The Competition In The Sticky Short Market Is Intense, With Both Rising And Falling Prices Stabilizing. How To Replenish At The End Of The Year?

Overview of market

Zheng Mian rebounded from the oversold, with the main force moving its position significantly, and the main force's contract position reduction in recent months was obvious, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. In the short term, Zheng Mian maintained a choppy finishing market. The linkage between domestic and foreign cotton futures is weak, the market confidence is declining, the spot cotton price is stable, and the terminal demand is not expected to be strong, which is still the main reason to restrict the rise of cotton prices. At present, the cotton mills have not yet purchased in large quantities, and the purchase and sale of new cotton are dominated by traders. The cotton mills mostly purchase the old cotton from the mainland warehouse, and the turnover of the new cotton market is slow. The inventory pressure of Xinjiang ginning plants is high, and the mainland ginning plants operate cautiously, While processing and selling, the inventory runs at a low level, but the cost of local cotton is high, the price is difficult to rise, and the ginning plant is not profitable enough. Near the end of the year, terminal demand began to weaken, and the prospect of downstream demand was still not optimistic. Cotton mills had limited replenishment of raw materials, and the cotton spot market resources were sufficient. The supply and demand sides continued to play games. In the absence of a positive boost in the market, it was expected that the trend of spot cotton prices would be stable, focusing on the latest progress of the China US peace talks.

Acrylonitrile prices remain weak, and the offer of mainstream factories continues to decline. The mainstream offer of spot retail refers to 10300-10500 yuan/ton, and the low point is close to the 10000 yuan mark. The middlemen do not change their thinking of trading with the market, and the market transaction focus is weak and volatile. The market's expectation of manufacturers' monthly settlement price is obvious, and there is no good support for short-term demand. It is expected that acrylonitrile prices will remain weak and volatile, Pay attention to the factory monthly settlement information guidance. The price of acrylic staple fiber remains stable. Recently, the price of raw material acrylonitrile continues to be weak and fluctuate, and the support of acrylic fiber cost is weakened. However, the demand for acrylic fiber is poor. The plant load of the factory remains relatively low. The manufacturer's operating attitude is relatively stable, and there is no price reduction plan. The downstream maintains a small amount of just needed replenishment. It is expected that the price of short-term acrylic fiber will remain stable.

According to the data released by China Cotton Notary and Inspection Network, as of 24:00 on November 19, 2019, there were 886 cotton processing enterprises processing cotton and conducting notarial inspection in 2019 cotton year according to the requirements of the cotton quality inspection system reform plan, with the inspection volume reaching 10048750 bales and 2269757 tons. Including: Xinjiang: 780 processing enterprises, 9838136 packages, 2222421 tons. Mainland: 106 processing enterprises, 210614 packages, 47336 tons.

Last week (November 11-17), the harvest of new cotton was almost over. As of November 18, the harvest progress of the whole Xinjiang was 98.6%, and the sales progress was 95.5%. Most of the machine picked cotton harvest in northern Xinjiang had ended, and the hand picked cotton harvest in southern Xinjiang was expected to end in the first ten days of December. The purchase price of machine picked cotton rose slightly to 4.6-5.9 yuan/kg (the initial purchase price was 4.4-5.6 yuan/kg), and that of hand picked cotton rose to 5.3-6.1 yuan/kg (the initial purchase price was 5.0-6.0 yuan/kg). After the middle of the year, some cotton regions will hold the next year's variety ordering meeting, and this year's seed market presents a "messy" situation.

Recently, the regulatory warehouses in Kuitun, Akesu and other places reported that the enthusiasm of cotton processing enterprises for applying for warehousing and public inspection has slowed down, and the pressure on daily arrangement of warehousing has been reduced (non Zheng cotton delivery warehouse), especially the number of medium and high quality lint cotton has decreased, and low-quality Xinjiang cotton continues to be orderly arranged for warehousing and public inspection. Several ginning plants in southern Xinjiang said that, considering that the quality of seed cotton in Xinjiang continued to decline after late November, the proportion of medium and high quality lint cotton was not high, so the processing, warehousing (stored in the ginning plant) and public inspection of medium and high quality cotton were slowed down, waiting for the release of the rules for the implementation of rotation and participating in the bidding for storage. From the survey, since the middle of November, the number of Xinjiang cotton road transportation has continued to decline, especially in Urumqi, Kuitun and other regulatory warehouses in northern Xinjiang, where the shipment of machine picked cotton has decreased significantly year on year. The inquiry and transaction of cotton lint in southern Xinjiang slowed down significantly compared with that in October, and the lint trade has not yet been effectively started. In addition, some ginning plants are reluctant to sell high-quality lint or blindly increase their quotations, which led to the suspension or suspension of spot purchase by traders and textile mills.

