PTA'S Long Decline Is Not Over Yet.

First, the traditional peak season, after the device overhaul, even the Sino US economic and trade consultations have achieved some results, and the external environment has been warmed up. In recent months, it will undoubtedly become the key node to reverse the declining trend of the whole year.

However, the reality is always cruel, PTA from the July 3rd high point 5668 yuan / ton all the way down to the lowest point 4648 yuan / ton. In spite of the lack of uplink and downhill caution, time eventually delivered the steering wheel to the short end.

Yesterday, due to the decline in US crude oil inventories and the stimulation of the new crude oil market and the overhaul of the pre maintenance devices, PTA finally ushered in a rare wave band increase. Although the PTA load gap caused by short term maintenance can bring the market rebound, at this stage, we think that doing more is meaningless.

The upstream industry is expanding and the demand for terminal has been depressed. Under such circumstances, relying on the unpredictable crude oil market and individual device overhaul for one or two weeks will not have much impact on market expectations. And at the end of 2019, PTA prices continue to hit a new low this year. The reason for the downward shift of PTA's price center is very obvious. The main reason is that a large number of new PTA installations, especially large scale refinery supporting PX new installations, have been put into operation continuously during the year.

PTA new start-up plant starts and plans to put into production, and the supply pattern has changed from tight balance to surplus.

Up to now, the domestic PTA capacity has increased to 51 million 705 thousand tons. Yisheng, Hengli and Fuhai create three big enterprises, which account for over 52% of the existing capacity. The domestic PTA industry has completed the reversal of the leading power from state-owned enterprises to private enterprises, and the market has gone from oversupply to oversupply. It is heard that at the end of 2019, there will still be 4 million 800 thousand tons (2 million 500 thousand tons of Hengli, 1 million 200 thousand tons of China and Thailand, 1 million 100 thousand tons of new Feng Ming). The new PTA will reach 56 million 505 thousand tons by the end of 2019.

1. Sichuan PTA chemical plant will be put into operation at the end of May 2019.

In May 22nd, Sichuan's PTA chemical project was officially put into operation. This is a major event in the industrial sector of our city. It will lay a solid foundation for our city to build 100 billion industrial clusters of oil and gas chemical industry. The project is located in the Nanchong economic development zone. It is the second large-scale PTA project installation in the western region, with a total investment of about 4 billion 500 million yuan, covering an area of about 960 mu, and the output of PTA can reach 1 million tons, with an annual output value of about 6 billion yuan.

2, new wind blowing Dushan energy PTA phase 2 million 200 thousand tons project smoothly put into operation

In October 30th, 5 points and 08 minutes, the Dushan energy PTA phase I device was put into operation, and the new Feng Ming group took a new step in the integration of industrial chain. Dushan energy is the first project to extend upstream to new Feng Ming. It has overcome all kinds of difficulties from scratch and has gone through the stage of equipment installation, single machine debugging, linkage debugging and so on. Finally, the first phase of the project starts today.

3, China and Thailand Petrochemical 1 million 200 thousand tons PTA project planned trial run.

In August 23, 2019, the construction of Xinjiang Korla Zhongtai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. 1 million 200 thousand tons PTA project was progressing smoothly. The project is speeding up. It is expected that the unit will be tested in September 30th, and commissioning will be carried out around December 20th.

4. Hengli Petrochemical set up a 2 million 500 thousand ton PTA plant, which is scheduled to go into operation in late 2019.

Hengli Petrochemical set up a 2 million 500 thousand ton PTA plant which was planned to be put into the market in late 2019. Another 2 million 500 thousand ton PTA plant was planned to be put into the market in 2020.

5. Rongsheng Petrochemical: Announcement on investment and construction of PTA project with an annual output of 6 million tons.

In September 18, 2019, Rongsheng Petrochemical announced a plan for the construction of PTA project with an annual output of 6 million tons. In order to further enhance the company's perfect industrial chain advantage and enhance its market competitiveness, expand the market scale of the company's products and reduce the unit cost of products, Zhejiang Yisheng new material Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Rongsheng Formosa Petrochemical Co, intends to invest in the construction of the "annual output of 6 million tons PTA project". The project is implemented in two phases, and the total investment of the project is estimated to be 6 billion 731 million yuan.

6, the total investment is nearly 60 billion! The Jiu Tai Group will set up a 2 million 400 thousand ton / year PTA installation in Inner Mongolia.

According to the official website of Jiu Tai Group on September 6th, Inner Mongolia Jiu Tai New Material Co., Ltd. is planning to build Inner Mongolia Polytech new materials Co., Ltd. in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Togtoh Industrial Park, Hohhot. It can be found from the announcement that the total investment of the project is nearly 60 billion, and 2 million 400 thousand tons / year PTA and 600 thousand tons / year polystyrene will be set up.

Polyester production capacity can not conceal the risk of PTA overcapacity, and the long decline of PTA is far from over.

From the profit distribution of polyester industry, the PTA processing fee has dropped to less than 500 yuan / ton. The PX processing of some devices has entered the loss interval and is near the lowest in history. It is not ruled out that under the pessimistic expectations, the processing fee of PX and PTA will be low again.

On the other hand, under the condition of low price of PTA and MEG, polyester production capacity also has the capacity expansion plan in 2020. According to statistics, the new production capacity of polyester is expected to reach 5 million 150 thousand tons in 2020, and the demand for PTA will be increased by about 4 million 300 thousand tons, far less than the PTA capacity of 15 million 300 thousand tons planned for 2020.

The downward trend of cost and processing fee will lead to a more difficult reversal of the PTA price center. Under the large expansion cycle, the long decline of PTA is far from over. (source: Jin Lian Chuang chemical, information)