From "Full-Time Speculation" To The Rise And Transformation Of Gem Operators

Song Wenhui diagram

Many investment managers are gradually losing their enthusiasm in the "no look at the motherboard" craziness. The buyer's market rules of the game, along with the change of the gem, have undergone tremendous adjustments and changes.

In this change, a new "public offering one brother", "private one brother", "cattle scattered" and other "one vote" star investors were born. The development of small and medium sized culture has evolved over the years. Even "manipulation of the circulation market" has been very popular.

At the peak time, the phenomenon of public fund raising or even full storeboard has been widely discussed. Even in recent years, the phenomenon of "value holding stocks" that reflects the characteristics of public offering funds has aroused more concern before the market.

During the bull market, many public funds began to adjust their investment ideas in pursuit of performance rankings. Many institutions began to choose stocks from top to bottom, adding to the hype of various themes. In particular, the large scale development of decentralized funds that individual investors can take part in is promoting the deepening of the bull market of gem, and has also laid hidden dangers for the future. An investment director of a large public fund in Southern China was interviewed.

The ups and downs of gem stars

Over the past ten years, the growth enterprise market has created multiple growth myths.

300359.SZ, 300431.SZ, 300104.SZ and An Shuo 300380.SZ have attracted several investors' attention.

Typical is music network. "At that time, when music was on fire, there was a lot of money to stir up music, and the market was full of fanaticism. Even fund managers had become Jia Yueting's admirers, and they believed in the concept of music network." A public fund manager recalled the grand occasion before the twenty-first Century economic report reporter.

From the data point of view, in 2015, the number of public funds raised by music network reached its peak. At the end of the year, a total of 207 funds owned music network, with a total market capitalization of 5 billion 554 million yuan, accounting for 5.15% of the shares.

On the whole, in addition to LETV, 300017.SZ, 300496.SZ of the gem company also accounted for the top 20 list of public fund holdings. Ranking even exceeded the 000333.SZ and 000858.SZ, which are popular among public funds.

"At the beginning of the year, we mainly focused on investment in gem, when many companies were hot and attracted a lot of money to hype, but hyped companies often did not perform well. During the bull market in 2015, a lot of fund managers blindly sought after the stock market. Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, said.

In fact, the consequent changes also cause huge earthquakes in the industry. After the music network fell down the altar, the public fund quickly lowered its valuation and withdrew.

According to the 2018 China daily data, there were only 11 public funds raised by LETV, holding a market capitalization of 110 million yuan, accounting for 0.25% of the shares in circulation. This is a 94.69% reduction compared with the number of positions held in the peak period in 2015.

In addition to star companies, star trader is also an important promoter of gem.

For example, Ren Zesong, a star fund manager, won the title of the annual stock fund in the year 2013, earning 80% in the post office. Behind this is the help of GEM stocks.

But once the market changes, the "sharp weapon" has become a "sharp sword". In June 2018, the star fund manager announced his resignation. Soon after, the name of Ren Ze song appeared in the list of top executives of a private equity fund.

"Historically, from the beginning of 2013 to June 2015, this is the golden period for the growth of gem, which rose by more than 400%. In 2015 and 2016, the gem started a gradual retracement. During the period, the largest retracement reached 70%, while there was a pro cyclical factor in the position of the public offering fund for gem, and the proportion increased from 2013 to the first half of 2015, and the proportion gradually decreased after 2016." Zhang Ting, a fortune researcher, said.

From "hot spots" to "heavy fundamentals"

In the vicissitude of the market, the investment logic of public offering funds is also following changes.

"The growth of gem in 2013 is accompanied by the early development of Internet in China. GEM stocks have performance support, while the rise in 2015 is more driven by valuations, downhill interest rates, leveraged growth and various policy incentives. During this period, most of the stocks rising depend on storytelling, shell resources speculation, and so on, and performance support is weak." An analyst from a well-known third party organization said.

However, the current data reflect that after a period of adjustment, the proportion of public offering funds to gem has increased.

"This round of this year's rise is the birth of profits. Since 2019, the performance of GEM has increased, and the performance of leading stocks has improved. The analyst said.

Yin Hao, manager of ETF and connecting fund manager, said in an interview with the economic news reporter twenty-first Century, "in the past ten years, the gem has become the representative of China's emerging economy, especially high-tech. With the increasing weight of the emerging economy in the Chinese economy, the stock market position of the public offering fund is increasing. However, with the different stages of the development of gem, the situation of public fund investment in the gem is constantly changing.

This change can be summarized in three stages: the first stage is the establishment of gem, and the number of GEM companies is increasing at the end of 2012, and the valuation of these companies is relatively high at the beginning of the listing. At this stage, the overall position of the gem is not high. The second stage is the big bull market from early 2013 to 2015. The big bull market is largely due to the frequent mergers and acquisitions of listed companies, the higher the epitaxial growth, the heavier the atmosphere of conceptual speculation, and the fact that a lot of public offerings are also involved in the theme speculation. The third stage is that after 2016, especially after the introduction of the new regulation of the information management system, the increase of the reputation of the growth enterprise market has entered the stage of valuation. In Yin Hao's view,

Paying attention to fundamental change in stock selection is also the core point that many organizations have pointed out when interviewed.

"Over the past ten years, the most important thing for public funds to invest in gem is to focus on fundamental research and value investment. We prefer those who have basic support, core technology and future potential. " Yang Delong pointed out.

"Gem's overall investment opportunities remain large. On the one hand, the domestic emerging industries are still in the period of rapid growth, and the policies are also continuing to fall. The gem has the long-term value of allocation. On the other hand, the valuation level of the gem is also in a relatively low historical position, with an upward elastic space. However, investment should still focus on actual performance and seek greater certainty. Yin Hao said.