Market Analysis Of Polyester Bottle Chip Market In The Third Quarter: Downward Trend In Stalemate

The three quarter of 2019 has already passed, and the market of polyester bottle tablets is in a stalemate. Although there has been a price rise in the middle, it is a flash in the pan. The third quarter is the peak season for terminal consumption, but the demand is weak in the market, and the pattern is difficult to improve.

Price chart of polyester bottle 2019

   

Price analysis: In the three quarter of 2019, the market prices of PET bottles were generally down. The average price of PET bottles in East China fell from 7525 yuan / ton in July to 6876 yuan / ton, and the decrease was 649 yuan / ton in the quarter, or 8.62%. The average price of this quarter decreased by 2938 yuan / ton compared with the same period last year. The production cost of bottle maker is hovering near the guarantee line. Although the manufacturer has the mentality of keeping the price, it will not be able to compete with the market after all, but the end demand side will take the price to pick up the goods.

Influencing factors: From the peak season of the whole market, the third quarter is off season from the peak season, so there will be a weak market expectation in terms of price or demand. According to long Zhong information statistics, in the third quarter, the output of PET bottles was 2 million 167 thousand and 900 tons, an increase of 65 thousand and 900 tons compared with the same period last year, an increase of 3.14%. According to the National Bureau of statistics, the output of soft drinks in the third quarter was about 5 million 50 thousand tons, compared with the same period in 2018, the output increased by 330 thousand tons, an increase of 6.9%. The export volume in the third quarter was 695 thousand and 100 tons, an increase of 13 thousand and 700 tons compared with the same period last year, an increase of 20.1%. From several sets of data, the demand for bottle flakes on the surface is increasing, but considering the change of base number of the National Bureau of statistics, the reference value of soft drink production is not large. In addition, the progress of macro US China trade consultation and some unexpected factors affected raw material price rise sharply, so the bottle film market was in a passive way and adjusted accordingly.

Supply side: Before the national day, the raw materials were dragged down, and the demand for bottle flakes was weak. The manufacturers considered the cost factors and basically kept the price. Local pet bottle manufacturers inventory is in the initial stage of storage. Therefore, after seven days of long holidays, the stock of bottle makers is generally high. At present, the overall operating rate of the bottle piece industry has narrowed down compared with the previous stage, but the terminal demand is weak, and the bottle stocks in the fourth quarter are maintained or slightly maintained.

Outlook for future market: In terms of raw materials, up to now, the new PTA plant has put aside 2 million 200 thousand tons of new Feng Ming, 2 million 500 thousand tons of Liaoning, and 1 million 200 thousand tons of Xinjiang in 2019. The processing fee of the PTA industry is 700 yuan / ton. Downstream weaving and textile orders have been received in the late Spring Festival, polyester production and marketing or continued to fade. October is drawing to a close. The market prices of PET bottles continue to decline. Most of the industry said that the market remained the same for the rest of the year. If opportunity rebounded, the space and sustainability would be limited. At present, the overall market atmosphere is pessimistic. Bottle makers consider inventory problems, and there are many plans for reducing production and maintenance. Downstream beverage terminals have been locked ahead of schedule this year. If there is replenishment, the quantity is scarce. Other terminals are cautious in every industry and adopt replenishment strategy with market. Overall, the cost side is empty. Long Zhong expects the fourth quarter PET bottle market will continue to be weak in the absence of obvious favorable factors. Whether it can improve or not, we need to pay attention to macro information, PTA device maintenance. The new plant has been put into mass production and the progress of ethylene glycol to inventory.