2018 ~2019 was a rare year of turbulence in the wool market. In the past year, the price of wool has been fluctuating like a roller coaster due to the aggravation of drought in the main producing areas such as Australia, the outbreak of FMD in South Africa, the Sino US trade friction and other factors. The wool man could not help asking: What's wrong with the market? How long will this turbulence continue?
Major production areas face difficulties and respond positively
In 2018/2019, the export volume of the five major producing countries decreased by 13% compared with the previous year, only 541 thousand tons, a record low for many years. The decrease in export volume of major wool producing countries clearly shows the weakening of demand for wool raw materials.
stay Australian Wool Innovation Limited (AWI) Wal Merriman It seems that the supply of wool depends on three aspects. One is the weather, the two is the fluctuation of the market price, and the three is the stock situation. 。 "At present, drought has seriously affected the normal supply of wool. The drought is long and severe, so as a herdsman, a lot of money is needed to cope with drought. In addition, the price of mutton is high and the money coming fast is bound to compete with Merino sheep for limited resources and conditions. At present, Australia's wool production is the lowest in 90 years, and has fallen below 300 thousand tons. It wants to rebound to 300 thousand tons, and AWI thinks it will take 5~6 years. Due to the dramatic fluctuation of wool prices in recent weeks, the wool industry chain has been greatly affected, especially the supply of raw materials. Therefore, the supply of fiber will recover for some time. At present, the labor cost in Australia is relatively high, and it may be a solution to increase the degree of automation in sheep raising, but it needs a process. Sheep costs + labor costs + uncertain weather factors, herdsmen need to calm down to take a good look at what kind of agricultural activities in order to survive. "Wal Merriman said.
"Contrary to Australia, Uruguay is in good weather this year, and the output of wool is increasing. Uruguay's wool production has been relatively stable over the past two years, with an annual output of 20 thousand tons of raw wool. Over the past 15 years, Uruguay's wool production has been reduced by 70% for various reasons, and the fineness is also changing. The number of wool finely fined over 26 microns has been reduced to 40%, and the vast majority of Uruguay wool has begun to exceed the fine fineness of 26 microns. Lanas Trinidad S.A. Gustavo Inciarte said: "herdsmen in Uruguay now advocate the traceability of wool, though not yet fully popularized, but more and more pastures have seen this trend. Uruguay enterprises are actively adopting advanced technology, while implementing the concept of environmental protection and paying attention to animal protection. "
BKB Isak Staats, South Africa This year, South Africa's wool output is relatively stable, and the number of Merino sheep has increased slightly. But this year, South Africa is also experiencing a drought that has never seen before. It also has a certain impact on wool production. Isak Staats said: "we attach great importance to the quality system of wool industry. After several years of efforts, we have established a better mechanism in the industry. At present, more than 5000 tons of wool listed have passed the quality system certification. In our view, quality needs constant attention. Only by improving quality control and providing the best products can we survive in this market for a long time. "
Segard Masurel (N.Z) Ltd Peter Whiteman "New Zealand's wool production has not changed much in the past two years. At present, there are about 27 million sheep in New Zealand. According to the 2018/2019 fiscal year, the output of raw wool is 138 thousand tons, the output of washed wool is 102 thousand tons, and the export volume is reduced by 9%. In 2019, the climate conditions in New Zealand were stable, and the quality of the wool listed is good. This situation will continue to the second half of 2019. " Peter Whiteman Frankly speaking, at present, New Zealand has put forward the slogan of "1 billion trees", and the 1 billion tree means to compete with animal husbandry sites for the existing resources, so the future of sheep's land resources is unknown. On the other hand, the dairy industry in New Zealand has been slashed in the past two years, and the land can be used for sheep raising. The price of wool and mutton in New Zealand is now at a record high. These factors improve the enthusiasm of the herdsmen to raise sheep to a certain extent.
Mahala Molapo, head of Lesotho food safety department The wool and Ma Haimao in Lesotho are mainly exported to China, Europe, India and Czech. The annual output of wool is 5000 tons, the fineness range is 16 m~24.0 m, and the output of Ma Haimao is about 1000 tons, and the fineness range is about 28 m~34.0 m~34.0. Since May 2018, the government of Lesotho has reformed the trade policy of wool and Ma Haimao, and adopted wool and Ma Haimao licensing system to export wool and Ma Haimao directly to foreign countries. This system has achieved great success, creating employment opportunities and attracting foreign investment successfully.
Price ups and downs test enterprise wisdom
It is usually easy for people to see things in front of them and ignore long-term interests. Chairman of the International Wool Textile Organization Wolf Edmayr Believe that In the face of the uncertain market situation, enterprises should do what they are best at, look far ahead and look at the future of wool in an optimistic way.
