The Settlement Is Expected To Be Difficult To Reverse The Loosening Of The Acrylonitrile Market.

At the beginning of this week (December 16th), the price of domestic acrylonitrile market loosened and declined, and the price of mainstream outlet in eastern China dropped from 11500 yuan / ton last week to 11200 yuan / ton, or 300 yuan / ton. Although there are 10500-10800 yuan / ton lower offer, but the actual volume is low, and has not formed a climate, and there is a significant tendency of human smashing, so it has not been included in the mainstream evaluation system.

Since late November, the price rise caused by the delayed restart of Anqing Petrochemical Company lasted only half a month. After entering the market in December, the market experienced a short period of speculation. With the gradual arrival of imported goods and the production of some downstream acrylamide factories, the tight supply situation of the market has been gradually relieved, and the rally has also stopped abruptly after entering the middle. As shown in the figure:

Price trend of acrylonitrile market in China in 2019

After the second half of the month, the acrylonitrile market also continued the traditional trend. The price of the acrylonitrile market showed a soft state, and some people were trying to reduce the settlement level this month. Among them, the bearish expectation is based on the upcoming restart of Anqing Petrochemical Company at the end of the month. Jilin Petrochemical will also resume normal production, and downstream demand will continue to grow relatively limited in the future. In addition, the human smashed plate came from intermediaries and downstream users. For middlemen, although the spot transaction price was higher in the first half of the month, especially during the first half of the year, some of the transactions were over 12500, but at the same time manufacturers' quotations were also rising. On the contrary, after a full supply of goods in the second half of the month, some businesses were eager to complete the plan and let the goods be shipped. The higher settlement expectations caused middlemen to worry about poor profits, so they continued the traditional operation before the settlement began. As for downstream users, the reason for smashing is simpler and more direct. In particular, acrylic users fell sharply at the beginning of this month, and then began to lose money again as the price of acrylonitrile increased, so they sold a small quantity of raw materials at low prices to try to lower their prices.

But by the end of December 20th, the price of acrylonitrile market has dropped to only 11200. The narrower decline is difficult to shake up the expected settlement this month, and the settlement of manufacturers is expected to remain between 11200-11500 yuan / ton. First of all, despite the obvious easing of supply tensions, sales of acrylonitrile plants are low, including Fushun petrochemical and Shandong Hai Jiang. Sales are still tight, so manufacturers offer a firm price of 11500 yuan / ton. Secondly, the cost of imported goods is not low. Some of the transaction prices are heard at $1420, and the price of RMB is near 11500 yuan / ton. The cost of each source is not low, which limits the downward operation space of intermediaries and reduces the intention of further downloading of downstream users. Generally speaking, the demand and supply performance of domestic acrylonitrile market is still acceptable. Even though there is a bearish expectation, the manufacturers still occupy the absolute leading position, which maintains a high price and high price, which directly limits the market operation space.

In conclusion, the price of acrylonitrile market is difficult to fluctuate before settling. However, at the end of the month, when Anqing Petrochemical is restarted as scheduled, the market supply and demand will gradually turn to a weak state, and acrylonitrile prices will go smoothly into the downturn. But considering that there is a certain demand for stocking before the Spring Festival, it is estimated that the price of acrylonitrile prices will not drop significantly. The price of the mainstream port outlet in East China will be 10500, and the space will continue to be limited.