Looking At The Price Trend Of PTA At The End Of The Year From The Demand Side

2018 for PTA, it is expected that the new production will be bigger at the end of December. In addition to the coming of the Spring Festival of polyester, the PTA of raw materials will not be seen yet. Because the OPEC meeting? International crude oil plant maintenance? The influencing factors must be manifold, but let's see from the demand side only today.

Year to date PTA Ethylene glycol price chart

Unit: Yuan / ton

Source: long crowd data

PTA Affected by the new commissioning of the plant, the overall performance of this year has shown a weak trend. since Ten New Feng Ming Dushan energy phase 1 PTA Since the new plant has been put into operation, PTA Processing area all the way down and down. PTA Regulation and control of plant maintenance PTA Processing fee is maintained at 540-800 element / Between tons, big factories still have meager profits. PTA Market mainstream price closed at Four thousand seven hundred and eighty element / Tons, but Twelve month Six Daily exposure PX Up-regulated effect PTA The processing area shrinks to Four hundred and eighty-three point nine seven element / Tons. End of this month PTA The four phase of Hengli Two hundred and fifty Million tons and Xinjiang Zhongtai One hundred and twenty It is expected that the 10000 ton plant will be put into operation. PTA Supply pattern, before the Spring Festival PTA It must be a weak operation.

List of polyester start-up rates

Source: long crowd data

From the perspective of the polyester industry, the polyester plant has been under construction recently. Hengsheng overhaul, far spinning restart. The impact of new Feng Ming maintenance is slipping to the present. 86.42% 。 But from the above table, we can see that although Twelve The month is expected to be overhauled, but polyester construction is still slightly higher than the same period last year, rising over the same period. Two point nine eight A percentage point. Therefore, from polyester to raw material demand, short-term support is also in the past.

A list of recent maintenance of polyester filament factory

Unit: 10000 tons

Source: lung Chung

As we all know, this year's "Spring Festival" came earlier. Later, the bomb and weaving factories will also be closed for work. Jiangsu and Zhejiang started to decline 68% The news of the Spring Festival production reduction plan for polyester factories is constantly coming out. At present, the cumulative maintenance plan of polyester filament involves production capacity. Six hundred and eighty-nine Ten thousand tons, of which Twelve Monthly cumulative maintenance capacity Two hundred and sixty-five 000 tons, accounting for overhaul affecting total capacity. 38.46% The main reduction is concentrated during the Spring Festival, most of which are resumed after the Spring Festival. From this we can see that Twelve After the month, polyester factories gradually entered the Spring Festival holiday mode, and the demand for raw materials began to weaken.

To sum up, PTA In the short term, the supply is regulated by factory maintenance, and the overall supply of the market is still acceptable. With the implementation of the polyester plant maintenance plan, the demand side of polyester is insufficient, and the market price or pressure will drop if supply is improved. Later, we must focus on the macroeconomic situation and the trend of international crude oil prices.