 1% over the same period last year. The total retail sales of domestic textile and apparel were 842 billion 700 million yuan, up 3.2% over the same period last year, and the growth rate of two was significantly lower than that of last year. The overall demand for textile industry is weaker than last year.

At present, raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol narrow oscillation operation, loss pressure is difficult to reduce, and polyester factory stable price shipment intention or strong, but downstream procurement raw materials multi dimensional rigid demand, is expected in the short term, polyester market production and marketing or will continue to be light, the market center of gravity or will be consolidated and cloudy. However, in the middle of October, the terminal weaving enterprises will be faced with a partial stock. When the polyester market is produced or sold, there will be a certain volume of space. The "silver ten" market will be able to stop and rebound, but the downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the market rebound is expected to be limited. (source: futures daily, long Chung petrochemical, network)