The Cost Side Gradually Strengthens The Price Of PET Staple Is Expected To Rise.

According to the price data of business associations, the average price of 1.4D*38mm polyester staple domestic market was 6860 yuan / ton as of November 25th, down 5.04%, or 364 yuan / ton, down 26.92%, or 2526 yuan / ton. Dachang quotes concentrated on 6800-7000 yuan / ton, the actual transaction discount of 200-400 yuan / ton.

In the past week, the fluctuation of oil prices is very large. Combined with the current situation, it is the result of multiple factors of macro economy, geopolitics and supply and demand. First of all, the most direct driving force for pushing up oil prices is the IPO plan of Saudi Amy. Oil price is a key factor for Saudi Amy to raise funds. They do not want oil prices to fall and want to bring oil prices to a favorable position. So even Kyoto said it would cooperate with Saudi Arabia to maintain the balance of the original oil market. OPEC has been stepping up efforts to reduce production. In the first half of 2019, OPEC's oil producing countries had an average reduction rate of 125% and overfulfilled the production reduction task. After that, the rate of reduction was 130%-200% every month. In general, OPEC+ has been carrying out the task of reducing production, slowing down the short-term pressure of supply, but it is far from enough for the crude oil market in the long run.

Today, PTA's main contract rose 16, or 0.33%, higher than the previous trading day, and the price climbed to 4808. The supply side of Yisheng Hainan 2 million tons plant is scheduled to stop on November 18th -24, and Jiaxing Petrochemical 1 million 500 thousand ton plant is scheduled to stop in November 12th. The planned overhaul is 2 weeks. Today, two big factories are restarting the device. The operating rate of the industry is 92%. With the increase of new capacity, the tight supply pattern will gradually ease. The average price of the downstream 32S polyester yarn in Shandong area is 14440 yuan / ton. In the past month, the price of yarn has hardly fluctuated, and the spinning enterprises are still going to keep stock.

To sum up, business analysts believe that upstream crude oil will remain overcapacity for a long time, so Saudi Arabia and OPEC will continue to increase production intensity. Oil prices will remain at a high level. PTA supply side is still in the stage of new capacity production, and the cost side will gradually increase. The downstream yarn is not warm enough, the manufacturer will use it enough, and the stock will be low. It is expected that PET staple will show an upward trend this week.