Property Market "Low-Key Breakthrough": 33 City Second-Hand Housing Prices Fell, Housing Prices Continue To Change Prices.

The end of the year is the end of the real estate market.

In December 16th, the National Bureau of statistics released data on housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities in November, as well as data on real estate investment and sales in 1-11 months. Through these data, the overall picture of the national property market is clear at the end of the year.

In November, the price of 70 cities continued to decline steadily, and the prices of new house prices fell by 21, while those of second-hand house prices dropped to 33. Among them, the "first tier cities increased or the two or three cities rose flat and narrowed" is the main theme. Although cities in Shenzhen and other cities face housing price changes due to policy reasons, they do not hinder the stability of the whole market.

Since the second half of this year, housing companies have launched a price reduction strategy, which is considered to be the reason for price adjustment. By the end of the year, the financial settlement period is approaching, and the impulse of Housing enterprises to "break through" has been increasing. Public information shows that in November this year, the real estate market price change volume phenomenon is still outstanding, which will likely create a new record for the whole year's sales scale.

This year is the most frequent year of the real estate policy. At the end of the year, the local government's "loosening" impulse is even stronger. However, respondents generally believe that with the regulation of regulators, "stability" will still be the main theme of the market.

The central economic work conference pointed out that "we must insist that the house is used to live, not to be used for frying". We should fully implement the long-term management and control mechanism which is stable and effective, stable prices and stable expectations, so as to promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market. This is the second consecutive year of the central economic work conference, which refers to "housing but not speculation".

Beijing's "split" and Shenzhen movement

In November of this year, the price of new houses in 21 of 70 large and medium-sized cities fell, the number has reached a new high since February 2016. Second hand housing, there are 33 cities prices decline, which is the two consecutive month, more than 30 of the second-hand housing prices in urban areas than the decline. Over the past two months, the number of second-hand housing prices is decreasing, and the number of cities is higher than that of rising cities.

On average, in November this year, the price of second-hand housing rose by 0.30% and 0.12% respectively, compared with 70 in October, compared with 0.2 and 0.01 percentage points respectively in October.

The increase in house prices is the main theme of the market in the second half of this year. 58 Zhang Bo, the dean of Anju Real Estate Research Institute, pointed out that although some cities tried to relax regulation in recent years, under the suppression of policies, the market remained stable and downward, and the driving force for supporting housing prices was getting weaker and weaker.

Kong Peng, chief statistician of the city Bureau of the National Bureau of statistics, interpreted the housing price as: "in November, all localities adhered to the position of" housing and non speculation "," one city and one policy ", and implemented the long-term management mechanism of real estate because of the strategy of the city, and did not take the real estate as a means to stimulate the economy in the short term, which ensured the overall stability of the real estate market.

From the urban level, in November this year, the sales price of newly built commercial housing in 4 first tier cities rose by 0.6%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points over that in October, a 0.2% rise in 31 second tier cities, a 0.3 percentage point increase, and 0.5% three cities in 35 three cities.

Second hand housing, first tier cities, second-hand housing sales price rose 0.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points, second tier cities rose 0.1%, or flat; three cities rose 0.3%, or 0.2 percentage points.

Zhang Bo said, "the first tier cities have expanded, and the two or three line cities have been flat and narrowed", reflecting the plate rotation effect, the front line property market has become a hot topic again, and the three line property market is cooling down with the shed change.

It is worth noting that in November, the price of new houses in Beijing rose by 1.7%, ranking third in 70 large and medium-sized cities. Second hand housing prices fell 0.4%, 5 consecutive months of decline.

For this "split" phenomenon, housing prices to the twenty-first Century economic report said that because of the "control of housing prices" work is excellent, recently Beijing in the new housing net sign, "released" some high priced project signing, thereby increasing the average price of new housing. But because it is "random behavior", the initiative did not stimulate the secondary housing market, the current Beijing second-hand housing buyers and sellers expectations are still not high.

In November, the price of second-hand housing in Shenzhen increased by 1.4%, second only to Tangshan in 70 cities. Shanghai Yi Ju Research Institute pointed out that this is because Shenzhen in November 11th adjusted the "luxury tax" policy, the majority of the construction area of less than 144 square meters of houses "removed" luxury list, so as to enjoy tax concessions. This move has stimulated the warming of second-hand housing transactions in Shenzhen and has raised housing prices.

Price change is still the mainstream.

Housing companies are also willing to give up profits, which is also considered as the reason for maintaining price stability. This initiative has also stimulated the warming of market transactions.

Since financing channels have tightened sharply, housing prices have frequently introduced price concessions since the second half of this year. Among them, the "golden nine silver ten" has become the main target of "harvesting".

