The Fundamentals Of Space And Ethylene Glycol Market Staged A Wide Concussion.

Since the middle of this month, along with the rigid demand of the short term inventory and the spot market delivery, the whole chemical product block has been rebounded and the price of ethylene glycol has been rising steadily. This week, the market began to be interlaced and reproduced. The role of the futures market plate was obvious. On Tuesday, the plate fell down, and the market became more and more powerful, and the mood of the market stopped rising.

Comparison of domestic and eastern China's main port stock and market prices

Source: lung Chung

At present, the overall fundamentals of the market are intertwined, and the supply terminal port inventory level is delayed parallel with the new production delay.

Since June, wharf stocks have been reduced again and again, and the total stock of the wharf is maintained near 400 thousand tons, close to the lowest value in 17 years. From the comparison chart of price and inventory, we can see that since May this year, the negative correlation coefficient between stock and price has weakened, and there has been a rare situation of stock and price falling. In the 11-12 month, the domestic plant repair scale reached 1 million 750 thousand tons in November, plus the delayed production capacity in November.

device	Capacity (10000 tons)	Planned maintenance time
Xinxiang, Henan	Twenty	Eleven point two seven Start parking, restart to be determined
Far East petrochemical	Forty-five	Twelve 1 -20
Anhui Red Square	Thirty	Twelve Mid month minus 5 maintenance
Anyang, Henan	Twenty	Seven Parking on 20 February - restart to be determined
Qianxi, Guizhou	Thirty	Eleven 8 -12.12
Total capacity	One hundred and seventy-five	--

Source: lung Chung

In the late supply side, in December, the port stock arrived and the total import volume increased steadily, while the domestic output would also have a certain increment: the constant force device was put into operation (the production volume was expected to start in the middle of 12), and the glycol equilibrium data were calculated. In December, the market equilibrium point of inflection appeared near the storage capacity of 50 thousand tons in December.

Source: lung Chung

Demand is concerned, at present, some polyester factories begin to release the year-end maintenance plan. From the current polyester repair plan, it is estimated that the polyester start up in the middle of December is expected to be reduced to 85%. From the maintenance time, it starts to stop in the next 12 months on the -1 month, and the maintenance time is about 1 months, which is also in line with the practice of falling down during the Spring Festival.

On the whole, the weak supply and demand of ethylene glycol in December is the main theme, and action on price can be suppressed. And the market is worried about the overall economic level at the later stage. The current CPI data and other economic data also verify this concern. However, the current low inventory and new production capacity variables limit the space for the short sale of ethylene glycol, and do not exclude the probability of price range shocks before the new market profits are fulfilled.