Textile And Chemical Fiber Overcapacity, Sino US Trade Is Hard To Change Short-Term Market Decline

Since September, the polyester market has been shrouded in the shadow of overcapacity expectations. Recently, the implementation of the overhaul device has come to a bad end, and prices have shown signs of stopping.

Recently, many contracts such as PTA and ethylene glycol in domestic commodity futures market have promoted the rise. With the achievement of the first stage of the trade negotiations, there has been a new driving force in the late polyester market.

However, from the recent analysis of the operation of the domestic textile market, although the agreement has been reached, the domestic textile market has not fluctuated violently in the past few times, and the commodity price fluctuation has not had much impact on the market. The whole polyester market is still in a weak state throughout the whole year.

The reason is that in the short term, Xiaobian thinks: in the short term, the polyester raw materials will stabilize and stabilize, and the good trade will boost the confidence of weaving production market, and shift from prudent raw material operation to relative positive optimism. Raw materials stocking stock or part of the increase can also help polyester factories to accelerate their inventory in the coming year. However, when the market enters the end of the year, the terminal will enter a sharp decline in the start-up rate, coupled with the relatively tight fund this year, the situation of raw materials is not too optimistic.

At the same time, for the order, the relative time of the node is too late. At present, the tariff does not increase and there is no exit situation at the end of last year. Therefore, the real order recovery situation, Xiaobian should also be reflected at the beginning of next year.

In the long run, these two factors determine the new trend of the market.

1, trade friction has far-reaching impact on the textile industry, but it is not the only reason.

The tax increase list covers most of China's chemical fibers, yarns, fabrics, carpets, industrial textiles, clothing and household textiles. According to customs data, the total trade volume of textile and clothing exported to the United States every year is about 50 billion US dollars.

Trade barriers directly resulted in a significant decline in China's textile and apparel exports to the United States. Among them, the slender and short silk slipped most rapidly, and the substitution for yarn was stronger. The export of yarn to the United States was relatively optimistic. With the increase of tariffs, the export of textiles will face great difficulties, and the export pressure of clothing home textiles will become more prominent in 2020.

According to the data of China's main export markets, according to customs statistics, in 2019 1-6, China's total export price of clothing and accessories was reduced, and the export volume was $66 billion 574 million, down 4.7% from the same period last year. The number of garment exports was 14 billion 132 million, down 1% from the same period last year, and the average export price of garments was 3.64 US dollars / piece, down 4.7% from the same period last year. Trade friction is one of the reasons for the slowdown in China's exports, but it is not the only reason. It also includes the slowdown in global economic growth and the adjustment of international textile supply chain. For example, the growth of international trade in some emerging countries is outstanding.

In addition, as the external situation changes and the scale of the industry expands, the development of China's textile industry has already entered a period of slowing down of total growth and a period of deep adjustment and transformation. The current development speed is within the scope of reasonable expectations. This is the inevitable result of the development and expansion of the textile industry and structural adjustment. Therefore, tariff increase is not the core factor for the slowdown in the industry. On the contrary, tariff increases speed up the transformation and upgrading of the industry. In the future, the key areas of direct participation in international market competition will gradually shift from clothing to upstream products such as fabrics, fibers and other industrial chains.

Today, there is good news coming from the trade environment, or the easing of the tense textile situation, and the resumption of phased orders or market information, but there are still many uncertainties. We need to be alert to the changing trend of the trade situation.

2, the textile and chemical fiber Market under the prosperity cycle rule is experiencing deep adjustment of overcapacity.

This year, including the PX, PTA, polyester, weaving and other industrial chains are experiencing overcapacity, and the market will be deeply adjusted in this haze.

Since the beginning of 2017, the number of traditional textile cluster looms in the Yangtze River Delta has been decreasing. Meanwhile, the water jet looms of new textile clusters such as Anhui, Northern Jiangsu, Hubei and Jiangxi have blowout. The original enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces owned 100 or 200 looms. After they moved out, they became 300 or 500. The overall quantity of water looms has not decreased but increased.

The new water jet looms are homogenized because of their technical level, resulting in a surplus of conventional products on the market. In fact, after investigation, we found that apart from the loom, warp knitting machines and air-jet looms have varying degrees of surplus in the past two years. According to statistics, if the market is not optimistic this year, there will be 120 thousand looms everywhere. Meanwhile, the shrinkage of clothing consumption will directly lead to the extremely high inventory of products.

Similarly, the overcapacity haze has also appeared in polyester raw materials. Next, the domestic PX is expanding madly, and the supply of domestic PX is further increased. It is also the peak period of the domestic PTA industry, and the overall oversupply is expected to increase.

Of course, when the trade benefits are increasing, the market can change the previous decline. We still need everyone's efforts. (source: Xinhua news agency, network)