Prospect Of Fund Manager 2020: Layout Technology, Consumption, Medicine, Zhou Qigu

In 2019, A shares went out of the structural bull market, and a large number of funds achieved excellent results. However, many retail investors feel at the other extreme. When the orgy is carnival, a large number of retail investors feel the bear market in 2019.

The performance gap of investment in 2019 is widening. In the face of the coming 2020, how do blue chip fund managers view A shares and how to invest in them? In this regard, the reporter interviewed a number of top ranking performance fund manager.

A shares are available in 2020.

Although the A share market fluctuated in 2019, it is a rare bull market from the whole year. The three indexes rose in all directions. As of December 26th, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen stock index and gem index rose 20.59%, 42.32% and 43.43% respectively this year.

A large number of funds have achieved excellent results. As of December 26th, this year, 17 funds yield over 100%, 724 funds yield over 50%.

So, after the A bull market in 2019, what did the managers of the blue chip look like in 2020?

Southern information innovation A has achieved 119% revenue this year. Mao Wei, general manager of the fund manager and southern fund equity research department, said that the main indexes and industries have undergone a round of valuation recovery this year. It is expected that the impact of corporate earnings on the market will become more prominent next year. At present, the profit and stock cycle of enterprises are at the bottom interval. Under the positive counter cyclical policy, the expectation of macroeconomic stability and corporate earnings stabilization will be further enhanced, and the judgement for next year's market will be optimistic.

The return of the company has reached 96.62% since the beginning of this year. Its fund manager Xiao Ruijin said that 2020 is still a year to come. In the whole year, the return on equity market is still quite attractive. Among them, the growth industry is still one of the main lines of the market.

The the Great Wall dynamic balance fund has ranked second in the past three years in the stock Debt Balance Fund (Class A), and this year's earnings rank the first quarter of the same fund. Liu Su, deputy director of the fund manager and capital investment department of INVESCO the Great Wall fund, believes that the valuation level of the A share market in 2019 has returned from a significant underestimation to a basically reasonable state. In the future, the probability of market liquidity will be stable. It is difficult to see the financial constraints caused by leverage last year, and it is hard to see flooding. The process of expansion of market valuation should come to an end. The overall performance growth of listed companies is still in the process of bottom finding, and the impact of previous trade conflicts will gradually appear in the coming quarters.

"We think we need to pick stocks in the future to boost the share price by the profit growth of the invested enterprises." Liu Su said.

Then, what potential risks will the market need to pay attention to next year? Mao Wei believes that the biggest potential risk may be that it is difficult to determine whether the price of pork will spread to other areas at present. Due to the Spring Festival effect, the high point of CPI may appear in January next year, but if the price of pork rises and spreads to other industries faster and wider than expected, then the CPI may go up sharply, which will bring pressure on monetary policy or corporate profits. It is also a negative impact on stock valuation or pricing.

Multidimensional layout

In 2019, the three best performing industries in the industry were electronics, food and beverages, and household appliances. Up to December 26th, the growth rate has reached 78%, 67% and 56% respectively this year. Most of the blue chip funds are heavily engaged in such industries.

So, will the industry be able to continue next year and how to invest in 2020?

In fact, this year's hot technology, consumption, medicine and other industries are still attracting much attention, especially in the science and technology industry. This year, a large number of blue chip funds are gathering.

Mao Wei, general manager of the research fund of southern fund rights and interests, pointed out that from the global perspective, the best three investment tracks may be consumption, technology and medicine. Technology is related to the cycle of innovation, and the age structure of medicine and population is related to the development of new drugs. "Technology and medicine are two industries that we have long been optimistic about. At present, the biggest catalyst for technology next year will still be 5G, such as the replacement of tidal current and the new application of 5G. In medicine, we think that we should pay attention to innovative drugs, or there are innovative models or heavy volume varieties.

However, after this year's hot market, the valuation of medicine and technology stocks is relatively high. Are there any investment values in these hot industries? "Some of the top quality companies in medicine are at historically high valuations, but this does not prevent such companies from maintaining high valuations for a longer period of time, but also obtaining relatively good absolute returns. For technology companies, we value their earnings explosion. For example, a technology stock is highly valued at present, but if there is a good outbreak next year, the overvalued value will be obviously digested, and it will not be very high then. Mao Wei said.

Xiao Ruijin, a fund manager who flexibly allocated returns, said that in 2020, he was most optimistic about the popularity and interpretation of 5G communication technology.

"With the launch of the 5G base station in the whole world, including China, it is expected that the 5G terminal will show explosive growth in 2020, including smart phones, tablet computers, wearable and Internet of things, and many other forms of products will start switching to the 5G network, and the new product form and business mode will be spawned. This will bring significant investment opportunities. Therefore, 5G is the logic of the growth of our equity market in 2020. 5G terminals and their applications, companies that benefit from 5G technology in the electronic, media and Internet industries will become the focus of the market. " Xiao Ruijin pointed out.

The revenue of the Indo Australian new energy industry fund has reached 99% this year. Its fund manager Feng Mingyuan believes that the development of the science and technology industry is cyclical, such as the upgrading of communication technology. Actually, from the end of 2018, it is accompanied by the beginning of a new cycle of the coming 5G era, which is still in the first half of the competition. Since 5G is not yet large-scale, the penetration of various terminals is still low, and various applications have not been fully excavated. Therefore, in 2020 and even the next three to five years, it can continue to benefit from the dividend of 5G industry chain.

Some blue chip fund managers believe that in 2020, the industry with high valuations should be cautious.

This year, Lin Qingyuan, manager of the three power fund for restructuring and transformation, has caught many investment opportunities of technology stocks, which has gained nearly 80% this year. Lin Qingyuan pointed out that at present, the market's expectations for the consistency of technology stocks are very strong next year. However, from past experience, we should be cautious when everyone in the A share market is optimistic. Lin Qingyuan believes that for technology stocks, the overall next year is not pessimistic, but technology stocks are more structural opportunities.