Will The Price Trend Of China'S New Cotton Market Exceed Market Expectations?

At the beginning of October, in the context of Sino US trade easing, domestic cotton prices rebounded from low levels. At present, cotton harvest in the northern part of Xinjiang is coming to an end, and cotton in southern Xinjiang has also entered the peak of listing. The reduction in production is expected to make the seed cotton purchase price continue to rise, supporting cotton price rebound, but at the same time, the new flower hedging pressure and demand pressure have also limited the rebound rate of cotton prices to a certain extent.

Since May this year, the price of cotton has continued to decline under the influence of Sino US trade friction, global cotton production and weak downstream demand. Indeed, before the start of the new flower, the market generally expects domestic cotton output in the new year to be flat or slightly fluctuating. Soft consumption is the main factor affecting cotton prices. However, after the national day's trade negotiations between China and the United States are well affected, cotton prices begin to rebound from the low level. Meanwhile, with the beginning of the new flower in North Xinjiang, the production of new flowers is expected to increase gradually, and the rising price of seed cotton makes the cost of leather cotton rise, which leads to a situation of mutual promotion between spot and futures.

For the new flower yield, the temperature in Xinjiang area is generally low and rainfall is too high in the early stage of cotton seeding and growth in this year. The effective accumulated temperature is not enough to delay the growth and development of cotton. However, the higher temperature in August is very suitable for cotton growth, and the growth and development of cotton have been restored. However, after entering the cotton ripening stage in September, the rapid cooling and delayed growth still caused the maturity of cotton not enough, the top peach was not strong, the single boll weight was lighter, and the cotton boll growers in southern Xinjiang responded to a single boll weight of 4-5 grams in the past years, but this year only 3 grams were generally prevalent. Thus, after the new flower began to harvest in Northern Xinjiang, farmers in various areas responded to this year's cotton production. Statistics show that Changji, Shihezi, Kuitun, Wusu and other places in Northern Xinjiang have reduced production more or less, roughly reducing production by 50 kg / mu.

With the discovery of cotton production in the northern Xinjiang and the development of new flower harvest in southern Xinjiang, the situation of yield reduction was also found. According to the recent survey, farmers in southern Xinjiang except Bazhou, Weili generally indicated that there was a reduction in production, and the yield per unit area decreased by 50-100 kg / mu. However, due to the improvement of linen percentage and the output of large farm households, the total production decline was relatively good. Therefore, on the whole, the probability of cotton production reduction in the new year is larger, but the range is still relatively limited, which may be around 5-10%, but the specific situation still needs to wait for the data of public inspection. It is worth mentioning that this year's new flower listing has been postponed, and cotton processing speed has improved significantly in recent years, and the total processing volume narrowed rapidly last year.

With the development of new flower harvest, the flower production volume of this year's cotton mill is relatively small. The expected reduction in production is gradually strengthened, and the purchase price of seed cotton has also increased continuously. The purchase price of seed cotton rose from 4.6 yuan / kg to the current 5.3-5.4 yuan / kg at the beginning of cotton harvest. In some areas, such as Luntai County, it even reached 5.7-5.8 yuan / kg. Hand picked cotton also rose to 6.1-6.2 yuan / kg from the initial stage of 5.6 yuan / kg, and the price of lint cotton rose from less than 12000 yuan / ton to 13000 yuan / ton. In addition, under the background of uncertainty in trade negotiations, cotton seed sales are tight, and some enterprises have been oversold. Sales prices have also risen markedly, from 1.6 yuan / kg to more than 1.8 yuan / kg. If seed cotton rises 0.1 yuan / kg, the price of cotton seed will be reduced by 160 yuan / ton, to a certain extent, the cost of lint cotton will be reduced. Therefore, as a whole, the cost of lint cotton is roughly 13000 yuan / ton at present, but because of the low purchasing price of some enterprises, the comprehensive cost may be around 12000-12500 yuan / ton.

The quality is relatively poor, especially the horse value is higher, especially in the early stage, especially after the machine picked cotton has been improved, but the average value is still around 5. Therefore, some enterprises say that some downstream textile enterprises are more interested in the quality and continuity of the products, so they prefer the cotton products with better quality. In recent years, Chen cotton has been moving faster and the price is 12600-13400 yuan / ton. The average price is about 13000 yuan / ton. Therefore, in terms of quality, the cotton in southern Xinjiang is generally covered with water or flat water. The processing enterprises indicate that the price of cotton futures in the southern Xinjiang reaches 13500 yuan / ton, and the profit is guaranteed. At the end of October, the southern Xinjiang cotton survey shows that the cotton in southern Xinjiang is very good.

At the same time, due to the influence of excessive rainfall, the quality of cotton in Northern Xinjiang is relatively normal this year. Therefore, the short-term cotton prices may rebound in support of the Sino US trade negotiations, the expected reduction in production and the policy expectations, but the downstream consumption situation is still a limiting factor for the rebound of cotton prices. At present, the enterprises' selling price at the same price, the pressure of the new varieties of large quantities of listed stocks will also put pressure on cotton prices, and we need to wait for the adjustment of the supply and demand structure of cotton. (special analyst for agricultural futures Net - Wan Xiaoquan)