Zhou Xiaotian, general manager of Zhejiang new Australia textile company "This year is really difficult for spinning mills, and insufficient market demand is the biggest problem. Wool prices have been increasing continuously for the past 3 years, which is actually a constraint on demand. Last year, when the price of wool rose to a high point, some customers did not turn wool into fancy yarns, chemical fibre yarns or wool. This year, the price of wool has been falling and falling faster. The customers who did not use wool again turn back to wool, but the low point flicker. Customers wonder: why is the price of wool rising so fast? So the next step will depend on market demand and wool price to see whether the gross wool will increase next year. As spinning mills, they will continue to do their best as always, especially as always ensuring product quality and meeting the needs of consumers.
"In the first 9 months of this year, the days of the tops can be described by ice and fire. In March ~7 months, some of the top varieties were in short supply. By August, the situation was reversed, sales demand stopped, and demand began to recover recently. Zhu Xiaofeng, chairman of Zhangjiagang Jin RI Wool Textile Co., Ltd. Say.
"The root cause of the present situation is that the production capacity of wool is low, the production capacity of wool tops is large, the production capacity of the tops is small, and the two ends are small and large. From the perspective of customers, the demand for worsted fabrics in the Japanese market has dropped by at least 20% this year, of which 5% is replaced by other fibers. " Qian Yaoyu, chairman of Zhangjiagang Jin Meng weaving and dyeing Co., Ltd. He said, In the long run, with the improvement of China's economic living standard, the demand for wool for outdoor sportswear will explode in 3~5 years, so the wool industry will have a very good future.
Wu Yaan, general manager of Jiangyin Tian Ping International Trade Co., Ltd. He said, "why do many garment factories use chemical fiber fabrics to make proof? This is because the price of wool is up and down, and is very unstable. Once some products are put out, once the market is put on the market, the price of a certain type of wool will soar."
Michel (International) Limited David Michell "At present, the biggest problem facing carbonized enterprises is overcapacity. Before some enterprises thought that carbonized wool made money, they ignored the reduction in supply. In the process of production, regulatory authorities are increasingly strict in the supervision of carbonized wool. These factors are all challenges for carbonized wool production enterprises. "
Face problems and seek solutions
The wool industry is suffering. For enterprises, facing problems and seeking solutions is a major task at present. Enterprises can gather energy before dawn to welcome the coming dawn.
This year, the fall in Australian wool prices has caused tremendous pressure on buyers all over the world and even the whole Australian wool industry. West Australia coast wool leader William Davidson "In the past two years, there has been a dramatic dramatic increase in the price of wool in Australia, and we respect every contract signed with the customer. Even if the contract price is very unfavorable to us, we insist on fulfilling the contract, so we hope to further solve some of the violations of the contract law in the terms set out jointly by the working group of China and Australia."
Tek wool (Australia) head Evan Croake "There is indeed a phenomenon of breaking the contract or renegotiation in the wool industry. We also understand that business is hard to do at the moment, but the more time it is, the more we need to work together to tide over the difficulties." Yang Xiaoxiong, chairman of Nanjing wool Market Said: "Nanjing wool market continues to promote the integrity of certification work, a considerable number of enterprises have been on the road of good faith certification, we recommend suppliers to cooperate with honest enterprises, but disputes in trade are inevitable. Once there is a dispute, you can sit together and work together to resolve it."
In view of the appearance of foreign fibers in the process of wool washing, Jiang Yuanming, chairman of Changzhou Swiss Lai Trading Co., Ltd. Australia is urged to strengthen management. The Australian side also said that the chip traceability is being pushed forward to eliminate such problems.
Jens Kraus, head of wool sourcing, southern Germany Said: "at present, some of the wool producing countries' climate change, some types or good quality wool products are missing, so we consider establishing the supply chain business to ensure that we can continue to supply some high quality wool products. Today's business can react quickly to the market to ensure that products are needed for customers, so flexibility is very important in future business. Edward Storey, chairman of the Australian sheep farmers association "For Australia, preventing animal epidemics is very important. We have invested a lot of efforts in establishing early warning mechanisms. In Australia, whether sheep or cows, each has traceable chips, which can be found through chips. Once the outbreak breaks out, we will clean up all the animals concerned by spraying and warming up disinfection, and divide the epidemic areas into strict defenses. We hope that the Chinese side will understand our work on the animal epidemic and have confidence in our ability to deal with such problems.
David Michell said: "in the exchange with herdsmen, many herdsmen expressed confidence in wool. Once the drought is over, the herdsmen still want to return to the wool spinning industry. I hope you will be confident that the spring of wool will come again.
