Operation Analysis And Forecast Of 1~9 Chemical Fiber Industry In 2019

In 2019 1~9, the economic situation at home and abroad remained complex and severe. Global economic growth slowed down, external uncertainties and uncertainties increased, and domestic economic downward pressure was bigger. The demand side of chemical fiber industry continued to weaken, the contradiction between supply and demand was highlighted, the market price continued to decline, and the industry profit situation declined significantly. The investment in fixed assets was negative year-on-year, and the decline continued to deepen in the first half of the year. However, there are many bright spots in the operation of the industry. China's largest scale refinery and petrochemical integration project has been put into operation at 20 million tons per year. The first 5G company has achieved intelligent upgrading of polyester filament production. Leading enterprises and differentiated subdivision enterprises still maintain strong competitiveness. These are boosting the quality development of the chemical fiber industry.

1. Basic operation of the industry

(1) production

According to the statistics of National Bureau of statistics, the output of chemical fiber in China 1~9 was 44 million 196 thousand and 300 tons, an increase of 12.02% over the same period last year. Among them, polyester and nylon production increased by more than 10%, viscose staple fiber growth rate was 4.37%, slower than the growth rate in 1~6 months.

1~-9 months, China Chemical Fiber Association tracking survey of key enterprises increased 8.4% year-on-year production.

Table 12019 1~9 monthly output of chemical fiber

(two) demand

Domestic and foreign textile terminal demand pressure is not reduced. Since 2019, the growth rate of domestic textile and clothing in China has slowed down significantly compared with that in 2018. According to the National Bureau of statistics, the sales volume of clothing shoes and hats and needle textiles increased by 3.3% over the same period last month, while the growth rate slowed down by 5.6 percentage points over the same period last year, but increased by 0.3 percentage points compared with the first half of 2019. The online retail sales of wearing apparel continued to maintain a two digit growth rate but slowed down from June to 2018. Textile and garment exports continued to maintain negative growth (US dollar) momentum. According to China Customs data, the total export volume of textiles and clothing in China in the first three quarters was 208 billion 620 million US dollars, down 2.3% from the same period last year, and the growth rate slowed by 7 and 0.3 percentage points respectively over the same period last year and the first half of this year. The performance of the terminal market is mediocre, the loom's starting rate is about 70%, and the loom start rate is around 80%. The load index of warp knitting machine, circular knitting machine and lace is significantly lower than that of the same period last year.

In terms of external demand, China's chemical fiber exports reached 3 million 610 thousand tons in 1~9 months, an increase of 8.99% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was 1.21 percentage points higher than that of last year. However, the export volume of polyester staple fiber decreased by 4.68% compared with the same period last year, and exports to the US decreased by 31.97% compared with the same period last year. The United States has been reduced to the third largest export market of China's PET staple fiber.

Table 22019 export of chemical fiber products in 1~9

From the point of view of the export market structure, China's exports of chemical fiber to the United States decreased by 35.74% over the same period last month, and the proportion of total exports of chemical fiber decreased by 3.38 percentage points over the same period in 1~9 months, due to the Sino US trade war. In the same period, the export of chemical fibers in ASEAN and the main countries along the belt has increased significantly, reflecting the adjustment of the layout of the global textile industry. On the whole, China's chemical fiber export market is more dispersed and the US share is less than 5%. Therefore, Sino US trade war has led to a sharp decline in China's export of chemical fiber to the United States, but basically it can be made up by seeking alternative markets.

Table 32019 China's chemical fiber export market in 1~9

(three) market

Since the beginning of this year, the boom of the chemical fiber industry has declined, and the market price has been refreshing for nearly three years. The main reason is that the cost of raw materials has dropped sharply, the growth of terminal demand has declined and some of the links have been overcapacity. At the same time, the price gap between products and raw materials has also shrunk, leading to a sharp contraction in industry profits.

