The Three Quarterly Report Of Listed Companies: "Report Card": The Growth Bottleneck Of The Industry Leading To The Emergence Of "Rotation" Of Farming And Industrial Products.

In October 31st, the three quarter was officially closed.

By the end of October 30th, 3097 A share listed companies had released three quarterly reports. In the first three quarters, the total revenue of these companies was 21 trillion and 70 billion yuan and net profit was 2 trillion and 70 billion yuan, representing an increase of 10.55% and 9.93% respectively over the same period last year.

While achieving overall growth, there are some internal divisions. In addition to the continued growth of financial sectors such as banks, brokerages and insurance, the growth of other large and medium sized enterprises is facing some problems. The most typical ones are the upstream raw materials industry such as steel and chemical industry after the ebb tide, and some of the consumption industries, such as the dragon head company, whose base is too high to slow down.

By contrast, GEM companies, represented by communications and electronics, have welcomed the turning point of their performance. According to statistics, the 772 GEM companies that have announced their performance forecasts, the average growth rate of net profit to their mothers in the first three quarters was 38.14%, compared with -62.97% in the same period last year.

In response to this, Tianfeng securities attributed it to a sharp decline in the performance of the tail stocks and a substantial contribution to the stocks. Meanwhile, the performance base of GEM companies in the 3 quarter of 2018 to the 2 quarter of 2019 was lower, and the profits of some of the top companies increased significantly.

Leading shares enter growth bottleneck?

The growth rate of super large enterprises includes two types. One is the internal adjustment of the industry, the other is the high base of its past, and gradually began to enter the bottleneck stage.

On the evening of October 30th, SAIC issued its three quarterly report. The company's operating income in the first three quarters of 2019 was 585 billion 345 million yuan, down 13.25% compared to the same period last year. Net profit was 20 billion 793 million yuan, down 24.86% compared to the same period last year.

Fortunately, the 24.86% decline has narrowed compared with the China Daily. However, judging from the three quarter performance of the entire automobile industry, we can not conclude that the bottom is coming. Of the 13 vehicle manufacturing enterprises that have disclosed three quarterly reports, only 5 of the first three quarter profits grew year on year.

In the new energy automobile industry, under the background of negative growth of overall production and sales, profits are redistributed within the industrial chain.

Data show that the first three quarters of the lithium battery industry, which is located in the upper reaches of the lithium battery, has a net profit of 329 million yuan, compared with 1 billion 107 million yuan in the same period last year. The net profit of the downstream power battery manufacturer in Ningde increased from 2 billion 379 million yuan in the same period of 2018 to 3 billion 464 million yuan.

"This year, the prices of lithium carbonate and other products have dropped considerably, which has obviously depressed the profitability of upstream enterprises. It is expected that the price of products will fall further next year, but investment institutions still have some differences. " A lithium ion industry listed company 30 introduced.

What needs to be pointed out is that in recent two years, whether it is the evolution of the profit trend of the industry or the flow of funds in the two tier market, the main direction is the leading companies in various industries.

In the three quarterly report this year, some leading companies have shown some weakness, including the most typical liquor companies on the head.

In addition to the slower growth of Moutai's profits in Guizhou, Wuliangye's growth rate slowed down in the three quarter. The company's profit growth in the first three quarters of this year was 32.12%, compared with 36.32% in the same period last year. Shuijingfang's profits in the first three quarters were 38.13%, compared with 90.15% in the same period last year.

The reason is that after nearly five years of continuous growth of wine enterprises, the profit base has been very alarming, and the slowdown has become an inevitable trend. The seasoning industry also faces similar problems.

In contrast, the gem began to usher in the turning point of performance. Of the 772 GEM listed companies with comparable data, 437 of the first three quarters of the year saw an increase in profits.

Take the communications industry, which is more concentrated in GEM companies, for example, the total profit has increased from 7 billion 200 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2018 to 18 billion 800 million yuan in the same period this year.

The rise of aquaculture industry

Farming is probably the most profitable industry this year.

There are only 12 listed companies listed in Shenwan aquaculture industry, of which 6 have net profit of more than 1 billion yuan in the first three quarters, 6 billion 85 million yuan in Wen's stock, 2 billion 705 million yuan in Shennong's development, 1 billion 387 million yuan in stock in the stock market.

More noteworthy is that from 7 to September this year is a quarterly outbreak of profit in the livestock industry. Take pasture stock as an example, the single quarter net profit in the two quarter was 385 million yuan, and the three quarter increased to 1 billion 543 million yuan.

This achievement has a solid foundation. Data show that in July of this year, the average selling price of hog stock was 16.01 yuan / kg, up to 26.17 yuan / kg in September. Meanwhile, the monthly sales of hog remained at about 700 thousand, or even a slight increase.

"The company expects sales of live pigs from 2 million 100 thousand to 3 million 100 thousand in the fourth quarter." Mu Yuan stock securities department 30, said.

In view of the fundamentals, pig prices are still rising in October this year. As long as the fourth quarter continues to maintain the monthly sales volume of 700 thousand, the single season profit scale of the stock will continue to rise sharply, which has not yet included the pulling factors of pig raising.

This situation is also applicable to other pig breeding enterprises. The profit of the chicken industry chain is mainly concentrated in the chicken seedling link, and the listed companies with higher business concentration will have stronger elasticity in the fourth quarter.

It needs to be pointed out that the high profit state of the aquaculture industry will further transmit to the downstream of the industrial chain.

"In order to improve pig weight as soon as possible and increase protein supply only, there is a concentrated purchase of soybean meal in the recent market, and the prices of downstream agricultural products may also follow the upward trend." A derivatives industry in Chengdu told reporters in October 30th.

By contrast, the price of traditional industrial products has changed since the change of price logic, and the price of products has dropped during the year. Coupled with the double squeeze of the high profit base in 2018, the performance in the first three quarters of this year is not satisfactory.

Among the 17 Listed Companies in the three quarterly reports, 15 of the first three quarters net profit fell. In the same period, its total profit fell from 53 billion 272 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2018 to 27 billion 95 million yuan in the first three quarters of this year, a drop of 49.14%.

In the chemical industry, because of the large number of industrial chains, the decline is not as obvious as that of iron and steel. However, the 329 companies with comparable data in the first three quarters of the year also showed a 18.5% decline compared with the same period last year.

The good news is that the fall in the prices of industrial products can effectively reduce the cost pressure of downstream manufacturing industries. The whole process of deduction is only a gradual transmission of industrial chain.