Take Hengda as an example, after launching the preferential measures covering most parts of the country in August, Hengda achieved a sales scale of 83 billion 100 million in September, creating a single month sales record for domestic housing enterprises. In October, Hengda raised the record to 90 billion 300 million yuan.

Entering the November, although the momentum of sales promotion has declined, "price to volume" is still widespread. Announcements show that in November, Vanke, Hengda, Biguiyuan, and Chong Chong four "first tier" Housing enterprises average selling prices were lower than in October, Longhu, Shi Mao and other ten strong housing prices also appeared in the phenomenon of declining sales prices.

Since the second half of the year, the effect of price change has been obvious. According to the National Bureau of statistics, from July to November this year, the monthly sales area of commercial housing in China continued for 5 consecutive months, higher than that of the same period last year.

It also fills the gap of sales in the first half of the year. In November of this year, the total area of commercial housing sales was 1 billion 489 million square meters, an increase of 0.2% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was 0.1 percentage points faster than before October. This is also the cumulative growth rate of the national commercial housing sales area for two consecutive months. Over the same period, sales of commercial housing in the country were 13 trillion and 900 billion yuan, up 7.3% over the same period last year.

Respondents generally believe that according to the existing rhythm, this year's real estate sales scale is expected to exceed last year, and continue to refresh the historical record. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, the monthly trading heights of each year from 2007 to 2018 were 12 in December.

"The end of December is the most important financial node in a year. Housing companies usually increase sales at the end of the year. First, in order to achieve the sales target, do large-scale, provide support for future financing and support; the two is to transfer business income to the next one to two years, and reserve the achievement for the future. The housing companies said that near the end of the year, housing prices will not be promoted again, but they will still push ahead with sales in a low profile.

From 2016 to 2018, the sales volume of national commercial housing has reached a new high for three consecutive years. In 2018, the area of commercial housing sales was 1 billion 720 million square meters, and the sales volume of commercial housing was close to 15 trillion yuan.

Industry profits will be squeezed.

As sales are heating up, housing companies are relatively well funded. In November of this year, real estate development enterprises reached 16 trillion and 50 billion yuan, up 7% from the previous year, and the growth rate was unchanged from the previous October. Among them, the growth rate of two sources of deposit, advance sale and personal mortgage loans reached two digits, accounting for nearly 50% of the two funds.

Investment, before November, the national real estate development investment 12 trillion and 130 billion yuan, an increase of 10.2% over the same period, the growth rate dropped 0.1 percentage points compared to 1-10 months. Among them, the growth rate of residential investment dropped 0.2 percentage points.

Among them, the land purchase area of Housing enterprises in the former November was 217 million 200 thousand square meters, down 14.2% compared with the same period last year, and the land transaction price was 11960 yuan, a decrease of 13%, but the decline was narrowed.

Shanghai Yi Ju Research Institute pointed out that, at the end of the year, on the one hand, housing enterprises urgently need to complete their goals this year. On the other hand, cities will sell some of the high-quality plots that had previously been filmed. Driven by the supply and demand of the two parties, the high level growth of land purchase funds of Housing enterprises will provide important support for development and investment. The agency expects that the growth rate of real estate development investment will remain above two figures this year.

But the industry generally holds a negative view of whether sales can continue to grow.

In the central economic work conference for two consecutive years, "housing is not speculation", and once again stressed that "three stability" (stable prices, stable prices, stable expectations), the central bank also stated that insisted that "the house is used to live, not for speculation" positioning, and co-ordinate the real estate financial regulation.

Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, told the twenty-first Century economic report that this means that the basic keynote of the real estate regulation policy will not change, and that the financing policy will maintain a severe state. Under this policy environment, the property market will be further downhill next year.

According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the completion area of Housing enterprises fell by 4.5% in the first half of November this year, and the growth rate of new construction area and construction area has declined. Zhang Dawei believes that this may lead to a decline in the area of commercial housing sales next year, or even exclude the negative growth in sales of commercial housing.

A person in charge of a housing company in Fujian recently reported to the twenty-first Century economic report that this year the company put financial security first, and constantly emphasized sales and money back, so as to prepare for next year. According to the company's judgement, because of the high cost of land acquisition and financing this year, the profits of the whole industry will be compressed next year.

Pacific Securities pointed out that in terms of volume, 2019 will be the "top of history" in the new housing market. In the next few years, "volume price stability" will be the general trend. The agency pointed out that over the past three or four years, the number of new housing transactions has exceeded expectations in recent years. In addition to the catalytic role of monetization, the main force of the transaction is actually overdraft of the future urbanization needs. The demand for new houses in the future will slowly return to the central level of 11-12 billion square meters per year.