Fundamentals Continue To Improve, Ethylene Glycol Low Rebound

Fig. 1 price chart of domestic glycol Market

Source: lung Chung

One Supply of enterprises (increase slowly)

Long Zhong information statistics, (cycle 14 -11 November 8th), the average load of ethylene glycol in China is about 67.32%, of which the start-up load of ethylene glycol is about 70.53%, the weekly output is about 95 thousand and 800 tons, the starting load of coal glycol is about 62.77%, and the weekly output is about 60 thousand and 300 tons. The overall supply was increased by about 1 thousand and 300 tons last week.

Two And import supply (decreasing)

Fig. 2 Comparison of domestic and Eastern main port stock and market prices in China

Source: lung Chung

As of November 14th, the port port of East China's ethylene glycol stock was about 429 thousand and 600 tons, down 60 thousand and 400 tons compared with last Thursday. Among them, 245 thousand tons in Zhangjiagang, a decrease of 61 thousand tons, a daily average delivery of some 9300 tons of a mainstream warehouse, 40 thousand tons of Ningbo, a reduction of 8 thousand tons, a 55 thousand and 600 ton increase in Shanghai and Changshu, an increase of 8 thousand and 600 tons in the ring ratio, 59 thousand tons in Taicang, a flat ratio, a daily average delivery of 2500 tons in the mainstream reservoir area, a left right side, Jiangyin 30 thousand tons, a flat ratio.

It is estimated that next week (November 14th -11 20), the port of East China is expected to arrive at 198 thousand tons, of which 50 thousand tons are planned for Zhangjiagang, 38 thousand tons for Taicang wharf, 70 thousand tons for Ningbo, 20 thousand tons for Jiangyin, 20 thousand tons for Shanghai.

Three Downstream demand (just need stability)

Fig. 3 trend chart of polyester operation rate in China

Source: lung Chung

Long Zhong information statistics, (cycle -11 November 8th 14) polyester industry average start up to 87.88%, 0.97% higher than the annulus, the reason for the rise in the operating rate of the industry is that although some pet units in the week are suffering from cash flow losses, more production and overhaul, such as Tiansheng, three rooms and Huaya, but some of the plant installations are restarted, such as Jin Lun, Jinxing and so on. In addition, Dalian Yisheng 350 thousand tons of new PET bottle device is put into operation this week, and the overall supply of polyester has increased slightly over the past week.

Long Zhong information statistics, next week polyester plant many sets of devices exist maintenance expectations, such as far spinning, but there are also 250 thousand tons of Yizheng chemical fiber plant restart expectations, so it is expected next week polyester start or slight decline. But do not rule out other factories to join the inspection and maintenance, production reduction is expected next week, the average polyester start or slight decline, a smaller range.

Conclusion: Last week, because of Hengli trial run, and Rongxin synthetic gas has been successfully proposed, and other news suppressed pessimism spread, the market center of gravity continued to drop to 4495 yuan / ton near. This week, the overall supply of ethylene glycol in China increased by about 1 thousand and 300 tons, and the downstream polyester just needed stability, with a slight increase of 13 thousand and 900 tons (the demand for ethylene glycol increased by 4 thousand and 700 tons). The supply side increased slowly, the port continued to be storehouse, the downstream polyester rigid demand was stable and so on, and the domestic ethylene glycol market rebounded low.

PS1 : The rise is also related to futures, and the 01 contract is approaching. Businesses are worried about squeezing, and some of the bears are out of profits. With the capital coming in, the futures will rise to drive the spot.

PS2 : Trading proposal: Under the strong reality and weak expectation game, the short-term ethylene glycol market is difficult to get out of the unilateral market, and it is suggested that businessmen should not blindly chase up losses.