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    Ethylene Glycol Prices Surged Sharply In December, Expected To Decline In January.

    2020/1/2 12:38:00 0

    Glycol Price

    Ethylene glycol in 2019, or is a steady decline, or steady rise, in December, it is abnormal, a sharp rise, the market negotiation once reached 6000 yuan / ton height, not long, rapid decline, the bottom has not yet seen, at present 5000 yuan / ton fluctuation. What is the demon of ethylene glycol? Let me summarize it and predict the market next month.

    Market overview in December

    Fig. 1 price chart of domestic glycol Market

    Source: lung Chung

    In December, the domestic glycol market got rid of the dull trend, and the price entered a fast lane. The good macroeconomic and the strong shocks of crude oil will drive the commodity market atmosphere to warm up next month to boost market sentiment. Moreover, the stock of basic dock has reached a low level. In the other month, the closure of the terminal and the pollution of cargo ships aggravated the tension of the shortage of cargo. At this point, although the polyester plant maintenance plan has been clear, but the current high starting to maintain, just need to be robust, in the first half of the month just need replenishment and delivery demand, ethylene glycol spot surged, the base pulled up to 700 above, the spot market reached a maximum turnover of 6000 yuan / ton. In the second half of the month, with the appearance of the turning point of the stock storage, the lifting of the load at the supply side and the fall of the polyester start-up in the lower reaches, the market price returned rationally, and the spot fell back to 5000, and the base shrinkage contracted to 400 within. In the same month, the average monthly price in the East China market closed at 5134 yuan / ton, up 11.05% from the previous month.

    Current main port inventory

    Fig. 2 Comparison Chart of main port inventory of ethylene glycol in China

    Source: lung Chung

    As of December 30th, the port of East China's main port area has about 436 thousand tons of ethylene glycol port. Among them, 187 thousand tons in Zhangjiagang, 73 thousand tons in Taicang, 93 thousand tons in Ningbo, 46 thousand tons in Shanghai and Changshu, and 37 thousand tons in Jiangyin.

    In December, the comprehensive operation rate of ethylene glycol in China was 64.92%, and the monthly output was about 666 thousand and 700 tons. Of which, the start-up load of ethylene glycol was about 62.09%, and the monthly output was about 373 thousand and 500 tons. The load of coal glycol production was about 68.92%, the monthly output was about 293 thousand and 200 tons, and the overall domestic supply remained low. While the polyester terminal load at 84.1%, coupled with the low level of imports this month, the East China main port continued the pattern of storage, the highest 1 million 436 thousand tons in the year, compared with the lowest 394 thousand tons in the year, a decrease of 1 million 42 thousand tons, a decrease of 72.56%.

    A bold supply and demand balance sheet

    Table 1 domestic ethylene glycol supply and demand balance sheet

    Unit: 10000 tons

     

    Ten month

    Eleven month

    Twelve month

    One Month E

    Two Month E

    Three Month E

    opening inventory

    Fifty-four point four five

    Forty-nine

    Thirty-six point four four

    Thirty-five point four five

    Forty-three point eight three

    Sixty-five point two four

    yield

    Sixty-six point four seven

    Sixty-seven point three five

    Sixty-six point six seven

    Seventy-one point seven two

    Seventy-four point zero seven

    Seventy-seven point three seven

    Import volume

    Eighty point nine two

    Seventy-nine point four eight

    Eighty-two

    Seventy-eight

    Eighty-five

    Eighty-three

    Total supply

    One hundred and forty-seven point three nine

    One hundred and forty-six point eight three

    One hundred and forty-eight point six seven

    One hundred and forty-nine point seven two

    One hundred and fifty-nine point zero seven

    One hundred and sixty point three seven

    Polyester demand

    One hundred and fifty-one point three zero

    One hundred and forty-five point one eight

    One hundred and forty-four point eight four

    One hundred and thirty point three two

    One hundred and twenty-six point six three

    One hundred and fifty-three point one zero

    Export volume

    Zero point zero three

    Zero point zero three

    Zero point zero three

    Zero point zero three

    Zero point zero three

    Zero point zero three

    Other requirements

    Eleven

    Eleven

    Eleven

    Eleven

    Eleven

    Eleven

    Aggregate demand

    One hundred and sixty-two point three three

    One hundred and fifty-six point two one

    One hundred and fifty-five point eight seven

    One hundred and forty-one point three five

    One hundred and thirty-seven point six six

    One hundred and sixty-four point one three

    Supply and demand gap

    -14.94

    -9.38

    -7.20

    Eight point three eight

    Twenty-one point four one

    -3.76

    Ending inventory

    Fifty point eight zero

    Thirty-four point five three

    Forty-two point six five

    Thirty-five point four five

    Forty-three point eight three

    Sixty-five point two four

    Source: lung Chung

    Bold prediction in January

    In January, the market trend of ethylene glycol is expected to be higher before and after the Spring Festival holiday. Outlying, oil price cut agreement and the impact of Sino US favorable stage is expected to maintain a high level of consolidation, and has a certain support for the trend of commodities. On the basis of ethylene glycol, there are accumulative absolute values on the basis of stock accumulation, which is supported by the need for stocking in the polyester factory. The price shocks in the first half of the month are strong. In the second half of the month, with the closure of the terminal weaving business, the start-up load of polyester is expected to decline significantly. Under the influence of the upward conduction of the industrial chain, it is expected that the price of ethylene glycol will fall down in the second half of the month, reflecting that the spot price market is expected to run at a range of 4700-5000 yuan / ton. (at the same time, we need to pay close attention to the negative impact of new installations such as Zhejiang Petrochemical, Hengli petrochemical and Rongxin on market emotional level).
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