Reserve Cotton Rotation Policy In The Cotton Market To Show Calm

Last week (November 11-15), the policy of landing cotton in cotton fell on.

Sino US negotiations are underway, new cotton production has basically reached a consensus, the futures market is relatively stable, orders slightly warmer, cotton yarn sales have accelerated, inventory decline, cotton purchasing confidence rise. The sales of processing enterprises in Xinjiang are mainly sold to trading companies by registered warehouse receipts and spot prices. Few cotton mills directly purchase cotton mills. Cotton mills still concentrate on 18 years' resources, stock resources and imported cotton. After the rise of cotton prices, the profit of the acquisition processing enterprises is better, but the cotton price rise has not been effectively delivered to cotton yarn, and the profit of the mill has been reduced. During the week, the cotton price CNCottonB index price was 12973 yuan / ton, the week rose 61 yuan / ton, compared with the Zheng cotton futures CF2001 contract, the spot premium was 47 yuan / ton, narrowed 11 yuan / ton, and the spot water conservancy was registered in the warehouse receipt.

Futures. Last Thursday, after the announcement of the policy of cotton reserve entry, the market calms down. The main contract was closed at 13020 yuan on Friday, 2001 yuan on Friday, and 50 yuan in the week. In January, there was a decrease in the delivery opportunities, and funds began to shift. After the rise in the market, the number of hedging packages increased, and the total sales volume increased by more than 100 thousand. Registered warehouse receipts continued to increase, the total reached 12849, 3996 forecasts, an increase of 1146 over last week. Spot sales difficulties, spot discount futures, is conducive to the registration of warehouse receipts. The purchase and storage is about to be implemented, which can reduce the effective supply in stages, and the price of purchasing and storing the market will have the bottom effect and stabilize the market confidence. The biggest factor affecting the market outlook is the outcome of the Sino US negotiations, and the trend is determined by negotiations. There is no news, then the interval shocks are consolidated.

Us disk: China's purchase and storage had little effect on the external market, and the US disk remained stable. In December, the contract closed at 64.88 cents / pound on Friday, rising 37 points in the week. The Sino US negotiation process has a greater impact on the US market and continues to track progress in trade negotiations and cotton weather.

On the spot. The market is generally warming and confidence is picking up. Orders have also been slightly warmer. Cotton mill procurement has gradually resumed. Spot trading has increased slightly. Traders are still concentrating on resources for 18 years in the mainland, and the main registered warehouse receipts or spot prices are sold to traders. The price quoted in the territory is 13300-13700 yuan / ton, which is close to the 18 years' resources of the inland bank and the freight rate is higher than the mainland price. In the mainland, the fixed price and the spot price resources coexist. When the futures price rises, fixed prices are relatively low, sales are active, futures prices are lower, prices of resources are lower, and prices are much lower. China's 3128B hand picked Xinjiang cotton traded price of 13300-13800 yuan / ton, the machine picked Xinjiang cotton 13300-13600 yuan / ton. Customs clearance India cotton 12900-13500 yuan / ton, Australia cotton 15500-16000 yuan / ton, Brazil cotton 13300-14000 yuan / ton, West Africa cotton 12500-13500 yuan / ton. Import cotton quality price difference is bigger.

Acquisition of new cotton. New cotton picking has reached over 95%, the selling rate is about 92%, and the picking and selling progress is faster than in previous years. Xinjiang cotton processing rate of 52.7%, sales rate of 13.7%. The acquisition is coming to an end, the price is relatively stable, the picking price of hand picked cotton is 5.8-6.5 yuan / kg, the machine picked cotton is 5.2-5.6 yuan / kg, and the price of cottonseed is about 1.8 yuan / kg. Sales progress is slow, pre purchase price is low, sales profit is better than last year. As of November 15th, 879 enterprises in the country reported 2 million 10 thousand tons of public inspection, less than 90 thousand tons, and 440 thousand tons a week. The quality of public inspection cotton has gradually improved, which is still slightly worse than last year.

Operation suggestion. Since the low rally, the post market has not been able to respond positively. After the introduction of the policy, the market is calm. It shows that the market participants are cautious and confident. Zheng cotton CF2001 is facing an effective breakthrough of 13000 yuan / ton, and consumption is still a bottleneck. We will continue to pay attention to the progress of Sino US negotiations and the increase in orders consumption.