Downstream Operating Rate Decline At The End Of The Polyester Staple Market Will Turn Weak

Since the middle of November, aggregate cost has been stable and strong. It also has certain support for the polyester staple market. However, in order to take into account the demand side acceptance, the price of PET staple has not risen significantly, and the area of industrial loss has gradually expanded. In the last month of 2019, considering the high cost and weak demand, it is estimated that the price of PET staple will not be substantially adjusted.

Aggregate cost in 2019 showed a downward trend overall, especially with the increase of private refinery and PTA and MEG supply pressure. The price declines significantly during the year. The price of PET staple fiber has also been falling along with raw materials. By mid November, the market price has dropped to a new low in July 2016. Some market participants have asserted that the price of direct spun polyester staple fiber will fall below 6500 yuan / ton during the year. But in the last 1 months, the market price has been supported by the fact that the profit level of all products in the industry chain has been wiped out.

chart 12019 Change trend of annual aggregate cost

Cost, the recent increase in aggregate cost is mainly due to the rise of ethylene glycol. Due to continued low port inventories, spot supply is still tight, short-term prices will remain strong, while downstream polyester factories have announced year-end maintenance, but the actual overhaul time is concentrated in late December, and the operating rate is still high, supporting the raw material market. PTA, though the spot processing section is low, this week Jiangyin Han Bang set up a 2 million 200 thousand ton / year device for a short period of time. It also plays a certain role in supporting the market. But in the late two sets of 3 million 500 thousand tons / year of new production, it is difficult to make the market better.

chart Two The near future PX and PTA Profit comparison chart

Downstream, the operating rate of the cotton mill and grey fabric factory has declined slightly. Some factories began to stop work in late December due to the large inventory of finished products and poor orders. The demand for support was weak, and the resistance of polyester staple fiber market was still larger. Such a strong and weak pattern also makes the polyester staple fiber market in a very awkward position. That is to say, the stock of polyester staple fiber factory is not high at all, the cost support is strong, and the operating rate is above 80%, but the market price is difficult to follow.

chart Three Recent operation rate and stock trend of polyester staple fiber

后期來看，盡管滌綸短纖企業目前庫存不多，現金流虧損也較嚴重，但12月下旬后紗廠及坯布工廠開工率將有明顯下滑，雖然短纖工廠也多提前規劃檢修及減產計劃，但據往年規律來看，紗廠及坯布廠春節期間開工率一本一降到底，但短纖廠開工率多將至60%附近，無論如何都難比擬下游開工率的下滑速度；并且12月下旬PTA尚有恒力及中泰新產能投產，MEG供貨偏緊情況也將伴隨需求的轉弱而逐步緩解，后市預期難以樂觀；為避免春節期間的累庫風險，滌綸短纖工廠只能以積極出貨為主，但伴隨虧損面積的逐步擴大，工廠減停產時間有較大概率提前，價格方面來看，短期受成本支撐或暫時偏強，但12月20日后，市場行情或因需求的轉弱以及原料端供應的增加而再度轉弱。