According To The Latest Forecast Released By The Atlanta Fed, Retail Sales In The US Declined In September.

The retail sales in the US (2019) in September dropped 0.3%, lower than the market expected growth of 0.3%, the first negative growth since February this year. Although the commerce department increased the retail sales data from 0.4% to 0.6% in August, economists worry that the GDP growth rate in the US is as high as 66%, and the growth rate of GDP in the third quarter is estimated to be down.

According to the latest forecast released by the Atlanta fed, the third quarter GDP in the US can grow by 1.8%. But Capital Economics estimates that in the third quarter, private consumption could grow by only 2.5%, down from 4.6% in the second quarter, due to a sudden decline in retail sales in September, and it is estimated that GDP will grow 1.5% in the third quarter.

The decline in retail sales in September shows that the trade war has depressed the US manufacturing sector and the strike of GM has affected tens of thousands of supply chain employees, which has obviously affected the overall consumption intention. But with the first stage oral agreement between the US China trade negotiations and the end of General Motors strike, the impact of the retail downturn in September may be a short-term phenomenon.

In addition, the index of consumer confidence released by Michigan University has risen from 89.8 in August to 93.2 in September, and in October it has climbed further to 96. According to this leading indicator, the decline of retail sales in September is likely to be affected by the sudden drop in confidence index in August, and the next two months will slowly increase.

The Ministry of Commerce said that the decline in retail sales mainly reflected family spending on building materials, online shopping and automobiles. Gas station revenues also fell 0.7% due to falling oil prices. But after deducting the fluctuating consumption of cars, petrol, building materials and food, the core retail data in September were unchanged from August.