Ethylene Glycol Half Month Rose More Than 1000 Yuan / Ton, Direct Spinning Polyester Staple Fiber Is Difficult To Change The Passive Situation.

Since last week, ethylene glycol is still at a high level due to the continuous decline in port inventory. Meanwhile, PET raw material PTA is also very resistant to falling, and the cost of raw materials has been rising continuously, far exceeding the "three day tour" market expected by the operators. But near the end of the year, the downstream capital and inventory pressure is too large, which is very inconsistent with the high price of polyester staple fiber. If the market continues to remain high, it will probably force the downstream to stop ahead of schedule, and the market will enter the next vicious cycle.

List of recent ups and downs of polyester staple products

Unit: Yuan / ton

date	PTA	Glycol	Polyester staple fiber	Pure polyester yarn T32S	Polyester cotton yarn T32S
2019/12/2	Four thousand seven hundred and sixty	Four thousand seven hundred and twenty-five	Six thousand six hundred and seventy-five	Ten thousand and nine hundred	Fifteen thousand and six hundred
2019/12/17	Four thousand eight hundred and eighty	Five thousand eight hundred and sixty	Six thousand nine hundred and twenty-five	Eleven thousand and three hundred	Fifteen thousand four hundred and fifty
Ups and downs	+120	+1135	+250	+400	-150
Ups and downs	+2.52	+24.02%	+3.75%	+3.67%	-0.96%

Since the last half month, ethylene glycol has risen more than 1000 yuan / ton due to pollution and sealing. Meanwhile, PTA stock has not been accumulated. Rumors of Hengli new plant will be postponed to January, and the polyester plant has announced the year-end maintenance plan. However, the actual shutdown time of the plant is mostly concentrated in mid January. So there is still no obvious repository for PTA in December. The spot price is also very strong.

But from the downstream point of view, Haramoto Sa did not expect much of this round of market, so the stock was limited. At the same time, traders did not stock up on the market so that the current situation was very embarrassing for the middle and lower reaches. Catch up, fear of becoming a disk player, do not chase, then face the threat of downtime.

In the late market, because there are not many stocks in the middle and lower reaches, while a small part of small and medium-sized enterprises may start to stop work in the latter part of the mill, most cotton mills and grey cloth factories will stop production in the middle of January. But the premise of the downstream stock is not lost. If PTA/MEG continues to rise, and the price of the mill will not be pushed downward due to the poor end of the year, then the cotton mill and cloth factory will eventually be closed down, and the polyester market will eventually return to the demand led situation.

Therefore, from a comprehensive perspective, the situation of high short-term raw material costs can not be changed for the time being, especially in the market of ethylene glycol. In order to prevent and control risks, it is expected that traders and downstream cotton mills will not blindly catch up. Buyers will still maintain the idea of replenishing just needed goods. The market will eventually return to the fundamentals and the long-term market will remain unchanged.