Survey Of China'S Textile And Apparel Foreign Trade In The First Three Quarters

In November 19th, the round table of Chinese and American entrepreneurs was held in Beijing. There were more than 70 representatives from all circles in China and the United States. The participants agreed that China and the United States still have broad cooperation space in the economic and trade field, and the two sides should promote stable development of bilateral economic and trade relations and jointly safeguard the fundamental well-being of the two peoples. Sino US trade relations have great impact on China's trade. So what's the development trend of China's textile and clothing trade this year?

In September 2019, China's textile and clothing trade volume was 26 billion 560 million US dollars, down 7.9%, of which exports were US $24 billion 520 million, down 7.6%, imports 2 billion 40 million US dollars, down 10.6%, the trade surplus of US $22 billion 480 million, down 7.3%. In 2019 1~9, China's textile and clothing trade volume was US $220 billion 530 million, down 3.2% compared with the same period last year. Of which, exports amounted to 202 billion US dollars, down by 2.8%; imports of US $18 billion 520 million, down 6.8%, and the cumulative trade surplus of US $183 billion 480 million, down 2.4%. Presenting the following characteristics:

First, the cumulative export decline in the first three quarters of the year.

In September, the impact of the United States on the total tariff increase on textile and clothing products began to show. The appearance of the monthly export growth and decline in the first 8 months was broken. In September, both the renminbi and the US dollar continued the downward trend in August.

While exports are blocked, the downward trend of imports is even more prominent. Imports fell for 5 consecutive months in 5~9 months, and the two digit decline occurred in 8~9 months. In the first three quarters, the total import decreased by 6.8%, and the rate of decline exceeded that of exports.

Since September 1st, the United States has begun to impose a 15% tariff on my $300 billion commodity (Listing 4), which includes most of the clothing and household textiles. In September, my exports to the United States decreased, of which clothing and household textiles decreased by 21.8% and 8.5% respectively, and the total exports to the United States decreased by 20.1%, which caused a 4 percentage point drag on global exports. Part 3 excludes products, but the export volume is small, which is difficult to form effective support for exports.

By the end of October, the United States had excluded 12 of the products of the yarn and fabric that were related to my $200 billion product (Listing 3). According to the US import statistics, in the month of 1~9, the United States imported the 12 tariff products from China to a total of US $188 million, accounting for only 0.5% of the total imports of China's textile and apparel in the same period.

Two, the proportion of general trade mode has increased, and private enterprises' export to the US has maintained growth.

In the first three quarters, the cumulative export volume of general trade rose to 81%, which further promoted the leading role of general trade in exports. General trade exports fell by only 1%, which is better than the same period of processing trade (14.8% decline) and small border trade (down 14%).

Private enterprises, as the backbone, form strong support for exports. In 1~9 months, the export volume of private enterprises decreased by only 0.8%, while the number of export enterprises maintained a 7% growth, of which exports to the US increased by 0.1%, and the number of export enterprises increased by 3%, far exceeding the performance of state-owned enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises.

Three, all exports to the traditional market have declined, and the market is accelerating to diversify.

In September, exports to the EU continued to decline, the decline to 16%, and 2.8 percentage points to the overall decline in exports. In 1~9 months, exports to the EU totaled 36 billion 120 million US dollars, down 5.6%, the most in the key markets. Among them, clothing decreased by 7.3%, and the total export volume of needle woven garments of large categories decreased by 4.6%, and the export unit price dropped by 3.9%.

Britain's export process has been delayed for many times, and my export uncertainty has increased. Exports to the UK dropped by 8.5% in the first three quarters.

According to the EU customs statistics, in 2019 1~8 months, the European Union imported $91 billion 970 million from the global textile and apparel products, down 1.2%, and imports from China 29 billion 300 million US dollars, down 1.6%. Imports from ASEAN and Bangladesh increased by 3% and 3.9% respectively. The share of Chinese products in the EU market is 31.9%, down 0.1 percentage points from the same period in 2018.

Since September 1st, 15% tariffs have been imposed on exports of garments and home textiles to the United States, and exports to the US for 4 billion 70 million dollars in the month, down 20%. The total yarn fabric decreased by nearly 30%, the export of needle woven garments decreased by 19%, and the export average price dropped by 5.5%.

In 1~9 months, I exported $35 billion 400 million to the US, which declined by 4.4%, of which 6.1% declined in textiles, 3.8% in clothing and 4.3% in domestic textiles.

In the month of 2019 1~9, the United States imported $94 billion 450 million of textiles and clothing from the world, an increase of 3.1%, of which $31 billion 800 million was imported from China, a decrease of 2.6%. Imports from ASEAN, India and Bangladesh increased by 9.4%, 5.6% and 9.1% respectively. The proportion of Chinese products in the US market is 33.7%, down 2.1 percentage points from the same period in 2018.

