The Demand Side Is Becoming Increasingly Cautious, So That The Price Will Be Reduced.

Market brief

Zheng cotton pressure drop, bulls reduced significantly, with the arrival of the off-season, poor demand, Zheng cotton still shock down expectations. Spot cotton prices continue to be stable and strong, the Sino US trade relations have been developing well, and the production of new cotton has been cut down. The market is optimistic about the expected output of the cotton market. The upland price of the seed cotton is going up, and the price of the upland cotton continues to rise. However, the enthusiasm of the downstream textile enterprises is still not high. The sales of warehouse linens in the downstream factories are still low, and the sales of the cotton ginning plants are the main ones. A small number of spot transactions are mainly dominated by traders, and the downstream demand continues to be weak.

The price of acrylonitrile is still weak, and the factory has no new information guidelines. The contract price of the mainstream factory in November is 11300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream retail quotation is 10500-10600 yuan / ton, and the small and small offer is slightly higher. The price of the factory is related to the cost line of the factory, the attitude of the intermediate trader is cautious, the expectation of the terminal factory is not optimistic, the manufacturer's bearish mentality is continuous, its enthusiasm for raw material purchase is not high, the spot market of acrylonitrile is limited, and the short-term news of the factory is guided by the new information, and the price of acrylonitrile is expected to remain weak. Acrylic fiber prices remain stable, the market as a whole is not static, terminal demand is expected to turn from strong to light, acrylic market, air atmosphere is obvious, and acrylic fiber factory profit margins are still narrow, factory price stability trader mentality is strong, in short term, raw material acrylonitrile trend is still weak, but mainstream factory early month guidance price continues stable, expect acrylic fiber prices will continue to be stable mainly, pay attention to new information guidelines.

Futures Daily: Despite the obvious decline in cotton consumption in 2019, production and marketing gaps still exist. We estimate roughly 1 tons of cotton consumption in 2019 and 5 million 430 thousand and 600 tons per month from September to September. The total consumption is 7 million 240 thousand and 800 tons per month, which is estimated to be around 7 million tons in October after entering the textile off-season in October. Although the estimated 8 million 50 thousand tons of consumption (2019/2020 forecast value) is significantly different from that of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, the gap between production and sales is still around 1 million 200 thousand tons compared to the 5 million 800 thousand ton production estimate. With the continuous dumping and storage in recent years, the number of China's national reserve cotton has dropped from 10 million 950 thousand tons to 1 million 500 thousand tons. Without considering imports, the surplus cotton reserves are difficult to meet the requirements of guaranteeing the consumption of domestic cotton textile industry in terms of quality and quantity. Therefore, it is imminent to turn into cotton and rebuild reserves.

As at 24 hours in November 5th, Xinjiang processed 1 million 860 thousand and 300 tons, representing a decrease of 4.16% from 1 million 941 thousand tons in the same period last year. Lint processing capacity: 820 enterprises started in the country, totaling 1886739 tons. In Xinjiang, 749 enterprises were started, totaling 1860269 tons. In the mainland, 71 enterprises were started up, with a total processing capacity of 26470 tons. Inspection of lint cotton: a total of 6041870 packages nationwide, totaling 1 million 364 thousand and 871 tons. The total volume of inspection in Xinjiang is 5937406 packages, a total of 1 million 341 thousand and 371 tons, and the inland inspection volume is 104464 packs, a total of 23 thousand and 500 tons. In order to improve the enthusiasm of cotton farmers to sell, enterprises have increased seed cotton purchase price. As of November 6th, the purchase price of hand picked seed cotton in southern Xinjiang was close to 6.20-6.4 yuan / kg (40% lint), and the purchase price of seed picked cotton seed was 5.6-5.75 yuan / kg, according to the current purchase price of hand picked cotton seed and machine picked cotton, and the price of cottonseed was 1.90 yuan / kg. The total cost of picking cotton processing is 13800 yuan / ton (gross weight). The processing cost of machine picked cotton is about 13300 yuan / ton (gross weight), while the market quotation is almost flat or even upside down.

2019 the Hubei Textile Inspection Bureau's net sale of textile and apparel products "you check me" special action started in November 5th. At present, law enforcement officers have completed online online shopping sampling, buying a total of 40 samples. As the second link of the special action, the sampling inspection of the big warehouse under the line has also started. 4 law enforcement officers of the Provincial Bureau of inspection and Quarantine have entered a large number of electronic business platforms.

A few days ago, the Zhejiang textile testing and Research Institute released the "Wang Jiangjing textile industry high quality development report". The report aims at studying and combing the development of textile industry in Zhejiang, Jiaxing, and studying the countermeasures so as to promote a group of textile towns represented by Wang Jiangjing town to go out of a transformation and upgrading road. In the past 2016-2018 years, the R & D investment of Wang Jingjing has increased from 166 million yuan to 254 million yuan in 2018. During the same period, the average annual growth rate of effective inventions granted by textile enterprises in Wang Jiang Jing Town reached 445%, and the annual average growth rate of patent authorization was 30.3%, which greatly promoted the transformation of the old and new kinetic energy in the textile industry.

