Cost Side Bottom, PTA Rebound Power Enhanced! Will The Market Turn For The Better At The End Of The Year?

Due to lower processing costs and cost side support, PTA will rebound in the near future. But considering the pattern of oversupply, it is expected that the rebound time and amplitude of PTA will be limited.

Last week, PTA futures rebounded on the rise of international crude oil prices. Technically, the price of PTA futures contract fell below 4950 yuan / ton after strong support, but it did not fall below the support of 4650 yuan / ton in the past 3 and a half years. The recent price or inspection of 4950 yuan / ton pressure level was 2001.

Processing fees are low.

Domestic demand for textile products has not been performing well this year. Because the market uncertainty is higher than in previous years, most of the terminal textile enterprises are stocked according to orders, and their willingness to hoard goods is not strong. Because the raw materials of terminal procurement are not active, the demand for chemical fiber has been greatly affected, which makes the consumption of PTA weak. According to statistics, as of November 21st, the average annual PTA load was 83.73%, an increase of 0.79 percentage points from the average level last year. Due to the high supply of PTA production enterprises, and the 4 phase of Sichuan Shengda, Xinfeng Ming, Hengli, and Zhongtai chemical plant put into operation, the market supply pressure is increasing. Under the effect of oversupply, PTA futures prices continued to decline.

However, with the continuous decline of PTA prices, the operation of PTA production enterprises is also deteriorating. At present, the processing fee of domestic PTA industry has dropped to 500 yuan / ton low, and the industry average loss is 60 yuan / ton. Under such circumstances, the enthusiasm of PTA enterprises has declined.

The role of cost support

At present, the PTA processing fee is at a low level, and the supporting role of cost for PTA will gradually appear. Under the premise that the cost center of gravity does not move down, the price of PTA will be relatively lower and the downlink space will be smaller. From the cost point of view, as OPEC will hold Ministerial Conference in early December, the market expects that OPEC will introduce more intensive production reduction policies, coupled with continued decline in us active drilling numbers, less stock growth than expected, and heating oil consumption into peak season, and crude oil prices will remain relatively strong.

Considering the low processing cost and relatively stable cost, PTA's disk price has rebounded to repair the current low processing fee.

Accelerating the integration of private refining and chemical industry

1, Hainan Yisheng PTA two phase and many other projects in Hainan Yangpu contract.

In November 18th, Hainan Yisheng PTA two phase project, carbon five carbon nine project, 600 thousand tons of methanol carbon four comprehensive utilization project, Shaanxi science and technology 10 thousand ton air forming dust free paper project, Shaanxi Tianyuan 15 thousand ton intelligent remanufacturing project, Yangpu Science Park cooperation development project and Yangpu electric network development strategic cooperation agreement.
Among them, Hainan Yisheng PTA two phase project is a key node project in the petrochemical industry, with a total investment of 4 billion 500 million yuan and an output value of about 16 billion yuan. The carbon five carbon nine project is an ethylene downstream industry project, with a total investment of 1 billion 216 million yuan, construction of 80 thousand tons of carbon five separation, 60 thousand tons of carbon nine separation and other devices. The comprehensive utilization project of 600 thousand tons of methanol and carbon four is the downstream industry of ethylene, with a total investment of 606 million yuan, and 450 thousand tons of methanol to propylene and 150 thousand tons gas separation unit.

2, Guangxi Tong Kun petrochemical Qinzhou will build 2 million 800 thousand tons / year of para xylene and 600 thousand tons / year styrene and other devices!

Recently, Guangxi Tong Kun Petrochemical 2 million 800 thousand ton / year aromatics project social stability risk analysis public participation announcement and 600 thousand tons / year crude cracking gas preparation styrene project environmental impact assessment information for the first time publicity. The main contents of the two announcement are as follows:

2 million 800 thousand tons / year aromatics project in Guangxi Tong Kun Petrochemical Company

The main projects are: 3 million tons / year residue hydrotreating unit (including fuel oil pretreatment), 5 million 200 thousand ton / year hydrocracking unit, 700 thousand ton / year liquefied gas separation plant, 4 million 200 thousand ton / year continuous reforming unit (including 1 million tons / year naphtha hydrogenation), 2 million 800 thousand ton / year aromatics combination unit, 250 thousand cubic / hour PSA plant, 250 thousand cubic / hour hydrogen production unit, 3 sets of 100 thousand ton / year sulfur recovery unit and other main facilities, as well as auxiliary facilities such as circulating water field, water purification station, 220kV substation, raw material product tank farm and so on. The project takes fuel oil and naphtha as raw materials. The target product of this project is 2 million 800 thousand tons / year para xylene, by-product benzene, light naphtha, liquefied petroleum gas and sulfur.

At present, the feasibility study report of this project has been completed, and the evaluation, EIA and stable evaluation report is being worked out. After the completion of the above report, it is reported to the NDRC for approval.

Project outline: the project will invest 2 billion 98 million 40 thousand yuan, mainly build 450 thousand tons / young hydrocarbon crude cracking gas unit, 650 thousand ton / year ethylbenzene unit and 600 thousand ton / year styrene unit and other main facilities, as well as auxiliary facilities such as circulating water field, product tank farm and so on.

The market is relatively light.

In the next 2 to 3 years, there will be a large number of large-scale refinery plants put into operation in China, and PTA production capacity will enter a new period of rapid growth. At the same time, the demand for overdraft in early stage is still not optimistic. Judging from the market trading situation, short staple and bottle piece transactions are very sluggish, taking into account the winter clothing consumption stock market has ended, PTA demand is inevitable.

Based on the above analysis, PTA prices continue to decline, resulting in continuous compression of processing fees, and at the same time, because the cost side does not have the possibility of a sharp fall, so the price of PTA is limited further.