Behind The 3000 Point Of Shanghai Stock Index Is Expected To Usher In The "High Light Moment".

The spring of brokerages seems to be coming again.

Today's close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.18%, ended at 3017 o'clock. But the market sentiment of the securities sector is still hot. The index of the securities company of China securities rose 0.30% on that day, and the index has risen 10.05% since the 10 trading days since December 5th, exceeding the 5.22 percentage point increase of the Shanghai Composite Index during the same period.

In the industry view, on the one hand, the Shanghai stock index's eleventh breakthrough 3000 points behind the many good results of the "bull market" expectations, is expected to support the performance expectations of brokerage stocks. On the other hand, many brokerages are replenish their net capital at the end of the year. A capital competition for the 2020 market will also start.

Growth signals for securities firms

Over the past 10 trading days, the stock market has risen by more than 10%, which has exceeded the average rise of the three major indexes.

In the industry view, the movements of brokerage stocks often mean the harbinger of bull market.

"The market has expectations on the activity and index recovery, and will bet on the performance expectations of the securities companies. Therefore, the performance of the securities companies is often an important signal to reflect future industry expectations." A non banking financial analyst at a brokerage firm in Beijing said.

In fact, before the bull market started in 2015, the A share market in 2014 first went through a riot of brokerage stocks. During the 19 trading days from November 21, 2014 to December 17th, a lot of brokerage stocks frequently increased, and the total index of securities companies rose by 105.87%. In 2015, the A share market entered the bull market with the highest 5000 points.

From a fundamental point of view, with the increase of A share trading activity, securities companies are also changing their performance last year.

According to Wind statistics, up to 49 of the 61 brokerages whose parent company's caliber has disclosed their financial reports has reached an increase of 68.80% over the previous year in November. Among them, the Great Wall securities, Tianfeng securities, Orient Securities, Nanjing securities, Pacific Ocean and CITIC investment 6 brokerages have achieved a doubling growth rate compared with 2018, while in terms of net profit, Tianfeng securities, Huaxin securities and the Great Wall securities are among the top three.

In the industry view, the improvement of the A share market will bring about a virtuous cycle impact on the fundamentals of the stock market.

"In 2018, the pressure of the performance of many brokerages was stock pledge, and even the annual reports of some brokerages did not fully reflect the risk of stock mortgage explosion." A Beijing securities brokerage credit financing business said, "but as the index stabilizes and promotes the stock price increase, some stock pledge guarantee guarantee ratio may gradually become dangerous, and it will further improve the financial statements of the securities companies."

An important factor for the benefit of brokerage firms, it also includes expectations for the development of carrier class securities institutions.

"If we want to build an aircraft carrier organization, we should gradually keep the volume of securities dealers in line with banks and other institutions, so it will involve capital injection or industry merger, but there is no doubt that the strength of the leading companies will become stronger and stronger." The above non silver financial analysts pointed out.

Ammunition for storage

Another sign of optimism anticipation is the change of the two financial sector.

In December 17th, the balance of margin financing in Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities was 999 billion 387 million yuan, a record high this year. It is worth mentioning that last year's shoulder high position took place in April 24th this year, and the total amount of margin trading in the two cities was 991 billion 521 million yuan. But this year, the Shanghai Composite Index hit the highest point to 3288, which occurred in April 8th, after which the Shanghai Composite Index fell from April 22nd.

However, the financing and margin trading data have been dismantled separately. This year, the size of the financing balance curve is in line with the total scale of the two loans. The margin balance has only shown a sharp rise since July of this year, and the scale of the margin trading has been relatively high since October, indicating that the market investors' expectations for the future are still divided.

The scale of financing shows that a large number of market participants are bullish on the future market under the promotion of a number of favorable factors, but the relative high level of margin trading shows that there are still a lot of funds concerned about the decline of the market and hedging defense ahead of schedule.

In the view of the industry, the two cities have a relatively high margin and a direct positive impact on the securities business. The year-end market has a positive effect on the performance of listed securities companies.

"The increase of transaction scale will directly lead to credit transaction business. Usually, the fees for credit transactions are higher, and at the same time, it can bring more interest income to securities companies." The above non silver financial analyst frankly said, "but at this stage there will be more brokerages to actively replenish capital and liquidity to prepare for the shortage of funds in the next two financial needs."

In addition, under the stimulation of market, the wealth management business of brokerages is also expected to usher in a new imagination.

There is a brokerage Headquarters sales staff said that in recent days, whether it is personal accounts or public fund consignment, performance pressure has significantly weakened. "At present, we are selling Bo Dao long voyage, southern ESG, and began to sell the whole society in December 23rd. Sales are still full." The sales staff said that the fund raising value of the whole society is 3 billion, but it is expected to raise tens of billions by then.

On the other hand, as the market expects to improve, the backstage in the securities business is constantly launching various businesses to win customers. Take Guotai Junan as an example. Recently, investors have launched a series of topics about the early distribution of dividends, attracting customers through the way of investor education.

"After the market has accelerated, the heat of funds and other financial products will also increase. This will also bring positive benefits to the wealth management business that is frequently transformed by securities companies." Aforementioned non bank financial analysts said, "of course, we need to be vigilant against the market expectations of reversing, because the macro fundamentals are expected to grow steadily, and the economic data are optimistic, but whether the fundamentals are bottomed will still have a greater impact on the A shares next year."