In November 2nd, the "first prize cup" 2019 China Textile heritage Promotion Ambassador was selected at the third China Textile heritage conference. Bai Jingying, Bi Yueying, Dan Yufang, Deng Zhaoping, Jin Hui, Liu Wei, Ma Mingyuan, She Yanxuan, She Yanxuan, Yao, Yang, and Zhu Cheng Yan have been awarded the honorary title by 12 entrepreneurs, designers, non heritage successors, experts and scholars who made outstanding contributions to the inheritance and development of textile heritage. The event will serve as one of the annual brand activities of the annual conference of China's textile intangible cultural heritage. It will continue to advocate that all sectors of society pay great attention to the protection of textile intangible heritage, and combine the inheritance of intangible cultural heritage with the building of textile power, mobilize and encourage the textile industry and people from all walks of life to actively join the textile heritage conservation business, and promote the inheritance and innovation development of textile heritage. This year's ambassador for textile heritage promotion issued a video declaration of action. He said he would shoulder the responsibility and mission to promote the inheritance and innovation of textile heritage.

In 2019, the national finals of the national textile industry "Niu Pai Cup" textile equipment preservative (filament weaving weaving machine) vocational skills competition was unveiled on October 30th ~11 1 days at "Jiangsu Niu Pao Textile Machinery Co., Ltd.". There are 66 finalists in the textile equipment conservation competition. They are from 5 provinces, namely, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong and Anhui. After two days of intense competition, the competition ended in November 1st. The China Textile Industry Federation awarded the top six players in the national finals of the textile equipment preservation industry "the national textile industry technical experts".

During the Canton Fair, on November 1st afternoon, a forum on key foreign trade enterprises in Changxing County textile industry was held at Yilin Holiday Inn in Guangzhou. City and county leaders, the county's 30 key textile enterprises exhibitors, County Textile Association, warp knitting Association, city and County Bureau of Commerce and textile industry related 8 towns and townships were responsible for attending the meeting. At the forum, representatives from the 14 Canton Fair exhibitors from Changxing County textile industry respectively launched a deep discussion and exchange on the current situation of the development of foreign trade, the major difficulties and problems currently facing the enterprises, the anticipation of the next step, and the opinions and suggestions of the government.

In October 30th, the Zhejiang textile test and Research Institute led the implementation of the Zhejiang provincial standardization strategy major pilot project "textile industry upgrading and standardization pilot project" (referred to as the "pilot project") through the expert group's examination, questioning and discussion with high score acceptance, become the province's "standardization +" effect to promote the upgrading of traditional textile industry. - the transformation and upgrading of the printing and dyeing industry as the breakthrough point, taking Shaoxing Keqiao Binhai dyeing and printing industry park standardization pilot as the core, extending to the chemical fiber and Lanxi cotton textile manufacturing industry, and then extending to the textile and consumer goods industries such as Yuhang home textiles and Tongxiang silk quilt. After two years of pilot practice, through the linkage of four levels of agencies at the national, provincial, municipal and county levels, the 5 standard system framework charts were completed from the four major areas of Park agglomeration, green enterprise, advanced technology and products, energy saving and environmental protection, and 3 national standards, 6 industry standards, 2 local standards and 67 group standards were formulated. According to introduction, "pilot project" is the key link in the textile industry. According to preliminary statistics, the tax revenue per mu in Keqiao printing and dyeing industry increased from 131 thousand and 700 yuan per mu to 200 thousand and 400 yuan per mu; the added value of unit energy consumption increased from 411.52 yuan / ton standard coal to 813.59 yuan / ton standard coal; the proportion of international equipment in printing and dyeing enterprises reached more than 60%, and the popularization rate of CAD technology in key printing and dyeing enterprises reached 100%, and the average bath ratio of dyeing equipment increased from 1:10 to 1:5.

Entering the November, the big business platform has launched the "double 11" promotional activities. In order to further standardize the centralized sales promotion behavior of the network and maintain the order of the network market, the Beijing Market Supervision Authority recently said that it is necessary to detect and stop the illegal price of fictitious original price, the first rise and then fall, and the failure to fulfill the price promise. Conducting administrative guidance to ten key e-commerce platform enterprises such as Jingdong, Tmall, USA, jumei.com, etc., and urging enterprises to standardize the launching of the "double 11" network centralized sales promotion activities, conscientiously fulfill the main responsibility of platform governance, earnestly protect consumers' legitimate rights and interests, and consciously maintain a fair and orderly network market environment and a safe and secure network consumption environment.