Polyester Filament Price Shocks Dropped In 2019, The Lowest In Three Years

Polyester manufacturers understand that the price that is pulled up with the help of sudden information will eventually return to the equilibrium price of the market. Once the event is over, the market will return to its original form.

Polyester manufacturers also know that the price decision factor is one of the most important factors besides money itself. Market supply and demand relationship is the most important factor. Today, the repair of supply and demand relationship in polyester market causes the market changes to slowly ferment. In the low period of industry, the stage and structural surplus of production capacity has come back.

Polyester market is experiencing a trough: prices hit a new low of three years, the total profit significantly reduced.

In 2019, the market price of polyester filament fell off, and the average annual price of polyester filament was three yuan in the past three years, represented by polyester filament POY150D/48F. Compared with the average price of 9560.9 yuan / ton in 2018, the average price dropped 14.48%. Compared with the average price of 8374.81 yuan / ton in 2017, the average price of polyester filament dropped 2.37%.

In 2019, the main market price point appeared in the early November at 6800 yuan / ton, and the market was refreshed since July 3, 2016. The decline in prices and market prices during the year was mainly due to the sharp fall in costs, the decline in terminal apparel growth and overcapacity in the textile sector. The average PTA price of polyester raw materials in 2019 was 5930.55 yuan / ton, 8.15% lower than the 2018 average price. In 2019, the average price of raw material ethylene glycol was 4717.69 yuan / ton, which was 34.8% lower than the average price in 2018.

Specifically, as of November 12th, the price of polyester filament POY150D/48F in 2019 was 6800 yuan / ton, a new low since July 3, 2016. In 2019, the FDY150D/96F price of polyester filament was 6900 yuan / ton, a new low since February 28, 2016, and the DTY150D/48F valley price of polyester filament in 2019 was 8500 yuan / ton, the lowest since the beginning of February 28, 2016.

In the first half of the year, the total profit of polyester industry decreased by 37.7% compared with the same period last year.

National Bureau of statistics data show that: 1~6 months, the main business income of chemical fiber industry 428 billion 700 million yuan, an increase of 7.1% over the same period, the total profit of 13 billion 300 million yuan, a decrease of 23% over the same period last year; the loss of the industry reached 26.52%, an increase of 4.6 percentage points compared with the same period last year, the deficit of loss making enterprises increased by 71.5%, and the profit margin of operating industry was 3.11%, down by 1.22 percentage points from the same period last year.

"Polyester polyester Hing, then chemical fiber industry."

It can not be said that polyester polyester industry plays a decisive role in the entire chemical fiber industry. Polyester polyester production accounts for about 8 of the total output of China's chemical fiber each year, and the largest contribution to the industry's profits. But according to the industry, the total profit of the polyester industry is 5 billion 840 million yuan, a decrease of 37.7% compared with the same period last year. If the supply is increasing and the efficiency of factories is greatly reduced, if the market deteriorates again, the pressure on the market will remain great.

The phased and structural surplus of production capacity: the capacity of polyester filament breaks 40 million tons milestone.

With the expansion of industry profits, polyester production capacity is expanding further. In 2019, the total capacity of polyester filament increased by 2 million 540 thousand tons, compared with the reduction of 560 thousand tons in 2018, and the growth rate dropped by 2.1 percentage points, including 2 million 390 thousand tons of melt direct spinning polyester filament, 150 thousand tons of sliced polyester filament, and China's total capacity of 40 million 510 thousand tons / year, breaking through the 40 million ton mark successfully.

During the year, the new production project of polyester filament is still mainly concentrated in large polyester factories, and the polyester filament varieties are mainly POY, including 1 million 200 thousand tons of Tong Kun group, 560 thousand tons of new Feng Ming group, 250 thousand tons of Hengyi (Jiaxing Yi Peng), 200 thousand tons of Fujian longitude and latitude, and 80 thousand tons of Lixin chemical fiber. Among them, Hengke 100 thousand tons, Shandong Weifang Huabao 100 thousand tons polyester filament and will be put into operation before the end of the year, Hengyi (Yi Kai Haining) 250 thousand tons of polyester filament production capacity is expected to be postponed to 2020.

In the coming 2020, China's polyester filament market supply will continue to expand. According to the survey data, the total production capacity of China's polyester filament in 2020 will total 3 million 290 thousand tons, of which 2 million 600 thousand tons of melt direct spinning, 690 thousand tons of sliced spinning (including industrial yarn), and capacity growth rate of 8.1%, 1.4 percentage points higher than that of 2019 capacity growth.

Judging from the time of operation of the current forecast, the production time in 2020 has been evenly distributed, and the production in the second half of the first half of the year has been relatively dispersed. From the perspective of the new capacity structure, it is still mainly concentrated in the large scale production capacity. In recent years, polyester filament and the whole polyester industry have gradually formed the development trend of the upward extension of the industrial chain. To seize the opportunity of refining and chemical industry and expand the downstream polyester as the main trend of the polyester filament industry, the new production capacity of the polyester filament in 2020 is still concentrated in the top five of the capacity scale of Tong Kun, new Feng Ming, Heng Yi and Sheng Hong.

From the perspective of new production capacity matching products, the other products with relatively high added value, such as ultra-fine, intelligent, and total extinction, are dominant. Meanwhile, due to the surge in the recent years, the new and new polyester filament specifications and varieties are still dominated by POY.

Schedule of China's polyester filament production capacity in 2020

At the same time, the trade situation between China and the United States has changed since the beginning of this year, and the volatility of financial market is fierce.

In the Sino US economic and trade consultations without clear and optimistic results, the recent financial market performance weakened again, and export oriented textile related products futures fell, although the current domestic PTA device overhaul opened, but because of the external market situation is too complex, the capacity expansion is rapid, the PTA decline is weak as raw materials, while at the same time bear the financial risks of the external environment and the pressure of the terminal industry, it is even more unpleasant.

In the short term, the textile industry is bad for the formation of polyester industry chain from the bottom to the top. Although the polyester plant has started a high position, but the terminal weaving Market is not flourishing, the inventory of grey fabric is high, resulting in the poor production and sale of polyester stocks, and these contradictions will be concentrated in the late to the end. To sum up, the current situation of polyester market structure is still serious, and the situation of low demand is not improving. The situation faced by polyester factories is still hard to say.