After 3 consecutive months of growth, exports to ASEAN declined again in September. The month dropped by 9.6%, of which textiles and clothing decreased by 8.2% and 13.7% respectively. 1~9 total exports to ASEAN amounted to $27 billion 850 million in the month of 1~9, a slight decrease of 0.3%, of which 3% and 1.7% of the major categories of yarn and fabric respectively, and the export of needle woven garments decreased by 8%.

The Japanese market has shown signs of stabilization in recent days. In September, although exports to Japan fell year by year, the ring rose third months in a row, and exports to US $2 billion 160 million in the same month, the highest monthly export volume in the year. 1~9 cumulative exports to Japan fell by 5.2%, slightly better than the European Union in the traditional market. Exports of textiles and clothing decreased by 2% and 6% respectively. The export volume of needle woven garments of large categories decreased by 7.4%, and the export average price increased by 1.8%.

According to Japanese customs statistics, imports and exports of textiles and clothing in Japan in 2019 1~9 were 29 billion US dollars, a slight increase of 0.2%, of which 16 billion 50 million US dollars were imported from China, 4.3%, and 7% from ASEAN. The proportion of China's product market dropped to 55.4%, down 2.6 percentage points from the same period in 2018.

While obstructing the export of traditional markets, the countries along the belt have become the main driving force of our export. In September, global exports declined, but exports to the "one belt and one way" country increased by 4%. In the first three quarters, the total export to the "one belt and one way" country was US $70 billion 670 million, a slight decrease of 0.1%, basically unchanged. Central Asia, Western Asia and South Asia are major growth areas. The steady and orderly development of bilateral trade has increased the proportion of "one belt and one road" to our exports to 35%, and the market position has gradually increased.

Four, exports of textile and clothing have been reduced and chemical fiber products have maintained a slight increase.

In September, exports of textiles and clothing decreased by 7.7% and 7.5% respectively. Exports of major categories of yarn, fabrics, finished products, needle woven garments and home textiles all declined. In 1~9 months, textiles and clothing decreased by 0.06% and 4.9% respectively. The export of cotton, silk and wool products (including yarn, fabric and clothing) has been cut down by raw materials, especially the silk products have dropped by 50%. Only chemical fiber products maintained a weak growth of 0.4%.

Five, the total exports of Zhejiang and Fujian maintained growth, and Hunan grew rapidly.

In September, exports from the top five provinces and cities all declined, except for Fujian, which dropped by more than or close to 10%. In 1~9 months, the growth rate of Zhejiang and Fujian in the top five provinces and cities was 0.5% and 4.7% respectively. Central Hunan, Hubei, Anhui and other provinces achieved rapid growth, especially in Hunan, where export growth exceeded 50% in seven consecutive months, with an overall increase of 76%.

Six is the continuous and substantial decline in textile imports.

In September, imports of textiles and clothing continued to decline, with textiles falling by 20%, falling for two consecutive months in fifth months, and falling by more than 20% in second consecutive months. Garment imports resumed 7.6% growth.

In 1~9 months, the total import of textiles decreased by 13.1%, of which yarn, fabric and finished goods decreased by 15.2, 14.3% and 6.7% respectively. The total imports of clothing increased by 7.2%, of which the import and export prices of needles and woven garments increased by 6% and 4.1% respectively.

Seven, cotton imports continue to be substantially reduced, and domestic and foreign cotton prices are approaching.

Cotton imports continued to plummet in September, and imports reached a new low in the year. Only 83 thousand tons of cotton were imported during the month, down 38.5% and 9.8% respectively. 1~9 total imports of 1 million 519 thousand tons, an increase of 36.2%. The average import price was 1970 US dollars / ton, down 2.2%. Among them, 309 thousand tons from the United States, down 34.9%, fell to Brazil and Australia.

According to the monthly report of China Cotton Association, in September, most of the cotton in the country was in bloom. Affected by adverse weather, Xinjiang cotton was slow growing, picking and selling slowly. Last year, because of low cotton prices, the enthusiasm of picking and selling in the mainland was not high. The processing enterprises are cautious in entering the market, and the overall purchasing volume is small. The total output of cotton is expected to be 5 million 905 thousand and 700 tons, down 185 thousand tons compared with the previous period, down 3.35% from the same period last year.

The trade friction between China and the United States has eased. Meanwhile, the textile industry has entered the traditional peak season, and the demand for the enterprises has improved relatively. At the end of the month, the national cotton business inventories declined and the gap narrowed. At the end of the month, China's cotton price index (CC Index3128B) was 12608 yuan / ton, down 377 yuan from the end of last month, a decrease of 705 yuan, a monthly average price of 12962 yuan / ton, a decrease of 572 yuan, a decrease of 3351 yuan compared with the same period last year. International cotton prices rose slightly. At the end of the month, the price of both inside and outside cotton approached. The price index of China's cotton imports FC Index M is 71.25 cents / pound, down 0.79 cents / pound. The end of the month is 72.31 cents / pound, up from 1.13 cents / pound at the end of the first month, and 12561 yuan / ton below 1% tariff, which is only below 47 yuan / ton of domestic stock in the same period, narrowing 848 yuan / ton at the end of the previous month.