Before The Year, Stocking Market Boosted Polyester Production And Sales, PTA Market Pressure Downward.

Recently, Sino US trade has released positive signals, cost side and macro mood warming to promote the PTA market, and Hengli petrochemical and Zhongtai Petrochemical announced the delay of new installations in a week, which eased the market's pessimistic expectations of PTA supply to a certain extent. With the continuous fermentation of cost, the supply and demand side also changed slightly. For example, the stocking market years ago boosted polyester production and sales, and finished product inventory declined.

However, this does not mean that the supply and demand pattern of PTA is changing. Because polyester factories did not further expand the profit level of cash flow due to the warmer production and marketing, they fell into a vicious circle of finished inventory falling and profit losing.

Recently, the reduction of polyester factories, the stocking of downstream products and the increase of raw materials are the main drivers of the production and sales recovery. However, the restart of the Hon Bang petrochemical plant has made PTA re-enter the storage cycle. At the same time, with the start of maintenance of the polyester plant and the resumption of the maintenance of PTA parts, PTA also returned to the rhythm of pressure downhill before November.

At present, the spot price is 4860 yuan / ton, the main contract is 4922 yuan / ton, the base difference is -62 yuan / ton, the recent processing difference basically fluctuated in 550 yuan / ton.

But this downturn is just the beginning, because in the future, especially before and after the Spring Festival holiday, PTA will face the double attack of cost collapse and overcapacity.

Polyester factories are still pessimistic about the pressure of supply and demand of raw materials in the future, and the situation of future orders will shrink dramatically in the near future. The recent production plan announced by polyester factories can be seen as an early preparation for the future weakening of future demand. Expectations are so pessimistic that the chance of PTA demand improvement is relatively limited.

At present, the polyester production capacity has reached 3 million 290 thousand tons, and there are still 8 million 370 thousand tons of equipment that will enter the inspection service from 12 months to 1 months. According to the current maintenance plan announced by the polyester factory, as the overhaul enterprises are mostly concentrated in January, the polyester production in December is down by less than 1 percentage points, and the polyester production in January will decrease by 8 percentage points.

At present, most of the PTA devices basically end the annual inspection. In late 12, there was only Helen Petrochemical overhaul plan. In January, Fuhai had a negative expectation and there were some uncertainties in other devices. Although China and Thailand petrochemical and Hengli Petrochemical new capacity all appeared delayed production, but the delay is not long, PTA overall supply is still showing a gradual accumulation of the situation.

Recent PTA supply side change expectations table

Polyester load continues to decline and PTA load remains high, which is the current situation of PTA supply and demand. This week polyester load 85.6%, PTA profit demand load is 87.38%, however, the actual PTA load is 93.3%, the PTA load gap is 5.92%, and the actual load has been higher than the demand load for four weeks.

In terms of terminal demand, the downstream market began to enter the traditional off-season in December, and the demand for fabric and fabric was relatively weak. The manufacturers insisted on buying and selling raw materials, and the inventory was generally high.

The overall start up ratio of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has decreased. Most of the weaving enterprises have been dominated by "small batch and multi batches", and most of them have maintained a stable start. At present, the comprehensive boot rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is maintained at around 70%. Terminal factories and clothing orders in autumn and winter are almost at an end.

In the near future, the PTA supply side is equipped with overhaul and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation. China Thailand Petrochemical 1 million 200 thousand tons PTA plan will be put into operation on 25-26 December, and downstream polyester will also enter a gradual reduction stage. It can be seen that the trend of supply and demand weakening will be gradually obvious, which will speed up the PTA storage. Without the new positive stimulus, PTA will become weaker and dominated.

Of course, we should also pay attention to the following risk points:

1, although the Spring Festival holiday is approaching, the current stock of polyester is low, whether it will postpone or cut down production for the sake of stock preparation, we still need to pay close attention to it.

2, the first quarter of the PTA new capacity still has two problems need further observation: first, whether it can be put into production on schedule, and two is whether the load can reach a higher level quickly after commissioning.

3, will OPEC+ continue to deepen production cuts, thereby raising the price of crude oil and supporting PX and PTA. (source: Zhuo Chuang chemical, futures daily, information)