Interpretation: Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index Expanded Steadily In December 2019

In December 31, 2019, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Center and the China Federation of logistics and purchasing released the China Purchasing Managers Index. In this regard, Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician of the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Investigation Center, made an interpretation.

　　 1. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index has expanded for two consecutive months.

In December, the manufacturing industry PMI was 50.2%, unchanged from last month, and for two consecutive months, it was above the ups and downs. The manufacturing industry continued to expand last month. The main characteristics of this month's manufacturing PMI are: first, production continues to accelerate and demand continues to expand. Influenced by traditional holidays and other factors, the supply and demand ends of manufacturing industry are more active. The production index is 53.2%, up 0.6 percentage points from last month. Among the 21 industries surveyed, 15 industries were located in the expansion area, and the manufacturing index of food and alcoholic beverages, refined tea, textile and clothing, medicine, automobiles, electrical machinery and equipment, computer communication equipment and other manufacturing industries were located in the higher economic range of over 55%. The new order index was 51.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from last month, and has been higher than the critical point for two consecutive months. In order to meet the needs of production, the purchasing intention of enterprises increased, the purchasing volume index was 51.3%, the ratio increased by 0.3 percentage points. Two, the import and export situation has improved, foreign orders have increased significantly, and imports of raw materials have continued to warm up. The new export orders index was 50.3%, up 1.5 percentage points from last month, the first time since June 2018, it has expanded to the expansion interval, the import index is 49.9%, the annulus ratio has increased 0.1 percentage points, and has been rising for two consecutive months. Three, the supply and demand situation has improved, and the price index has both picked up. The main raw material purchase price index and factory price index were 51.8% and 49.2%, respectively, up 2.8 and 1.9 percentage points respectively from the previous month, a 3 month high, and the main raw material purchase price index rose to the expansion interval. From the industry situation, non-ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing, paper printing and other industries, the price index is above 54%. Four, transformation and upgrading continue to push forward, and the growth of new industries is good. From the point of view of key industries, the PMI of high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing and consumer goods industries is 52.8%, 51.3% and 51.4%, respectively, higher than the total 2.6, 1.1 and 1.2 percentage points of the manufacturing industry. The 3 consecutive month is located in the expansion area, and the level of prosperity has continuously increased; the PMI in high energy consuming industries is 48.6%, and the chain ratio has decreased by 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points respectively.

　 Two, non manufacturing business activity index continues to expand

In December, the index of non manufacturing business activity was 53.5%, down 0.9 percentage points from last month.

The service industry maintained a relatively fast growth. The service business activity index was 53%, down 0.5 percentage points from last month, but higher than the same period last year. Among them, railway transportation, accommodation, telecommunications, Internet software, finance, leasing and business services and other industries business activity index is above 55%, business activities are more active; wholesale, road transportation, catering, real estate business and other industries have dropped. From the market expectation, the business activity expectation index is 59.1%, although it has dropped from last month, but it is located in the higher prosperity section, indicating that the service industry is more optimistic about the recent industry development. Among them, air transport, postal express, banking, insurance and other industries business activity index is expected to continue to be located in the high above 65%.

The growth rate of the construction industry has dropped. Construction business activity index and new order index were 56.7% and 52.9%, respectively, down 2.9 and 3.1 percentage points from last month. From the industry category, the housing construction business activity index and the new order index are 54.6% and 46.3%, respectively, which are 9.5 and 8.3 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. The business activity index and the new order index of the civil engineering and construction industry are 57% and 60.6%, respectively, higher than those of 0.7 and 5.3 percentage points last month. With the gradual cold weather and the "two sections" approaching, the construction industry generally presents a seasonal decline. However, affected by the factors such as the acceleration of landing of infrastructure projects, the number of newly signed contracts in the civil engineering and construction industry has increased significantly, and production has been more active.

　　 Three, the composite PMI output index fell slightly.

In December, the composite PMI output index was 53.4%, although a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, it is still higher than the annual average value of 0.3 percentage points. The manufacturing production index and non manufacturing business activity index of the composite PMI output index were 53.2% and 53.5%, respectively.