September China Cotton Textile Industry Boom Report: Although The Market Has Been Warmer, But Less Than In Previous Years

In September 2019, China's cotton textile prosperity index was 46.37, an increase of 0.46 compared with August. This is the first time that the prosperity index has rebounded after 5 consecutive months of decline. In the early September, a new round of tariff imposed by the United States was formally implemented. The levy on Tariffs involved higher textile and clothing and negative feelings on the market. After that, China and the United States agreed to hold the thirteenth round of high-level consultation on Sino US trade and economic cooperation in early October, and some good signals were released, and confidence in the market rose. In September, as a traditional textile peak season, although the market has warmed up, but less than in previous years. New cotton market, market supply of cotton resources is adequate, cotton prices lack support, textile enterprises inventory backlog, gauze prices rise difficult, business pressure is still larger. In October, Sino US economic and trade consultations made substantial progress. Market pessimism eased, cotton prices rose, stimulating downstream demand increased. Investigation and understanding showed that about 41% of enterprises indicated that post holiday orders increased more than before the festival, but enterprises reflected that the order was slightly worse, and they were actively seeking new orders.

Raw material purchase price index

In September, the purchasing price index of raw materials was 45.93, down 1.03 compared with August. Affected by Sino US economic and trade relations, cotton prices fluctuated greatly. The fluctuation of international cotton prices is higher than domestic cotton prices, and the overall trend is rising. Domestic cotton prices rose first and then fell, or larger than the increase. In terms of data, the average CotlookA index is 71.32 cents / pound, up 0.54 cents / pound. Domestic 3128B cotton spot average price is 12759 yuan / ton, a decrease of 284 yuan / ton. Viscose staple fiber price changes are divided into three stages in the aspect of chemical fiber staple. In the first ten days, there was a downward trend. The price of polyester staple fiber is divided into two stages, that is, the first half of the month rose, and the latter half fell. From the point of view of average price, the average price of viscose staple fiber decreased, and the average price of PET staple increased. Specific data, in August, the average price of mainstream viscose fiber was 10689 yuan / ton, a decrease of 599 yuan / ton. 1.4D straight spinning polyester short average price of 7355 yuan / ton, a rise of 143 yuan / ton. At present, the average price of CotlookA index and mainstream viscose staple fiber has increased slightly compared with September, but the average price of grade 3128 cotton and polyester staple fiber is lower than that of September.

Raw material inventory index

In September, the stock index of raw materials was 46.32, down 0.9 compared with August. Investigation and understanding, in September, the cotton inventory reduction enterprises accounted for about 24%, about 65% of the total, and only 11% of the enterprises' cotton stocks increased. About 12% of the stocks of chemical fiber stocks were reduced, accounting for about 82% of the total stocks, accounting for 6% of the increase. According to the China Cotton Association data, the total cotton business inventory in the end of August was about 2 million 520 thousand and 900 tons. In September, new cotton was listed on the market. Reserve cotton was still in store. The supply of cotton resources in the market was abundant, and cotton prices fell. The raw materials of chemical fiber staple are basically bought and used, and they will not be stored in large quantities. In October, cotton prices were on the warmer trend. It is estimated that the stock of cotton in spinning enterprises may increase, and that the stock of chemical fiber staple is unlikely to change.

Production index

In September, the production index was 46.29, an increase of 0.41 compared with August. According to investigation and research, the output of enterprises increased by 65% in September compared with that in August. About 24% of the enterprises were flat, and 11% of the enterprises with reduced production. In September, the average operating rate of textile enterprises remained above 80%, and large and medium-sized enterprises basically maintained full load production. Some small and medium-sized enterprises started a slight shortage due to problems such as funds and orders. In September, when the autumn harvest season was in the north, some enterprises increased their vacation to stabilize their employees and maintain the normal production and operation of enterprises. Tracking enterprise data shows that yarn production increased by 1.17% in September, and cloth production increased by 0.94%. Enterprises reflect that although the market is warmer than in the past few months, there is still a gap from the real rebound. The "double eleven" order is basically finished, and whether the follow up orders can continue to follow up is a matter of concern to enterprises at present.

Product sales index

In September, the product sales index was 46.09, up 1.73 compared with August. In the first ten days, the market mentality improved slightly due to the rising price of raw materials. The demand for seasonal products of some textile enterprises was increasing. The shipment of conventional varieties was relatively concentrated, but the market lacked the basic support and the domestic market competition pressure was bigger. In the last ten days, the market of cotton yarn is relatively stable. The prices of yarn varieties in some mainstream markets have rebounded. Weaving factory orders increased significantly earlier than before, but low profit margins, there is still a price reduction phenomenon, the largest single is particularly obvious. In terms of price, the average price of 32 pure cotton combed yarns is 20173 yuan / ton, a decrease of 387 yuan / ton, and the average price of pure cotton grey fabric (32*32 130*70 2/1 47 "twill") is 4.96 yuan / meter, and the ring ratio is 0.21 yuan / meter. After the holiday, some enterprises' orders increased, but the maintenance time was not long. After the setback of the export market, most enterprises began to sell domestically, and domestic supply pressure increased, and prices continued to be weak.

Product inventory index

In September, the product inventory index was 46.68, an increase of 1.48 compared with August. In September, although the demand for products in the downstream market increased, the market parties bought and sold on demand, but the inventory of textile enterprises was still at a high level. Most enterprises favored small profits but quick turnover, and reduced inventory. There was also a lack of "price war". Some enterprises reflect inventory reduction of around 15 days in September, and the inventory level of enterprises is still maintained for about 2 months. Investigation and understanding, in September, the reduction of product inventory accounted for about 42% of enterprises, accounting for about 35% of the total, accounting for 23% of the increase. Tracking enterprise data showed that the stock of pure cotton yarn decreased most obviously, and the inventory of pure cotton yarn decreased by 2.47% in September. At present, the "silver ten" is about to end. The market has not yet seen a similar scene in previous years. The wait-and-see attitude is still strong, and the market is short of positive stimulation in the short term, and the market is expected to operate steadily.

Business index

In September, the business index was 46.82, an increase of 1.14 compared with August. In September, the pressure of cotton textile enterprises was still large, the price of gauze continued to decline, the profit margins of enterprises were constantly reduced or even lost, and some small and medium-sized enterprises were still troubled by the problem of working capital. For the development of the future market, some enterprises said that Sino US trade frictions are coming to the dawn, market confidence is restored, and the market is likely to improve in the future. Investigation and understanding, about 53% of enterprises are optimistic about the market outlook, 24% of enterprises believe that market change is less likely, and 23% of enterprises believe that the market will continue to decline in the future.

Explain: China's cotton textile industry boom index was collected from more than 200 cotton textile enterprises in the country. By weighting multiple key indicators, when the index was higher than 50, it indicated that the cotton textile industry's prosperity was better than that of 50.