Polyester Filament Prices Fell By 23.88% In 2019, And Polyester Production Capacity In 2020 Was Not As Good As Expected.

Production and marketing of six major textile materials in 2019

1, the main textile raw materials output growth is obvious, polyester production and marketing more than 10%

Changes in main textile raw materials output in 2018~2019

2, the price of main textile raw materials has dropped by more than 12%, and the polyester filament has dropped to an astonishing 23.88%.

Price changes of major textile raw materials in 2018~2019

In 2019, the price of major textile raw materials showed a sharp decline, and all the decline was over 12%. Polyester filament fell by an astonishing 23.88%, leading to a sharp fall in this price.

1, the terminal weaving industry orders are pessimistic.

In 2019, the stock of terminal grey cloth remained high, and the volume of light textile city declined slightly.

On the one hand, from the inventory of grey fabric, affected by the boom of the textile and garment industry, there was a fluctuation of -43 days in Shengze 34.43 days in 2019. The inventory level was at a historical high level in the whole year, and there was no obvious debasement phenomenon. Even in the traditional "Kim Gu silver ten" festival, the stock was only slightly down by 2.5 days.

On the other hand, from the volume of grey fabric, as of November 12, 2019, the total volume of textile fabrics in the Textile City amounted to 2 billion 929 million meters, which was about 3 million meters lower than the 2 billion 932 million M turnover level in 2018. This is also the first time that the volume of light textile city has slipped since 2014.

Looking forward to 2020, the labor bonus of China's textile and garment industry is gradually disappearing, and in recent years, the textile and garment industry has shifted to Southeast Asia and other regions. As far as domestic consumption is concerned, under the gradual slowdown of economic growth, the current consumption demand of textile and garment industry is insufficient; for foreign countries, trade friction between big countries has been frequent in recent years, and the uncertainty of textile and garment peripheral demand has increased.

It is estimated that the order of grey fabrics will be even worse in 2020 than in 2019. The volume of light textile city will continue to decline.

2, high polyester stocks

Figure 1 polyester filament stock

In 2019, the stock of polyester products was high and the pressure was obviously greater than in previous years. From the inventory of polyester filament, the stocks of polyester filament DTY, POY and FDY in 2019 were 19.46 days, 8.62 days and 13.38 days respectively. Compared with the 18.05 days, 10.40 days and 11.14 days of 2018, the stock level increased by 1.41 days, 1.78 days and 2.24 days respectively. Despite the decline in POY stock of polyester filament, it is generally used to produce polyester filament DTY. Therefore, the decline of POY stock of polyester filament does not indicate that the current stock of polyester is in an advantageous position. Instead, the rise of DTY inventory shows the pressure caused by the feedback from terminal grey stock to polyester end.

3, polyester prices continue to move downward.

The upstream raw materials will yield profits, and downstream demand will be flagging. Polyester prices will continue to move downward. As of November 16, 2019, the price of PET chips and PET bottles was 5900 yuan / ton and 6375 yuan / ton respectively. The price of polyester filament POY/DTY/FDY was 6850 yuan / ton, 8550 yuan / ton and 6925 yuan / ton respectively, and the price of polyester staple fiber was 6733 yuan / ton. The price of polyester products has dropped significantly since 2019, which is mainly due to the continuous decline of the price of PTA in the upper reaches. Thanks to the Sino US trade friction and the slowdown in domestic consumption, the boom of the terminal weaving industry has declined significantly, and the price of polyester links has been weak and prices have been innovating repeatedly.

Looking forward to 2020, based on the pessimistic anticipation of the terminal weaving industry, although the "PX-PTA- polyester" industry chain profit transfer to polyester links, polyester production capacity put more plans, but due to the terminal industry downturn, the polyester link price is expected to be weak. Under the increasing production capacity, the industry will be fiercely competitive, and the product profit will be suppressed. The price of polyester will shift to the historical low with the price of raw material PTA.

4, terminal compression polyester profit

Terminal suppression, polyester profit is still available, but there is a phased loss. Since 2019, the profit of PET chips and PET bottles has been 190.49 yuan / ton and 257.23 yuan / ton respectively. The profits of polyester filament POY, DTY and FDY are 301.78 yuan / ton, 325.05 yuan / ton and 290.21 yuan / ton respectively, and the profit of polyester staple fiber is 398.35 yuan / ton.

However, in the upstream raw material prices skyrocketing, some time polyester will still have a stage of loss. In July 2019, the price of PTA rose dramatically, while the orders for polyester downstream weaving industry were insufficient. Under the weak demand of cost, PET bottles, PET chips, polyester filament FDY and DTY all suffered varying degrees of losses. In 2020, the cost of polyester raw materials did not increase substantially. The main risk came from the recession of terminal weaving. Therefore, it is expected that the whole polyester end will be profitable or stable, and there may be a loss in stage.

5, polyester production capacity in 2020 is not as good as expected.

12019 years polyester production plan

By the beginning of November 2019, according to incomplete statistics, China's total production capacity of polyester reached 58 million 690 thousand tons, up 9.15% from the same period last year. During the year, the new polyester production capacity was 3 million 920 thousand tons, of which 1 million 490 thousand was put into operation in the first half of the year, and 2 million 430 thousand tons were put into operation in the second half year.

In addition, the production capacity of polyester in 2019 was significantly lower than that of the 6 million 770 thousand tons in 2018. This is mainly due to the fact that since 2019, the profit of the whole PX-PTA- polyester industry chain has shifted from the PX link to the PTA link, and the polyester link has been in the upstream price and the downstream slump is not good enough, so the capacity delivery has not been as good as expected.

22020 years polyester marketing plan

Looking forward to 2020, although the profit of PX and PTA links has been greatly reduced in the "PX-PTA- polyester textile clothing" industry chain, the profit of downstream polyester industry should be improved under the low cost of upstream raw materials, and polyester production capacity will further expand.

However, according to the current understanding of the terminal weaving industry, the order volume of the weaving industry in 2020 is expected to decline year by year, and the demand for polyester links is not optimistic. Therefore, it is doubtful whether the polyester production capacity will arrive on schedule. (source: Founder metaphase, chemical net coal chemical industry, network)