New Energy Vehicle Crosses "Labor Pains": When Linear Falls, We Will Encounter "Cliff Type" Retreat.

"No gold, no silver." An industry insider can not help but talk about the current auto market. The traditional "golden nine silver ten" theory of automobile consumption has faded in a series of sluggish data.

In recent years, the rapid growth of new energy vehicles have not been spared. Since July, the sales of new energy vehicles have declined for three consecutive months due to the downturn in subsidies and the overall downturn in the automotive market. The car market seems to have lost the only growth engine.

Immediately, the market cooling is directly reflected in the company's performance. Whether it is 600733.SH or BYD, the recent performance is not optimistic in. Data showed that the three quarter of Beiqi Blue Valley lost 367 million yuan, while BYD's net profit dropped 90%, while the three quarter profit was only 120 million yuan.

Despite the growth of new energy vehicles in the market, such as Tesla, which launched the key "volume" product in China this year, the industry trend has changed as a whole: according to statistics, in the first three quarters of this year, new energy vehicle companies including BYD, Beiqi new energy, Changan new energy, Jianghuai new energy and so on, the annual sales target average completion rate is less than 50%.

Worse still, the situation is hard to reverse in the fourth quarter. According to BYD's forecast, the demand for car market in the fourth quarter will still show a trend of overall weakness, and the profit situation of the company's new energy vehicle business is still "not very ideal".

How will the new energy vehicle companies go through the throes?

Why did sales decline in the three quarter?

In the first half of this year, BYD has become one of the few Chinese car companies that have achieved sales growth, revenue and net profit growth due to the sharp growth of new energy vehicle sales. But after the second half of the year, the situation changed.

Data show that BYD sold about 107 thousand and 800 cars in the third quarter, down 15% from the same period last year, of which the sales of new energy vehicles were about 47 thousand, down 31.5% from the same period last year. Starting in July, BYD's new energy vehicle sales continued to decline, and the monthly decline continued to expand, respectively, 11.4%, 23.44%, 50.97%.

BYD is not alone. In the same way, the new energy vehicle sales in the A share market were also slowing down from July, and sales dropped by 13.5% in September.

The industry generally believes that the decline in subsidies is the reason for the three quarter sales decline. However, in twenty-first Century, the economic report reporters learned that despite the implementation of the new subsidy standard in late June this year, many models did not rise in price.

The sales impact of subsidies is only theoretical analysis. As a matter of fact, the situation of the new energy vehicle terminal market has not been much improved after the subsidy has gone down, mainly in the new brands such as Wei Lai, while the traditional car companies such as BYD and Roewe have implemented the strategy of "Insured price".

Some analysts believe that even if the price of new energy vehicles really rises due to the decline of subsidies, it will not really affect consumers' choice. When consumers choose new energy vehicles, prices are only one of the factors. More considerations are given to whether the city is limited by licensing, and whether more emphasis should be placed on emission reduction and environmental protection. Wang Qing, deputy director of the Institute of market economy of the State Council Development Research Center, said.

On the afternoon of October 31st, a person inside BYD told reporters on twenty-first Century economic report that sales of new energy vehicles in the three quarter was mainly affected by the spillover effect of the "state six" switch.

In July this year, many cities and regions across the country increased the emission standards of fuel vehicles, and no longer allowed to sell "country five" models. On the eve of the switch of "state five" to "six countries", car dealers and dealers have gone through a wave of crazy price cuts in order to clean up inventory quickly.

"The price system of the car market is almost collapse, and new energy vehicles are inevitably affected." The above said that the "state five" vehicle depot, largely overdrawn, is not a strong demand for automobile consumption.

The price of "Insured price"

One way to implement the "price protection" strategy for vehicle enterprises is to reduce the manufacturer's guidance price of new energy vehicles, so as to maintain the original vehicle price level after the reduction of subsidy amount, that is to say, vehicle enterprises will take the "bottom up" for the subsidy to go back to the slope.

Compared with fuel vehicles, the price of new energy vehicles has not yet formed an advantage. Insiders told reporters that at the same time, the same configuration of electric vehicles is more expensive than fuel vehicles 4~6 million, in order to win the market, the government subsidies to quit, enterprises can only go on.

The way to deal with car companies is to reduce costs. GAC New Energy Automotive Co., Ltd. party secretary the Yellow River told reporters frankly, manufacturers also want to raise prices, but the problem is that users will not buy it, so after the refund, the GAC new energy will not raise the price of the original product, but it will be sold in a large amount after the new modification and large scale reduction.

The above BYD personage also told reporters that BYD has completed a variety of vehicle iteration in the three quarter. The new model can reduce the battery requirements through the light weight transformation of the car body. It is also accelerating the application of the E platform, relying on the E platform and the BNA vehicle structure, hoping to achieve highly integrated product development and cost reduction.

However, from the level of subsidised subsidies, the cost saved by car enterprises can only cover part of the subsidy compensation. According to the latest subsidy policy, compared with last year, the amount of subsidy reduction is 10000 yuan, and the cost of battery saving is only 1000 yuan. Take a pure electric car with a mileage longer than 400 kilometers as an example, in 2018, it can enjoy 5 national supplement and 25 thousand land subsidy, but this year only gets the highest 25 thousand national subsidy.

"The rate of cost reduction is certainly less than that of subsidies. The cost reduction is linear, but the subsiding of the subsidy is cliff shaped. The above BYD people said, "what enterprises can do is to reduce costs as much as possible and get rid of some of them."

Next year is expected to rebound.

Reducing costs is a long-term proposition for the development of new energy vehicles. In essence, subsidized retreat is also hoped to give the industry "weaning", so that new energy vehicles can really reduce costs and achieve equal competition with fuel vehicles.

The ideal path is that the industry supports policies with enough funds to cultivate users and increase sales volume. Vehicle companies accumulate technology in the process and ultimately reduce costs, but in fact, this link has not been opened up. The three quarter sales of "Waterloo" show that sales of new energy vehicles have not stabilized, but subsidies will soon be withdrawn, leaving only three years for the new energy automotive industry.

Fortunately, the most dangerous moment has passed. The above BYD people believe that with the reduction of the base of subsidies, the impact of subsidise will be smaller next year. "Next year will not be so worried this year."

In addition, the overdraft of the "five country" and "state six" switch over consumption is expected to be digested this year. "We estimate that the wave is about one month to half a year's consumption demand, the impact is medium and long term, but next year the situation should be much better." These people said.

But the pace of cost reduction has not stopped. It is reported that in June next year, BYD will launch a series of "Han" models equipped with new lithium iron phosphate batteries. At present, the pure electric passenger car in the domestic market is mainly equipped with three yuan lithium battery. BYD re promotes the lithium iron phosphate battery, on the one hand, it should deal with the battery safety problem, on the other hand, it will further reduce the cost.

Since the first half of this year, there have been a number of spontaneous combustion incidents of electric vehicles in China. Although there are various reasons for the spontaneous combustion of batteries, the three yuan lithium battery with higher energy density is more unstable, and the safety of lithium iron phosphate batteries is relatively high.

"Lithium iron phosphate batteries are not widely used in passenger cars, mainly because they are larger in size under the same conditions." The above said that BYD is developing a new type of lithium iron phosphate battery to enhance its volume specific energy density, while the cost level, lithium iron phosphate battery is three lower than the 20% lithium battery.