On November 20, according to the information on the website of the Securities Regulatory Commission, Shandong Securities Regulatory Bureau issued a decision on issuing a warning letter to Shandong Jinmao Textile Chemical Group Co., Ltd. and Xu Pengming. Upon investigation, Shandong Jinmao Textile did not fully disclose its related party relationship in the relevant bond prospectus and the 2016 Annual Report of Corporate Bonds of Shandong Jinmao Textile Chemical Group Co., Ltd. The above behavior violates the provisions of Article 4 of the Administrative Measures for the Issuance and Trading of Corporate Bonds. As the chairman of Shandong Jinmao Textile, Xu Pengming failed to be honest, trustworthy, diligent and responsible, and was mainly responsible for the above violations, in violation of Article 5 of the Administrative Measures for Corporate Bond Issuance and Trading. According to the provisions of Article 58 of the Administrative Measures for the Issuance and Trading of Corporate Bonds, Shandong Securities Regulatory Bureau decided to take administrative supervision measures to issue warning letters to Shandong Jinmao Textile and Xu Pengming.

Recently, two new technologies, "A Kind of Power Saving Control Device for Flower Cleaning Dust Filter" (inventor Hengxin Company Zhang Hui) and "A Kind of Continuous Yarn Heating Treatment Equipment" (inventor Hengxin Company Xue Jianchang, Ma Yuchen, etc.), declared by the enterprise organization of Changshan Textile Group, were granted utility model patents and certificates by the State Intellectual Property Office; The project "A Kind of Twisting Chamber for Winding Machine" (the inventors are Wei Beibei and Meng Shengli of Hengxin Company) has obtained the invention patent and certificate authorized by the State Intellectual Property Office. A kind of power saving control device for the flower cleaning dust filter The patented technology is used to control the operating state of the dust filtering unit of the flower cleaning machine, which can avoid the waste of electric energy; The patent technology of "A Kind of Continuous Heating Treatment Equipment for Yarns" is a kind of equipment and processing method for continuous heating treatment of yarns, especially for the equipment and processing method for heat treatment of yarns containing thermoplastic fibers. These two patents belong to the field of textile technology. A Twisting Chamber for Winding Machine mainly relates to the splicing device of textile equipment, which can be applied to important parts of automatic winding in textile enterprises.

On November 19, the Jiangsu Provincial Market Supervision Administration released the Notice of Jiangsu Provincial Market Supervision Administration on the Supervision and Spot Check of the Third Batch of Provincial Consumption Quality in 2019 on its website. It was reported that in the third quarter of 2019, Jiangsu Market Supervision Bureau organized a random inspection on the quality of daily use and textiles, and 540 batches of military training clothes, student clothes, student apartment bedding, and school supplies (exercise books) were inspected, 506 batches were qualified, with a qualification rate of 93.7%. The unqualified items in the spot check include fiber content, color fastness to rubbing, rope safety, rope requirements, pH value and other five indicators.

India Cotton Corporation (CCI) recently announced its 2019/20 MSP acquisition in Maharashtra from November 20. It is understood that after the news that CCI is about to start its acquisition was reported by the media, the market volume of Indian cotton fell to the freezing point. At present, the price of new cotton with high moisture content in India is 3500-4500 rupees/hundredweight. This year, Indian cotton farmers expect the price to be 5450-5500 rupees per kilowatt. At present, the price in the high-grade market is only 5100 rupees per kilowatt. According to CCI, the MSP price this year is 5450-5550 rupees/public hundredweight, and the market price in many regions is lower than this level. At the beginning of this year, the market volume of new cotton will increase significantly in the later period. As the rainfall stops, the average grade of new cotton is expected to gradually increase. According to the statistics of CCI, up to now, the market volume of Indian new cotton is close to 2.5 million bales, and the MSP purchase volume is about 40000 bales. In the same period last year, the purchase volume was only 2000 bales, with a total of 1.07 million bales. The Indian Cotton Association predicted that India's cotton output in 2019/20 would be 35.45 million bales, an increase of 4.25 million bales or 13.62% year on year.

An official of the Indian government said on Tuesday that the Ministry of Textiles had convened a stakeholders' meeting to seek advice on new textile policies, including the need to create an umbrella brand for the country's textile sector in the global market. He said that the meeting was scheduled to be held by the trade adviser of the Ministry on Wednesday, and would discuss the quality mark of the Ministry. The official said that the meeting notice required to discuss the brand positioning needs of Indian textiles and clothing in the global market by establishing an umbrella brand of textiles and introducing quality marks. The Department will also seek feedback to improve the functions of several key aspects of the Department, which is an industry that creates high employment opportunities. He said that the meeting would discuss manufacturing, exports, policy frameworks and best practices in China, Vietnam, Bangladesh and Turkey. The meeting will also discuss the threats posed by free trade agreements. He added that building quality and ecosystems were among the agenda of the meeting.