Polyester, as private large-scale refinery projects have been put into operation, PX and PTA's capacity growth is very impressive, resulting in price downward. According to the data of China textile net, the average price of PTA in 2019 was 5941 yuan / ton, which was 7.9% lower than that in 2018. The average price of MEG in 2019 was 4720 yuan / ton, which was 34.8% lower than the average price in 2018; the average price of polyester filament POY150D was 8117 yuan / ton, the average price of polyester filament was 14.6% lower than that of 2018; the average price of polyester staple fiber was 8043 yuan / ton, which was 14.2% lower than the average price in 2018. In terms of viscose fiber, there is an expansion trend in domestic and foreign production capacity. The digestion capacity of terminal demand is affected by the big environment, and the overall follow up rhythm is slowed down.

(four) quality and efficiency

National Bureau of statistics data show that: 1~9 months, the main business income of chemical fiber industry 639 billion 800 million yuan, an increase of 4.04% over the same period, and realized a total profit of 20 billion 200 million yuan, a decrease of 29.1% compared with the same period last year. The industry's deficit reached 24.42%, an increase of 3.95 percentage points compared with the same period last year, and the deficit of loss making enterprises increased by 67.32%. The operation quality of chemical fiber industry is generally stable, but the profit rate of the industry has declined. In 1~9 months, the operating profit margin was 3.16%, down 1.48 percentage points compared with the same period last year.

According to the industry, the total profit of the polyester industry is 10 billion 20 million yuan, a decrease of 38.07% compared with the same period last year, and the nylon industry is 2 billion 430 million yuan, a decrease of 15.79% compared with the same period last year.

Table 42019 1~9 month chemical fiber industry economic benefits

(five) investment

In 2019, the downward pressure on the industry increased, and the growth rate of fixed assets investment in the chemical fiber industry dropped. In 1~9 months, the actual investment decreased by 15.40% compared with the same period last year and last year.

Fig. 32008 changes in fixed assets investment in chemical fiber industry in ~2019

Two, operation forecast of chemical fiber industry

From a macro perspective, China's economic growth dropped significantly in the first three quarters, up 6.4% in the first quarter, 6.2% in the two quarter, and 6% in the three quarter. Since October, the overall macroeconomic data are not as good as expected, which are further pointing to downward pressure on the economy. The latest forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will reduce the world economic growth rate in 2019 to 3%, the lowest level since the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008, indicating that the global economy is in a downward trend.

Looking forward to the whole year, the domestic and international economic situation facing the development of chemical fiber industry is still complex and severe. There are both macroeconomic factors such as slowing global economic growth and changing international trade situation, as well as internal contradictions in the industry. In the future, we still need to pay attention to the progress of Sino US trade frictions. Although the recent negotiations are progressing smoothly, there are still repeated possibilities. Exchange rate fluctuations will also affect the international trade of textile and chemical products. On the positive side, as the downward pressure on the economy increases, the macro policy reverse cycle adjustment is expected to gradually increase, and the market is expected to stabilize under a variety of macroeconomic control measures. The optimization of the industry's own industrial structure and the improvement of its innovation capability will also enhance the ability of the industry to resist risks.

The thirty-eighth phase of the enterprise managers survey shows that enterprises are not optimistic about the fourth quarter operation. Most domestic enterprises are cautious about the four quarter in terms of domestic demand, export, output, profit and the overall operation of the industry, and the lack of market demand is the first concern of enterprises. Sichuan's energy investment and new Feng Ming PTA installations have been put into operation one after another. At the end of the year, the four phase of Hengli and China and Thailand PTA still have a production plan, and the future PTA may have a further low penetration rate. At present, most of the products in polyester, viscose, nylon, spandex and other industrial chains have been at a loss or even a deficit. If crude oil or external news surface is favorable to release, the phased rebound of chemical fiber market will not be ruled out. But on the whole, the fourth quarter has entered the traditional textile off-season. If there is no significant advantage, the chemical fiber industry will continue the current difficult situation. The contradiction between supply and demand is still outstanding. The industry still needs to adjust the load to control risks.