Operation Of China Purchasing Manager Index In October 2019

1. Operation of purchasing managers index of China's manufacturing industry

In October 2019, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 49.3%, down 0.5 percentage points from last month.

From the scale of enterprises, the PMI of large enterprises is 49.9%, down 0.9 percentage points from last month; PMI of medium-sized enterprises is 49%, higher than that of last month 0.4 percentage points; small enterprises PMI is 47.9%, lower than 0.9 percentage points of last month.

According to the classification index, production index and supplier delivery time index are higher than the critical point in the 5 classification indices of manufacturing PMI. The new order index, raw material inventory index and employment index are below the critical point.

Production index was 50.8%, down 1.5 percentage points from last month, still higher than the critical point, indicating that manufacturing production continued to expand and the pace of expansion slowed down.

The new order index was 49.6%, down 0.9 percentage points from last month to a critical point, indicating that the manufacturing market demand has dropped.

The stock index of raw materials was 47.4%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from last month, which is below the critical point, indicating that the main raw material inventory of the manufacturing industry is reduced.

The employment index is 47.3%, up 0.3 percentage points from last month, which is below the critical point, indicating that the decline in employment volume in manufacturing enterprises has narrowed.

The supplier delivery time index was 50.1%, although it dropped 0.4 percentage points from last month, but slightly above the critical point, indicating that the delivery time of manufacturing raw material suppliers increased slightly from last month.

Two. Operation of China's non Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index

In October 2019, the index of non manufacturing business activity was 52.8%, down 0.9 percentage points from last month, indicating that the non manufacturing sector remained on the whole expanding and the growth rate slowed down.

According to the industry, the business activity index of the service sector was 51.4%, down from 1.6 percentage points last month, and the service industry boom has dropped. From the industry category, business activities index of air transport, postal industry, Internet software and information technology services and other industries are located in the high economic zone above 55%, and the total business volume continues to expand rapidly. Wholesale business, capital market services, real estate and other industries business activity index is located in the contraction area. The construction business activity index was 60.4%, up 2.8 percentage points from last month, and returned to the high economic zone.

The new order index was 49.4%, down 1.1 percentage points from last month, below the critical point, indicating a decrease in orders in the non manufacturing market. According to the industry, the new order index of the service sector was 48.4%, down 1.3 percentage points from last month, and the construction industry new orders index was 54.8%, down 0.3 percentage points from last month.

The price index of input products was 51.3%, down 1.5 percentage points from last month, which is above the critical point, indicating that the overall level of input prices of non manufacturing enterprises for business activities has narrowed. According to the industry, the price index of the service industry input is 50.9%, down 1.9 percentage points from last month, and the construction industry input price index is 53.1%, up 0.6 percentage points from last month.

The sales price index was 48.9%, down 1.1 percentage points from last month, and fell below the critical point, indicating that the overall level of non manufacturing sales prices fell. According to the industry, the sales price index of the service sector was 48.4%, down 1.4 percentage points from last month, and the construction industry sales price index was 52.2%, up 0.8 percentage points from last month.

The employment index was 48.2%, unchanged from last month, below the critical point, indicating a decrease in the employment volume of non manufacturing enterprises. According to the industry, the index of service industry employees was 47.6%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from last month, and the construction industry employment index was 51.8%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from last month.

The business activity expectation index is 60.7%, up 1 percentage points from last month, and rose to the high prosperity section, which indicates that the confidence of non manufacturing enterprises in the future market development is enhanced. According to the industry, the service sector business activity index is 60.3%, an increase of 1 percentage points from last month, and the construction industry activity activity index is 63.2%, up 1.2 percentage points from last month.

Three. Operation of China's comprehensive PMI output index

In October 2019, the composite PMI output index was 52%, down 1.1 percentage points from last month, indicating that China's enterprises' production and operation activities continued to expand in general.

Note appended

1. main indicators explanation

The purchasing managers index (PMI) is an index compiled by the monthly survey results of enterprise purchasing managers. It covers all aspects of enterprise procurement, production and circulation, including manufacturing and non manufacturing industries. It is one of the international leading indicators for monitoring macroeconomic trends. It has strong prediction and early warning effect. The comprehensive PMI output index is a comprehensive index reflecting the output changes of the whole industry (manufacturing and non manufacturing industries) in the PMI index system. PMI usually takes 50% as the dividing point of economic strength. When PMI is above 50%, it reflects the overall economic expansion; below 50% reflects the overall economic contraction.

2. scope of investigation

It involves 31 industry categories, 3000 survey samples, 37 industry categories and 4000 survey samples in the manufacturing industry classification of the national economy (GB/T4754-2017).

3. survey methodology

Purchasing managers investigate the adoption of PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method, with manufacturing or non manufacturing industries as the main category, and the sample size of the industry is allocated to the proportion of all manufacturing or non manufacturing added value according to their added value, and the probability of sampling is proportional to the proportion of the main business income in the sample.

The survey was carried out by the investigation team directly under the National Bureau of statistics.

4. calculation method

(1) calculation method of classification index. The purchasing management survey index system of manufacturing industry includes production, new orders, new export orders, in hand orders, finished goods inventory, purchase quantity, import, main raw material purchase price, ex factory price, raw material inventory, employees, supplier delivery time, production and operation activity expectations 13 classification index. Non Manufacturing Purchasing Managers survey index system includes business activity, new orders, new export orders, in hand orders, inventory, input price, sales price, employees, supplier delivery time, business activity expectations and so on 10 sub index. The index of classification is calculated by diffusion index, that is, the percentage of enterprises answered positively and half of the percentage of respondents who answered the same. Because there is no composite index in the non manufacturing sector, the general business activity index is generally used to reflect the overall change of the economic development of the non manufacturing industry.

(2) the calculation method of PMI index in manufacturing industry. Manufacturing PMI is calculated by weighting the 5 diffusion indices (classification index). The 5 classification index and its weights are determined according to their antecedent impact on the economy. Including: the new order index, the weight is 30%, the production index, the weight is 25%, the employee index, the weight is 20%, the supplier delivery time index, the weight is 15%, the raw material inventory index, the weight is 10%. Among them, the supplier delivery time index is an inverse index, and the reverse operation is made in the synthetic manufacturing PMI index.

(3) comprehensive PMI output index calculation method. The composite PMI output index is weighted by the manufacturing production index and the non manufacturing business activity index. The weights are the proportion of manufacturing and non manufacturing industries to GDP.

5. seasonal adjustment

Purchasing manager survey is a monthly survey, which is affected by seasonal factors and fluctuates greatly. The indices now are all seasonally adjusted.